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Bill Gross & the deep demographic doo doo

socca

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You can read Bill Gross's latest market commentary here:

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2010/Gross+Privates+Eye+August.htm

I agree with him on the following:
+ there has been a decline in the rate of worldwide human population growth
+ the design of modern capitalism incorporates the assumption of expanding human population, consequent expanding demand, and consequent expanding industrial activity to meet that demand
+ modern massive deficit spending may be an unsustainable response to the decline in the rate of population growth by creating artificial demand (e.g., the Keynesian approach)

I disagree with him on the following:
+ there will always be sufficient production to meet demand. Sure, if you're a multimillionaire like Gross then the world seems awash in excess resources. However, a less biased look at the world quickly exposes horrendous human poverty directly linked to ridiculous levels of human overpopulation.
+ the decline in the rate of worldwide human population growth is a problem. In my opinion, the problem is with the design of modern capitalism, not with human reproductive behavior. My dream scenario would be a steady reduction in human population levels lasting for generations, until we get down to a level where there are sufficient resources for both human and non-human animals on this overburdened planet. We may need to substantially redesign capitalism to maximize general well-being in the face of a substantial ongoing reduction in human population.

Whether you agree with me or not isn't important. What's important is that this is a debate that I believe we should be having, but are not. Instead, we get clueless political and religious leaders who talk about growth (population, economic - take your pick) as if it is an unrestricted blessing. I'm sorry, but if you are grossly obese, then additional growth is not a blessing. In my opinion, we are not just individually obese, we are collectively obese; i.e., there are simply far too many of us. Where are the leaders willing to take a contrary-to-conventional-wisdom stand on this issue?

P.S. At the end of his excellent nature documentary, the Life of Mammals:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/life_of_mammals_complete_set/

David Attenborough states (paraphrasing), "We have spent centuries learning to control the environment for the benefit of an expanding human population; perhaps it is time to control the human population for the benefit of the environment." I couldn't agree more. However, voices like his are mostly lost in the wilderness.
 
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You can read Bill Gross's latest market commentary here:+ there has been a decline in the rate of worldwide human population growth

Does a decline in the rate of growth mean that there is negative growth or does it simply mean that we are not growing exponentially as fast. I would assume the latter. Left to nature, everything eventually reaches equalibrium. I would assume that eventually the size of our human population will reach equalibrium also.
 
everything eventually reaches equalibrium.

Actually, or at least theoretically, everything is always in equilibrium. States of dis-equilibrium are not observable, except on a classrom chalkboard. Yes, of course, systems make moves to new equilibria, but the transitions space over new intervening states of equilibria, not new states of dis-equilibria.
 
Does a decline in the rate of growth mean that there is negative growth or does it simply mean that we are not growing exponentially as fast. I would assume the latter. Left to nature, everything eventually reaches equalibrium. I would assume that eventually the size of our human population will reach equalibrium also.

Decline in the growth rate means the population is still growing, but at a lower rate

5% vs 10% for instance. So for a population of 100 million it would mean 10 million new people or 5 million new people (110 million or 105 million)
 
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