Biden's budget would bankrupt America, put national security at risk

[Ahlevah]

We're likely to average 5% for 2021-2025... nominal GDP growth will be elevated for the next few years as well. Meaning, we wont likely face three additional recessions in the next 21 years like what transpired over the course of 1947 - 1960.

Eight trillion dollars worth of stimulus will do that, although I question your 2025 timeframe. The problem becomes one of the law of diminishing returns for each dollar expended and added to the national debt. REAL GDP growth, and in an inflationary environment that’s the only measure that matters, has averaged only 1.1% since 2000, about half its long-term historic rate. As we’ve ballooned debt in this country these past couple of years, I don’t see why we’ll depart too much from that. At least, slower growth to come is what the market in longer-term bonds is telling us.

If we measure from the trough, U.S. GDP has grown by more than 23% since Q1 2020

Again, I would be surprised if trillions of dollars worth of fiscal and monetary stimulus didn’t provide a sugar rush. But that growth gets chopped down to size once you start factoring in inflation and the temporary nature of it. I mean, it looks nice if we build such and such a number of inflated homes with inflated lumber and so forth, or households take their helicopter money and spend it on inflated furniture and appliances, but it’s kind of like a midget who dons a pair of elevator shoes and says, “Hey, look at me! I’m as tall as Shaq!” It’s a temporary illusion, just like your nominal GDP dog and pony show.

Current inflation is primarily the result of supply chain disruptions, while recent spikes in fuel prices are related to global sanctions on Russia for invading its sovereign neighbor.

Isn’t that what Powell and the Fed board said until they changed their tune late last year? Inflation was transitory due to supply chain disruptions? Now analysts are pelting them with eggs because supply chain issues are moderating but the inflation is not. If anything, it’s getting worse.

I agree inflation is likely to abate, but that’s only because the Fed overstimulated, realizes it, and is on a path to rein it in. I mean, if it were only temporary and caused by supply chain issues, why alter interest rate policy to the point that people are expecting seven or eight rate hikes before the end of the year, especially as the economy continues to reopen?

 

[Kushinator]

Isn’t that what Powell and the Fed board said until they changed their tune late last year? Inflation was transitory due to supply chain disruptions? Now analysts are pelting them with eggs because supply chain issues are moderating but the inflation is not. If anything, it’s getting worse.

Political reactionaries have made false statements, and it gets repeated across right wing media platforms. Transitory isn't referring to some short duration of time. Instead, it refers to the transition period between initial lockdown (public and private) measures and reopening.

I believe annual CPI % change goes below 3.5% by December, and will be around 2% by the end of 2023.

I agree inflation is likely to abate, but that’s only because the Fed overstimulated, realizes it, and is on a path to rein it in. I mean, if it were only temporary and caused by supply chain issues, why alter interest rate policy to the point that people are expecting seven or eight rate hikes before the end of the year, especially as the economy continues to reopen?

The economic conditions have changed. So far, we've averaged 550k monthly job creation since 2021, and GDP growth that is at it's highest level since 1978. Our current economic reality doesn't require ZIRP and liquidity facilities. U.S. economic growth has exceeded expectations across the board.

 

[Ahlevah]

Political reactionaries have made false statements, and it gets repeated across right wing media platforms. Transitory isn't referring to some short duration of time. Instead, it refers to the transition period between initial lockdown (public and private) measures and reopening.

I see a veritable parade of economists and bankers on CNBC and in the financial press saying the Fed overshot the mark. Then I see Fed hawks like James Bullard, not necessarily coming clean on the too much stimulus argument, but nonetheless saying this inflation, no matter how one splits his nits and defines the word, isn’t “transitory.”

The economic conditions have changed. So far, we've averaged 550k monthly job creation since 2021, and GDP growth that is at it's highest level since 1978. Our current economic reality doesn't require ZIRP and liquidity facilities. U.S. economic growth has exceeded expectations across the board.

Get your calendar out again: assuming the Fed doesn’t get weak-kneed, there won’t be a soft landing. In fact, things could get really ugly.

 

[Kushinator]

I see a veritable parade of economists and bankers on CNBC and in the financial press saying the Fed overshot the mark.

People have opinions. We are not just talking about CNBC contributors who are talking about monetary policy though. A bunch of GQP folks are talking about fiscal policy on this site, blaming inflation growth on the Biden administration for stimulus in early 2021.

Then I see Fed hawks like James Bullard, not necessarily coming clean on the too much stimulus argument, but nonetheless saying this inflation, no matter how one splits his nits and defines the word, isn’t “transitory.”

You're more than welcome to link to this release or quote.

Get your calendar out again: assuming the Fed doesn’t get weak-kneed, there won’t be a soft landing. In fact, things could get really ugly.

We can play the prediction game but what's the point without some skin? Would you like define your forecast properly and then maybe we can discuss terms. Something along the lines of a $100 DP donation?

 

[Ug make hammer]

Isn’t that what Powell and the Fed board said until they changed their tune late last year? Inflation was transitory due to supply chain disruptions? Now analysts are pelting them with eggs because supply chain issues are moderating but the inflation is not. If anything, it’s getting worse.

Supply chain disruptions may start an inflationary cycle, but why should workers accept that it's over before they've had matching pay rises?

If retailers don't like it, then rather than putting up prices some more they should admit that they cashed in due to scarcity, and break the inflationary loop. At least some of them (grocery stores for instance) don't have the excuse that they need to recover from 2020, it was a bumper year for them as people bought more "essentials" with the money they were not allowed to spend on luxuries.

 

[Ahlevah]

You're more than welcome to link to this release or quote.

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bullard Says Inflation Readings 'Concerning'

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Thursday he's worried about recent high inflation readings and is not completely confident the spike will be transitory."This is concerning. While I do think there's a probability that inflation will dissipate naturally over the next six months, I...

marketnews.com

We can play the prediction game but what's the point without some skin? Would you like define your forecast properly and then maybe we can discuss terms. Something along the lines of a $100 DP donation?

Sure. Rather than me playing 20 Questions trying to determine what you mean by “define properly,” give me an idea of what you have in mind.