I don't belong to either party, I'm viewing this more as a strategist or perhaps an handicapper. I think Trump being so in your face and his obnoxious personality worked to his favor in the primaries and general election of 2016. It was new and it gained Trump perhaps a billion dollars of free media. Now since then, Trump's obnoxious personality, his rude persona has had four years to grate on folks. 2020 is entirely different from 2016.
What worked for Trump in 2016 is working against him in 2020. I've said all along, ever since Trump became president if Trump had the personality of a Reagan, a Bill Clinton or even an Obama, his approval ratings would have been 10 or plus points higher. He probably would either be neck and neck with Biden today or ahead. But 4 years of very unpresidential behavior and his childish antics of calling others names and his temper tantrums have cost him some support. Especially among swing voters, those non-affiliated, less to non-partisan folks.
It may be that they don't like Biden all that much, but Biden comes across as more of what they expect a president to act like. It's easy to dismiss this and go straight to policy. But I don't think these independents if you want to call them that has got that far. They see a man, a person, an individual they don't like the way he behaves and stops there.
Remember back in 2018 when a lot of Republicans, Trump supporters on this site were predicting the GOP would gain seats in the House because of the great economy. I said differently. I said Hillary Clinton wasn't on the ballot to save the Republicans in the midterms, that this would be a vote against Trump behavior and his uncouth personality. I hit that nail on the head with my forecast.
I don't think these folks, swing voters which Trump won in 2016, which went heavily Democratic in 2018 are that much for Biden. The support for him may be lukewarm if that. But I think, at least as of today, they'll vote for him because they dislike the person who is now president and his what is termed as childish, schoolyard bullying behavior. That isn't how most expect a president to act. Which brings me back to the beauty contest analogy. Then perceptions of the two candidates. Whether true or not is irrelevant, once a perception is gained, it is almost impossible to change.
Trump's only hope as I see it is to get this election away from personalities, projected persona of the two major party candidates which he is bound to lose if he doesn't. Back into the policy arena which with Trump always being Trump will be a very steep mountain to climb. My two cents anyway.