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Biden is NOT doing better than Clinton

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Slavister

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With all the people celebrating Biden's rise in the polls, I want to point out that

both RCP and 538 show that Clinton was doing just as well vs Trump as Biden is doing as of today.​

As we all know, it does NOT matter if Trump loses by 3 million or 10 million popular vote. What matters is whether he wins Electoral College.

RCP shows that Clinton was ahead of Trump by just a little more than Biden is over Trump in battleground states.



Yes, above graph is mislabeled a bit - Red means Clinton vs Trump is doing better than Biden vs Trump, Blue means Biden is doing better. You can clearly see that when you navigate to above link and look at the two separate graphs of Clinton vs Trump and Biden vs Trump. This one is the difference between the two.

538 predicted Clinton chance of winning as of Oct 7 to be 82%. It's predicting Biden's chances as 83%.

2016:



2020:




Even more concerning is that Russians have now had 4 more years to learn how to break into our vote counting systems while this administration is nothing but cooperative with them. Last time around, Russians tried to break into all 50 States election systems. All they need is to get into few key counties (and of course to help in 2016, Trump shared internal polling data with them).

In addition, Trump administration will succeed more in vote suppression than similar efforts in 2016.

Neither ability to steal election by hacking or cheating is accounted for in above graphs / polling / prediction models.

Sorry folks, this is far far far from over.
 

Turnout is nothing like in 2016.
 
Slavister said:
Sorry folks, this is far far far from over.
Click to expand...

Of course nothing is a certainty in politics, but Biden is leading Trump in most battleground states beyond the margin of error (MOE). Clinton didn't accomplish that.
 
Cardinal said:
Turnout is nothing like in 2016.
Click to expand...

I sure hope so but that's just hope... I know we have a LOT more mail in ballots sent in now but arguably that's due to pandemic and fear of mail slowdown.

Rogue Valley said:
Of course nothing is a certainty in politics, but Biden is leading Trump in most battleground states beyond the margin of error (MOE). Clinton didn't accomplish that.
Click to expand...

According to the polls and links in the OP, Clinton did just that in fact (as of Oct 7, 2016)... unless you are aware of polls' margins-of-error being significantly larger in 2016 vs 2020.

element94 said:
Something else to consider:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html
Click to expand...

Not very important at national level (who cares if more people in CA and NY disapprove of Trump). If you have such data for battleground states - the ones that ACTUALLY decide the election - let's see it. But even then, that should already be baked into the polls in the OP. If people vote for Trump despite disapproving of him, he is still going to win.
 

Pretty noteworthy when you considered his disapproval rating is up overall, and in comparison to Obama. It's got to sting.
 
Hillary was so easy to hate, Trump has taken her place this election. Trump makes Hillary look like a loveable puppy. Trump continues to make people look in disbelief with every tweet he sends.
 
Slavister said:
I sure hope so but that's just hope... I know we have a LOT more mail in ballots sent in now but arguably that's due to pandemic and fear of mail slowdown.
Click to expand...


2016 had severely depressed turnout. Not so in 2018 and 2020.

People keep comparing 2020 to 2016 because it's a Presidential election (understandable), but 2018 is a much more fitting analogy.
 
Cardinal said:
2016 had severely depressed turnout. Not so in 2018 and 2020.

People keep comparing 2020 to 2016 because it's a Presidential election (understandable), but 2018 is a much more fitting analogy.
Click to expand...

You are right about 2018 turnout being high.

Here is a problem though... 2016 turnout was 3rd highest since the 1970's! It was very high already by historical standards...

(Also, even with higher turnout, you have to balance this against higher success rate in voter suppression AND the hacking of voting counts backed by friendly administration.)

US&THEM said:
Hillary was so easy to hate, Trump has taken her place this election. Trump makes Hillary look like a loveable puppy. Trump continues to make people look in disbelief with every tweet he sends.
Click to expand...

Trump support is unwavering though... at least according to the polls... Still, if your point is that this hate for Trump will turn out more people, I hope you are right but please see my response above to Cardinal.

I am definitely concerned...
 
You meet people who did vote for Trump and now will vote for Biden. You do not meet anyone who voted for Hillary and now will vote for Trump.
Trump’s base is a cult.
 
US&THEM said:
You meet people who did vote for Trump and now will vote for Biden. You do not meet anyone who voted for Hillary and now will vote for Trump.
Trump’s base is a cult.
Click to expand...

Maybe you do, but I live in a very red area and I have not heard of a single person like that. There are just as many if not more Trump signs around and definitely less Biden signs here. (I did read about this guy going from blue to red. I agree though I also heard of stories in the media of people going red to blue.)
 

3rd highest since the 1970's, huh? 2020 is expected to have the highest turnout since 1908.

Also, here's a map of 538's state averages with 2 points awarded to every state known to have voter suppression practices.

 
Trumpies always stuck with Rasmussen because it was the only poll to predict Trump as the winner, that's the same Rasmussen poll that has Biden leading Trump by 12 points today less than 30 days out. Yes, Biden is doing better than Clinton but Trump is a far weaker candidate this time.
 
Cardinal said:
3rd highest since the 1970's, huh? 2020 is expected to have the highest turnout since 1908.
Click to expand...

I see multiple sources report 1 guy predicting it (McDonald), but hey, I hope he is right. Fingers crossed.

Cardinal said:
Also, here's a map of 538's state averages with 2 points awarded to every state known to have voter suppression practices.
Click to expand...

Do you have a link? Can't find it there.

element94 said:
But he IS doing way better than Trump!
Click to expand...

So did Clinton on October 7...
 
The base needs to expand and it hasn’t happened.
 
Slavister said:
I see multiple sources report 1 guy predicting it (McDonald), but hey, I hope he is right. Fingers crossed.



Do you have a link? Can't find it there.



So did Clinton on October 7...
Click to expand...

I compiled that map myself using 538's state averages. Then, like I said, I added two pro-trump points to every state with known voter suppression laws and practices.

0-.9: too close to call (brown)
1-4: lead inside the margin of error (gray red or blue)
4.1 - 9.9: lead outside the margin of error (light red or blue)
10-14.9: safe (mid red or blue)
15 and up: fortress state (dark red or blue)

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

To get to where I was, make sure the drop-down menu says "President: general election" then go state by state to the right of that.
 
Cardinal said:
I compiled that map myself using 538's state averages. Then, like I said, I added two pro-trump points to every state with known voter suppression laws and practices.
Click to expand...

Interesting... Well, if we had same kind of map for 2016, October 7, then we'd be able to compare it

Maybe if you can do this just for your toss-up states, that might be an interesting comparison... Clicking on each state using this 538 map (and rolling back to Oct 7), I see that

Clinton (+) vs Trump (-)
WI +7.4
NV +3.4
MI +7.5
PA +6.3
VA +8.4

KS -9.2
MO -5.6
SC -6.7

IA +0.8
TX -6.8
OH +1.2
GA -3.6
NC +2.2

AZ -0.2
FL +3.0
ME +9.1 (only see whole state)

Did I get all the middle ones? Not sure how this would compare to your map. Clearly TX is more in play now, but otherwise? Looks like NV would be gray now instead of blue

Anyway, if you just change the above swingable-ish states, what would your top summary look like for Clinton vs Trump?
 
What day was that map compiled on

It's difficult to use this as a comparison because I can't find the approval numbers in those states for this exact day.
 

Beware. there is a Russian hiding under your bed who is going to get you. The good news is there are 5 Chinese in your closet.
 

Okay, I figured it out. Here's my compiled map from then, still applying the two points toward trump for Republican cheating.

Although this map is still technically better for Trump than the current one, it should really highlight two things:

1. Approval does not equal voter turnout. Voter turnout was deeply depressed in 2016, and it is wildly excited now. What this means is that approval will have a much greater correlation to turnout this year.
2. The impact of an investigation into Clinton and the resulting crash in her approval can't be overstated. These factors don't exist for Biden.

So I've included two maps. The first is Clinton's lead on October 7, the second is the map after the Comey letter and on election day. Compare the second map to the first map I showed you. Bear in mind that ALL of the maps I've provided in this thread contain an automatic two point lead for Trump in states known to cheat.




These maps illustrate what Nate Silver has always been saying, which is that the Comey Letter is specifically responsible for sinking Clinton's lead inside the margin of error.
 
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