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Biden Ended August With $141 Million More in Cash Than Trump

Clinton was up by 8 in October of 2016, per RCP. Trump closed the gap to +3 in just a few weeks.

There is no methodology there to dispute.

In terms of oversampling Democrats, the facts are the facts. YouGuv reached +1 more Dems than Reps. Texas voters register by party, the registration is Republican +8.

Do you feel the same way about Rasmussen? Do you dispute the methodology of "people who use statistics to make a living?" Because according to Scott Rasmussen, who uses statistics to make a living, Biden is only up 1 per national popular vote, and a week ago, Trump was winning the popular vote.

Do you feel the same way about ABC's new poll which has Trump +4 in Florida? And which has Trump +1 in Arizona?

Asking us to assume pollsters are accurate is like asking us to assume Joe is mentally fit to take office.

CNN had Biden up +14 in their first poll, and that magically dwindled to +4 after they stopped the oversampling of black voters. Pretty accurate, eh?
Even Rasmussen has Biden ahead.

As for the ABC poll, it appears to be an outliner of all other polls.

Sept polls.png
 
The same is true today, in terms of free publicity. For the most part.

So it’s good that Trump is out of money cause he’s stealing from his own campaign.
 
Hillary far, far outspent Trump in 2016. I would remember that if I were you.

Trump's negligence hadn't killed 200,000 Americans and crashed the economy at that point.

"What have you got to lose?" he used to ask. Now we know!
 
Trump's negligence hadn't killed 200,000 Americans and crashed the economy at that point.

"What have you got to lose?" he used to ask. Now we know!
Yes, Biden has this election in the bag. No need for the left to be energized to get out and vote with the virus and all. Just read about the results in the New York Times the next day. They never get election results wrong!
 
Yes, Biden has this election in the bag. No need for the left to be energized to get out and vote with the virus and all. Just read about the results in the New York Times the next day. They never get election results wrong!

You sound demoralized.
 
You sound demoralized.
Just pointing out to everyone on the left that if you think the election is in the bag, there is no reason to be energized to get out and vote. Biden will win without your help.
 
Just pointing out to everyone on the left that if you think the election is in the bag, there is no reason to be energized to get out and vote. Biden will win without your help.

We've got over 200,000 reasons to turn out to vote.
 
The RCP combined poll had Clinton up by 3.2% in national polls. Guess what? She got 2.1% more in the popular vote. In the swing state polls, Biden is outperforming Clinton. The only two that I'm worried about are PA and FL, which are within the margin of error. I'm not saying Trump can't win/ It's just the odds are against it.

Biden chances are still decent even he loses both PA and FL. He just needs to flip Mich, Wisc, and Arizona (which all 3 look pretty good and it will give him exactly 270) or NC which is 50/50.....If Biden wins PA or FL it will solidify a Biden win...Just my opinion.
 
Biden chances are still decent even he loses both PA and FL. He just needs to flip Mich, Wisc, and Arizona (which all 3 look pretty good and it will give him exactly 270) or NC which is 50/50.....If Biden wins PA or FL it will solidify a Biden win...Just my opinion.
Not really an opinion. It's just math. Presuming Biden takes the solid blue states, plus AZ, NM, CO and NV, that's 269 electoral votes. Then, he needs either NC, FL, PA or the one House district in Maine. Of course, both IA and GA is nearly tie but I expect them to go Trump.

One can play with the numbers on https://www.270towin.com/
 
Everyone talking about billionaires early in this thread is dumb. $2,800 per person is the maximum limit for a presidential election campaign.
 
Hillary far, far outspent Trump in 2016. I would remember that if I were you.
Hillary, in her arrogance, also avoided tossup States to her own detriment, not to mention many Libs and Indes disliked Hillary and avoided voting for her or trump. That is not the case in this election, Biden is visiting all the states and doing very well and is not taking anything for granted, plus trump is probably the most disliked President and American in recent history, so......
 
Everyone talking about billionaires early in this thread is dumb. $2,800 per person is the maximum limit for a presidential election campaign.
Don't forget businesses are now considered to be People and their limits are far higher. Just saying.
 
Hillary, in her arrogance, also avoided tossup States to her own detriment, not to mention many Libs and Indes disliked Hillary and avoided voting for her or trump. That is not the case in this election, Biden is visiting all the states and doing very well and is not taking anything for granted, plus trump is probably the most disliked President and American in recent history, so......
Yes the election is over. Biden's got it wrapped up. There is no urgency to vote for Biden because your vote won't count because Biden's already got plenty of votes.
 
Even Rasmussen has Biden ahead.

As for the ABC poll, it appears to be an outliner of all other polls.

This is where your argument contradicts itself.

You claimed that the polls were accurate in 2016, given RCP showed Clinton +3, the results were Clinton +2, and Trump won.

So if Rasmussen has Biden +1, and they are accurate, this would imply a Trump victory. If EC patterns hold up.

ABC is the highest rated polling firm by 538. According to you all, this isn’t simply because it runs 538. That would be a conspiracy theory lol.

Even Nate Silver just published an article verifying that many polling firms underrepresent non-college educated voters. Which is what I’ve been claiming for months.
 
Don't forget businesses are now considered to be People and their limits are far higher. Just saying.
Corporations can't contribute to a campaign, but after the citizens united decision, they can pour as much as they want to into a super-PAC. So, your point is well taken.
 
Not really an opinion. It's just math. Presuming Biden takes the solid blue states, plus AZ, NM, CO and NV, that's 269 electoral votes. Then, he needs either NC, FL, PA or the one House district in Maine. Of course, both IA and GA is nearly tie but I expect them to go Trump.

One can play with the numbers on https://www.270towin.com/
My math says differently...Regarding Main and Nebraska and their split I have Biden picking up 3 in Maine (winning popular vote & District 1) and picking up 1 in Nebraska (District 2) this should give him exactly 270. Maybe Im too optimistic about Neb. District 2, Trump only won it by 2 points in 2016 in this District, but Biden is polling pretty well at the moment. with latest polls showing him up 6-7 points..

Take those 4 points from the Maine/ Nebraska split and flip Wisc, Mich, and Arizona gives Biden exactly 270....Then consider NC which is 50/50 but not needed.
 
My math says differently...Regarding Main and Nebraska and their split I have Biden picking up 3 in Maine (winning popular vote & District 1) and picking up 1 in Nebraska (District 2) this should give him exactly 270. Maybe Im too optimistic about Neb. District 2, Trump only won it by 2 points in 2016 in this District, but Biden is polling pretty well at the moment. with latest polls showing him up 6-7 points..

Take those 4 points from the Maine/ Nebraska split and flip Wisc, Mich, and Arizona gives Biden exactly 270....Then consider NC which is 50/50 but not needed.
I'm nervously optimistic, knowing how the GOP suppresses votes. GA is neck and neck, well within the margin of error. I think PA will go Biden. Can't predict NC, which is within the margin of error. Who knows, maybe we'll have an upset in Texas and it will be all over early.
 
I'm nervously optimistic, knowing how the GOP suppresses votes. GA is neck and neck, well within the margin of error. I think PA will go Biden. Can't predict NC, which is within the margin of error. Who knows, maybe we'll have an upset in Texas and it will be all over early.
Agreed....I was just throwing out the possibility of Biden can still win if he loses PA and Florida (and technically NC)....If Trump loses either PA or FL its over...
 
This is where your argument contradicts itself.

You claimed that the polls were accurate in 2016, given RCP showed Clinton +3, the results were Clinton +2, and Trump won.

So if Rasmussen has Biden +1, and they are accurate, this would imply a Trump victory. If EC patterns hold up.

ABC is the highest rated polling firm by 538. According to you all, this isn’t simply because it runs 538. That would be a conspiracy theory lol.

Even Nate Silver just published an article verifying that many polling firms underrepresent non-college educated voters. Which is what I’ve been claiming for months.
Depends which ABC poll you quote. The poll of 613 likely voters has Trump +4 while their 765 registered voter poll has Biden up 1. None of that is definitive.
 
Depends which ABC poll you quote. The poll of 613 likely voters has Trump +4 while their 765 registered voter poll has Biden up 1. None of that is definitive.
If you use registered voters, Biden’s national lead cuts down, by a lot. Nearly every stat referenced in this forum is likely voters.

I’m not saying Biden can’t win, but I seriously doubt it will be “over early,”

There’s no way Biden is getting Texas, and I wouldn’t count on Arizona either.
 
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