- Joined
- Sep 28, 2011
- Messages
- 16,506
- Reaction score
- 12,793
- Location
- SF Bay Area
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Conservative
The western press loves to print heroic stories about Ukraine and its military achievements. It equally enjoys printing headlines over "Putin's mistakes" and "low morale" and "elites starting to question Putin's decisions". Sorry to say, while all of this is true none of this addresses some fundamental realities that suggest that in the end, Putin will win. Here are the reasons:
- Putin cannot be replaced. He has the KGB (now called the FSB) behind him. He is surrounded by yes men, and he has laid the blame on less popular and unknown members of his government. His most likely replacement, General Souji, was once the second most popular personality in Russia but has been sidelined. Putin can't really replace him without the public being disturbed, but he can make him an "unperson" to carry the blame for failure.
- The shock of Ukraine's resistance has worn off Putin. Putin is now in this for the long haul and has no intention of negotiating until he is able to make an offer that Ukraine cannot refuse. To that end, it is likely he will call up reserves to replace losses and start new conscription. Thankfully, NATO has not detected any movement of mercenaries from Syria or elsewhere - although the Wagner group is being asked to increase fighters substantially.
- The new Russian strategy is based on what they should have done at wars start. Kiev and perhaps Kharkov are no longer primary targets. Around Kiev, in particular, the Russians have retreated to "deconfliction" lines, meaning defensive lines intended to screen off future attacks. Most likely supply difficulties make further attacks by Russia on the northern Ukraine futile, and Russia is willing to retreat. In the process, Russian resources are being shifted to the Donbas and southern fronts.
- This has several benefits. First the separatists have made progress and seizure of more eastern territory is possible. Second, Russians have taken a key port and can freely ship a huge tonnage of supplies and drop them off at the nearby front without trucks. Third, Russian marines are a significant contributor to land forces and unlike the conscript army, are very good soldiers immune to panic and demoralization.
- The strategy is twofold...take the rest of the Southern coast (i.e. Odessa) and Ukraine can no longer obtain supplies or ship wheat and other goods for export. Moreover, it creates an opportunity for envelopment of Ukraine forces in the east.
- Here is the difficulty for Ukraine. They have the firepower necessary for localized tactical gain, but not the offensive weapons needed to make strategic breakthroughs. The main supply port, was in the news recently when the highly improbable happened...somehow Ukraine found a way to sink a large ship. This likely won't be repeated. Ukraine does not have much in the way of weapons that can reach the port. Unlike Russia it has very few medium range ballistic missiles. If this port cannot be shut down permanently, the supply problems for southeastern Ukraine will be cured and an endless amount of armor, fuel, and arms can be provided to Russian forces.
- If Russia can breakthrough to Odessa, naval forces will land and the City will be isolated and lost. Ukraine does not have anti-ship missiles in any significant quantity, at least none that can his Russian LST's miles off the coast.
Under current conditions, Ukraine can (at best) create a stalemate. So unless sanctions start hitting Russia much harder, and production of good and services fall dramatically, Ukraine will likely fall. Without offensive firepower, it is more likely than not.
- Putin cannot be replaced. He has the KGB (now called the FSB) behind him. He is surrounded by yes men, and he has laid the blame on less popular and unknown members of his government. His most likely replacement, General Souji, was once the second most popular personality in Russia but has been sidelined. Putin can't really replace him without the public being disturbed, but he can make him an "unperson" to carry the blame for failure.
- The shock of Ukraine's resistance has worn off Putin. Putin is now in this for the long haul and has no intention of negotiating until he is able to make an offer that Ukraine cannot refuse. To that end, it is likely he will call up reserves to replace losses and start new conscription. Thankfully, NATO has not detected any movement of mercenaries from Syria or elsewhere - although the Wagner group is being asked to increase fighters substantially.
- The new Russian strategy is based on what they should have done at wars start. Kiev and perhaps Kharkov are no longer primary targets. Around Kiev, in particular, the Russians have retreated to "deconfliction" lines, meaning defensive lines intended to screen off future attacks. Most likely supply difficulties make further attacks by Russia on the northern Ukraine futile, and Russia is willing to retreat. In the process, Russian resources are being shifted to the Donbas and southern fronts.
- This has several benefits. First the separatists have made progress and seizure of more eastern territory is possible. Second, Russians have taken a key port and can freely ship a huge tonnage of supplies and drop them off at the nearby front without trucks. Third, Russian marines are a significant contributor to land forces and unlike the conscript army, are very good soldiers immune to panic and demoralization.
- The strategy is twofold...take the rest of the Southern coast (i.e. Odessa) and Ukraine can no longer obtain supplies or ship wheat and other goods for export. Moreover, it creates an opportunity for envelopment of Ukraine forces in the east.
- Here is the difficulty for Ukraine. They have the firepower necessary for localized tactical gain, but not the offensive weapons needed to make strategic breakthroughs. The main supply port, was in the news recently when the highly improbable happened...somehow Ukraine found a way to sink a large ship. This likely won't be repeated. Ukraine does not have much in the way of weapons that can reach the port. Unlike Russia it has very few medium range ballistic missiles. If this port cannot be shut down permanently, the supply problems for southeastern Ukraine will be cured and an endless amount of armor, fuel, and arms can be provided to Russian forces.
- If Russia can breakthrough to Odessa, naval forces will land and the City will be isolated and lost. Ukraine does not have anti-ship missiles in any significant quantity, at least none that can his Russian LST's miles off the coast.
Under current conditions, Ukraine can (at best) create a stalemate. So unless sanctions start hitting Russia much harder, and production of good and services fall dramatically, Ukraine will likely fall. Without offensive firepower, it is more likely than not.
Last edited: