Belarus says Russian troops to stay in country indefinitely

[Rexedgar]

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Belarus falls without a shot.
What must Lukashenko see in the mirror?

 

[Juin]

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Belarus falls without a shot.
What must Lukashenko see in the mirror?

Same thing like Syria's Assad: Security. Putin is running a Security Guard company. And his folder is impressive with results from Chechnya and Syria. His clientele may incr4ase in the future

 

[Roadvirus]

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Belarus falls without a shot.
What must Lukashenko see in the mirror?

Pooty's keeping them there to guarantee he has at least one butt buddy in power in the region to rely on.

 

[slavablueberryjam]

This must've been the plan all along. To annex Belarus while making Ukrainians fear for invasion, good job. It fooled me.

 

[jpn]

This must've been the plan all along. To annex Belarus while making Ukrainians fear for invasion, good job. It fooled me.

It is Sunday evening, February 20, 2022. No major invasion has yet unfolded, and no one has announced major sanctions either. Yet Ukraine is already suffering the consequences of renewed Russian aggression. Airlines are pulling their planes out of the country. Foreign investment is on hold. Ukrainian soldiers died this past weekend, murdered by Russian bullets. Ukrainian President Zelensky mentioned one of them, Captain Anton Sydorov, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian, who sang and played the guitar. He was 34 years old, the father of three daughters.​

​

Meanwhile, Russia pays no price. Not for Sydorov; not for the Crimean Tatars, the peninsula’s indigenous inhabitants, who have been “disappeared,” arrested and tortured; not for the destruction of life and property thanks to the war in the East.​

​

In the meantime, despite everything that was said, everything that was promised, and everything that was discussed, Ukraine will fight alone.​

--Anne Applebaum, There are No Chamberlains in this Story. The Atlantic

No Churchills, either.

 

[Phys251]

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Belarus falls without a shot.
What must Lukashenko see in the mirror?

I wonder if Putin is going to keep the troops on the border of Ukraine and try to bait them into firing the first shot.

Like a quarterback trying to draw the defense offside.

 

[jpn]

I wonder if Putin is going to keep the troops on the border of Ukraine and try to bait them into firing the first shot.
Like a quarterback trying to draw the defense offside.

Great analogy. In fact, that's exactly what's happening.

“Everything leading up to the actual invasion appears to be taking place,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “All of these false-flag operations, all these provocations to create justifications — all that is already in train.”

US alleges Russia planning false flag operation against Ukraine using 'graphic' video

US officials alleged Thursday that Russia has been preparing to "fabricate a pretext for an invasion" of Ukraine by creating "a very graphic propaganda video" that would depict a fake attack by Ukraine against Russia.

www.cnn.com

 

[justoneman]

Belarus and Russia is a very complex relationship. First off Belarus is basically a Russian speaking country. The Belarussian language is mostly relegated to the villages. They are a very culturally related country. Lukashenko was very nearly kicked out of office last year but he strong armed the protestors and kept power. He also had the backing of Putin to help. Putin has been pushing Lukashenko to have a closer union and wants the conscription of soldiers from Belarus. It looks like this will all happen now.

Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. He is having a laugh at the west's expense, and he has Biden dancing to his tune. Biden will give into Putin and Biden will claim some sort of victory from it, but the reality is Biden will be making all the important concessions.

 

[Allan]

Belarus and Russia is a very complex relationship. First off Belarus is basically a Russian speaking country. The Belarussian language is mostly relegated to the villages. They are a very culturally related country. Lukashenko was very nearly kicked out of office last year but he strong armed the protestors and kept power. He also had the backing of Putin to help. Putin has been pushing Lukashenko to have a closer union and wants the conscription of soldiers from Belarus. It looks like this will all happen now.

Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. He is having a laugh at the west's expense, and he has Biden dancing to his tune. Biden will give into Putin and Biden will claim some sort of victory from it, but the reality is Biden will be making all the important concessions.

What concessions do you see Biden making?

 

[justoneman]

What concessions do you see Biden making?

Already he is talking about allowing the Russians to inspect missile sites in Poland and Romania.

 

[Allan]

Already he is talking about allowing the Russians to inspect missile sites in Poland and Romania.

Is that a major concession?

 

[justoneman]

The big relationship issue in Europe is that of Germany and Russia. It's getting very cosey. Germany wants the natural gas and Russia wants the money. The reason Russia has relationship issues with both Belarus and Ukraine is because the pipelines run through those countries. Belarus has had subsidized energy prices from Russia and has given concessions for it. I do not like Germany having that same kind of relationship with Russia.

So I fear Biden giving into anything having to do with Nord Stream 2

 

[justoneman]

Is that a major concession?

Poland is a pretty solid partnership country. They fear Russia. Anything that compromises the US / Poland relationship is big.

Lots of different concessions in total are big.

 

[jpn]

Belarus and Russia is a very complex relationship. First off Belarus is basically a Russian speaking country. The Belarussian language is mostly relegated to the villages. They are a very culturally related country. Lukashenko was very nearly kicked out of office last year but he strong armed the protestors and kept power. He also had the backing of Putin to help. Putin has been pushing Lukashenko to have a closer union and wants the conscription of soldiers from Belarus. It looks like this will all happen now.

Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. He is having a laugh at the west's expense, and he has Biden dancing to his tune. Biden will give into Putin and Biden will claim some sort of victory from it, but the reality is Biden will be making all the important concessions.

Belarus is an authoritarian state in which elections are openly rigged and civil liberties are severely restricted.

A few years ago, Lukashenko permitted some limited displays of dissent as part of a drive to pursue better relations with the European Union (EU) and the United States. The citizens took advantage of their relative temporary freedom to launch massive antigovernment protests. Freedom is so troublesome for dictators.

So Lukashenko, who previously had held Putin at arm's length, was forced to let Putin's security forces in to brutally put down the freedom movement (something at which Putin excels).

Now Belarus is little more than a Russian satrapy.

 

[jpn]

Already he is talking about allowing the Russians to inspect missile sites in Poland and Romania.

Is that a major concession?

"The U.S. proposal is aimed at allaying Moscow’s concerns the launchers could be used to target Russia. One person added any agreement would only happen after discussion with allies, especially Poland and Romania, and would need to be reciprocated with a number of Russian bases housing ground-launched weapons."​

The proposal reflects U.S. efforts to find some common ground with Russia as it seeks to defuse tensions over Ukraine.​

Seems like a reasonable concession in order to save tens of thousands of lives, and Putin would have something to show the Russian people if he backs down. Doubt it's enough though.

IMHO, NATO should launch partial sanctions now, threatening to clamp down completely if Putin invades.

 

[jpn]

Already he is talking about allowing the Russians to inspect missile sites in Poland and Romania.

According to this news article, it's not giving away anything Romania hasn't already offered. Poland would also not object to this:

Romania maintains it has an open invitation for Russian officials to visit its facility if the requirement of reciprocity is met. An official familiar with Poland’s stance told Bloomberg the country could also agree to anti-missile checks by Russia in return for inspections in the sensitive enclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Poland. It’s not clear whether Russia would agree to give the U.S. access to its missile sites.​

 

[justoneman]

"The U.S. proposal is aimed at allaying Moscow’s concerns the launchers could be used to target Russia. One person added any agreement would only happen after discussion with allies, especially Poland and Romania, and would need to be reciprocated with a number of Russian bases housing ground-launched weapons."​

The proposal reflects U.S. efforts to find some common ground with Russia as it seeks to defuse tensions over Ukraine.​

Seems like a reasonable concession in order to save tens of thousands of lives, and Putin would have something to show the Russian people if he backs down. Doubt it's enough, though.

IMHO, NATO should launch partial sanctions now, threatening to clamp down completely if Putin invades.

Threatening sanctions if Putin invades is a show of weakness. Like what is that? If you start a war, we are really going to slap your wrist.

 

[jpn]

Threatening sanctions if Putin invades is a show of weakness. Like what is that? If you start a war, we are really going to slap your wrist.

What do you suggest? That the US goes to war over Ukraine? Seriously?

I'm not totally opposed to the idea, but the stakes would be enormous. Are you really that confident that is where the US should go? Or do you have some other option in mind?

 

[justoneman]

What do you suggest? That the US goes to war over Ukraine? Seriously?

I'm not totally opposed to the idea, but the stakes would be enormous. Are you really that confident that is where the US should go? Or do you have some other option in mind?

I am suggesting Biden should not be banging the war drum as he has been doing. He should have quietly set up a plan with our allies just in case. The reality is Russia always has a major military exercise every year. I think the west is making something out of nothing. Mostly it is Biden doing it.

 

[jpn]

I am suggesting Biden should not be banging the war drum as he has been doing. He should have quietly set up a plan with our allies just in case. The reality is Russia always has a major military exercise every year. I think the west is making something out of nothing. Mostly it is Biden doing it.

"Mostly it is Biden doing it?" Huh. Could your perspective be somewhat colored by what country you presently live in? Not everyone in the world hangs on every word of the American president (especially after Trump). Have you read what Zelenskyy has been saying? He's almost hysterical. Lithuania is close behind him. Sweden and Finland are actually considering joining NATO for the first time.

Do you think Ukrainians are being persuaded by Biden? Or by what they are experiencing in their own nation?

Latest Ukrainian polling:
Joining NATO:
Yes: 65% (+3)
No: 35% (-3)
Joining EU:
Yes: 74% (+8)
No: 26% (-8)

Do you think Biden did this?:

 

[justoneman]

"Mostly it is Biden doing it?" Huh. Could your perspective be somewhat colored by what country you presently live in? Not everyone in the world hangs on every word of the American president (especially after Trump). Have you read what Zelenskyy has been saying? He's almost hysterical. Lithuania is close behind him. Sweden and Finland are actually considering joining NATO for the first time.

Do you think Ukrainians are being persuaded by Biden? Or by what they are experiencing in their own nation?

Latest Ukrainian polling:
Joining NATO:
Yes: 65% (+3)
No: 35% (-3)
Joining EU:
Yes: 74% (+8)
No: 26% (-8)

Do you think Biden did this?:

Ukrainians are not freaking out like you are. The separatists in the Donbas are lobing a couple of shells as Putin wants them to do. Now the west is jumping. It's all going to be a diplomatic win win for Putin.

 

[jpn]

Ukrainians are not freaking out like you are.

And you know this because you're what? Listening to Tucker Carlson?

• Exhibit one: ‘What Are You Waiting For?’ Zelenskyy Pleads For Stronger European Response to Russia
• Exhibit two: Zelenskyy's impassioned speech at the Munich Security Conference:

 

[justoneman]

And you know this because you're what? Listening to Tucker Carlson?

No I talk to Ukrainians.

 

[jpn]

No I talk to Ukrainians.

Oh yes, I'll bet you do. Remember, a statistically valid number would have to be roughly 300 citizens, randomly selected. Or you could just listen to their elected representative, like in my post directly above.

 

[justoneman]

Oh yes, I'll bet you do. Remember, a statistically valid number would have to be roughly 300 citizens, randomly selected. Or you could just listen to their elected representative, like in my post directly above.

I have friends and coworkers that are Ukrainian and Poles and Lithuanians and Belarussians and Russians. I live in Chicago. my neighbors are Vietnamese and Pakastani. I talk to lots of people. They all have lots of friends and family back home. I get a good slice of opinions.