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Bear Market, Thanks to Trump

Luckyone

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The NASDAQ generated a bear market signal today, having closed 22.2% below its all-time high at 8313 that was made in August (a 20% drop is considered a bear market). This was a market that just a few weeks ago analysts were saying that it would continue higher next year with 3250 as the target for the SPX.

In addition, in my entire 73 years of life I have never seen a week with so much negative news as has been seen this week:

1) Trump Foundation closed
2) Mathis resigned
3) Syria troops withdrawn and half of the troops from Afghanistan ordered to leave
4) Kelly fired and replaced by Mahoney and now Trump complaining about Mahoney
5) Government shut down leaving over 750,000 government workers without pay
6) Stock market collapsing
7) Putin applauding Trump's decisions
8) Over $3 Trillion has been lost through the stock market since August.

last but not least:

9) Trump supporters saying this is all TDS

When will it all end?
 

Conaeolos

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The NASDAQ generated a bear market signal today, having closed 22.2% below its all-time high at 8313 that was made in August (a 20% drop is considered a bear market). This was a market that just a few weeks ago analysts were saying that it would continue higher next year with 3250 as the target for the SPX.

In addition, in my entire 73 years of life I have never seen a week with so much negative news as has been seen this week:

1) Trump Foundation closed
2) Mathis resigned
3) Syria troops withdrawn and half of the troops from Afghanistan ordered to leave
4) Kelly fired and replaced by Mahoney and now Trump complaining about Mahoney
5) Government shut down leaving over 750,000 government workers without pay
6) Stock market collapsing
7) Putin applauding Trump's decisions
8) Over $3 Trillion has been lost through the stock market since August.

last but not least:

9) Trump supporters saying this is all TDS

When will it all end?
OR maybe it's the fact the economy is doing well enough we are finally correcting on interest rates.
 

trixare4kids

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OR maybe it's the fact the economy is doing well enough we are finally correcting on interest rates.

Yep... thanks for your intelligent remark.
We'll be back up in the NY.
 

trixare4kids

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The NASDAQ generated a bear market signal today, having closed 22.2% below its all-time high at 8313 that was made in August (a 20% drop is considered a bear market). This was a market that just a few weeks ago analysts were saying that it would continue higher next year with 3250 as the target for the SPX.

In addition, in my entire 73 years of life I have never seen a week with so much negative news as has been seen this week:

1) Trump Foundation closed
2) Mathis resigned
3) Syria troops withdrawn and half of the troops from Afghanistan ordered to leave
4) Kelly fired and replaced by Mahoney and now Trump complaining about Mahoney
5) Government shut down leaving over 750,000 government workers without pay
6) Stock market collapsing
7) Putin applauding Trump's decisions
8) Over $3 Trillion has been lost through the stock market since August.

last but not least:

9) Trump supporters saying this is all TDS

When will it all end?

When your party can find someone who can beat him.
 

Amelia

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The NASDAQ generated a bear market signal today, having closed 22.2% below its all-time high at 8313 that was made in August (a 20% drop is considered a bear market). This was a market that just a few weeks ago analysts were saying that it would continue higher next year with 3250 as the target for the SPX.

In addition, in my entire 73 years of life I have never seen a week with so much negative news as has been seen this week:

1) Trump Foundation closed
2) Mathis resigned
3) Syria troops withdrawn and half of the troops from Afghanistan ordered to leave
4) Kelly fired and replaced by Mahoney and now Trump complaining about Mahoney
5) Government shut down leaving over 750,000 government workers without pay
6) Stock market collapsing
7) Putin applauding Trump's decisions
8) Over $3 Trillion has been lost through the stock market since August.

last but not least:

9) Trump supporters saying this is all TDS

When will it all end?


You misspelled a couple of names, but other than that ... yes.

What a mess.

So much worse than I ever imagined Trump could be before he was elected.
 

Mr Person

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OR maybe it's the fact the economy is doing well enough we are finally correcting on interest rates.

Let's review some patterns of blame and praise:

Stock market crashes under Bush --> "All the Democrats fault for making lenders make loans!" (False)

Obama inherits the wrecked economy and Bush's TARP, resulting in a record deficit --> "Obama's fault! Poopy liberals!" (False)

Obama's existing deficits while still high (over 400 billion), brought down by 1 trillion from his first deficit and in line with Bush's deficits following prior GOP tax cuts ---> "Economy would have done that anyway" (debatable, particularly in light of stimulus)

Trump inherits booming economy ---> "Trump is AWESOME! Look what his policies did!" (False).

Trump runs deficits nearly the size of Obama's Great Recession deficits ---> "Deficits don't matter and Dems would have done this too!" (False)





Now, did you personally say all those things? I don't know. But that's the pattern I've seen here. That's the pattern I see elsewhere. If it's bad and happening, it's the Democrats fault or it's not happening. If it's good, it's down to the GOPer. Whether it's congress or the presidency that gets blamed/praised depends on the letter next to the name.

And before someone chimes in with a "both sides" statement: no, not like it has been in the last ten years.
 

Luckyone

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OR maybe it's the fact the economy is doing well enough we are finally correcting on interest rates.

A bear market is totally different to a correction. A correction is a drop within a bull market to flush out the the over buying and to set up support for a new leg up. A bear market signal is a change of mentality about the market.

This bull market has lasted 9 years and the norm is 5 years. If this bear market signal is confirmed next week with another close next Friday in the NAZ below 6650 or with a close in the SPX below 2352, it will mean that for the next 5+ years, the market is likely to be heading lower with corrections to the upside being short and temporary. Instead of buying dips, traders will be selling rallies.

You should get more information about what this all means. I have been trading the market for 41 years and I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Prudential-Bache and Dean Witter.

These signals are meaningful.
 
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Rexedgar

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You misspelled a couple of names, but other than that ... yes.

What a mess.

So much worse than I ever imagined Trump could be before he was elected.



But the quality of sleep we are now enjoying is “Yuge!” What with North Korea no longer a threat and ISIS defeated........

:3oops:
 

Mycroft

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The NASDAQ generated a bear market signal today, having closed 22.2% below its all-time high at 8313 that was made in August (a 20% drop is considered a bear market). This was a market that just a few weeks ago analysts were saying that it would continue higher next year with 3250 as the target for the SPX.

~snipped the rest of the spinning nonsense~

I can handle only one bit of spinning nonsense at a time, so I'll deal with the nonsense that is on topic. (your OWN topic, you know)

The drop in the market has nothing to do with Trump. It is entirely caused by the Fed and by the reactions of the hysterical speculators and their computer programs.

I know the truth is inconvenient to your TDS affliction, but this is the truth.
 

Bucky

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A bear market is totally different to a correction. A correction is a drop within a bull market to flush out the the over buying and to set up support for a new leg up. A bear market signal is a change of mentality about the market.

This bull market has lasted 9 years and the norm is 5 years. If this bear market signal is confirmed next week with another close next Friday in the NAZ below 6650 or with a close in the SPX below 2352, it will mean that for the next 5+ years, the market is likely to be heading lower with corrections to the upside being short and temporary. Instead of buying dips, traders will be selling rallies.

You should get more information about what this all means. I have been trading the market for 41 years and I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Prudential-Bache and Dean Witter.

These signals are meaningful.

None of what you said mentioned the feds. Our economy is strong. Powell wouldn't have raised interest rates if the economy is weak.
 

Conaeolos

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Let's review some patterns of blame and praise:

Stock market crashes under Bush --> "All the Democrats fault for making lenders make loans!" (False)

Obama inherits the wrecked economy and Bush's TARP, resulting in a record deficit --> "Obama's fault! Poopy liberals!" (False)

Obama's existing deficits while still high (over 400 billion), brought down by 1 trillion from his first deficit and in line with Bush's deficits following prior GOP tax cuts ---> "Economy would have done that anyway" (debatable, particularly in light of stimulus)

Trump inherits booming economy ---> "Trump is AWESOME! Look what his policies did!" (False).

Trump runs deficits nearly the size of Obama's Great Recession deficits ---> "Deficits don't matter and Dems would have done this too!" (False)





Now, did you personally say all those things? I don't know. But that's the pattern I've seen here. That's the pattern I see elsewhere. If it's bad and happening, it's the Democrats fault or it's not happening. If it's good, it's down to the GOPer. Whether it's congress or the presidency that gets blamed/praised depends on the letter next to the name.

And before someone chimes in with a "both sides" statement: no, not like it has been in the last ten years.
I am fine not assigning any current economy to any president, but I will praise presidential actions that are pro-growth or pro-sustainability over presidential policies which put social policy over economic stability of the nation. We have never had any modern president to my knowledge that isn’t a mixed bag in this regard. It is a problem on both sides, social policy is too important to too many people even when it comes at the cost of 250+ year debt on the next generation(s) and a manipulated money supply that has valuation way out of whack [cell phone company or mid-sized bank > producers of most industrial or consumer goods].

The deficit is really bad. So are artificially low interest rates. Tax rates are disproportionate to public-service. Personal debt market remains a dangerous bubble and is still directly a result of social policy. The 2008 crash is the result of the system, which you can trace to decisions by both parties, but is 100% putting social policy about financial sustainability. Current future entitlements are a lie and will never be paid out at the levels promised. US can not retain oil dollar or its reserve status as long as it continues to risk her financial health.
 

Mr Person

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I am fine not assigning any current economy to any president, but I will praise presidential actions that are pro-growth or pro-sustainability over presidential policies which put social policy over economic stability of the nation. We have never had any modern president to my knowledge that isn’t a mixed bag in this regard. It is a problem on both sides, social policy is too important to too many people even when it comes at the cost of 250+ year debt on the next generation(s) and a manipulated money supply that has valuation way out of whack [cell phone company or mid-sized bank > producers of most industrial or consumer goods].

The deficit is really bad. So are artificially low interest rates. Tax rates are disproportionate to public-service. Personal debt market remains a dangerous bubble and is still directly a result of social policy. The 2008 crash is the result of the system, which you can trace to decisions by both parties, but is 100% putting social policy about financial sustainability. Current future entitlements are a lie and will never be paid out at the levels promised. US can not retain oil dollar or its reserve status as long as it continues to risk her financial health.

The worst bit is if we'd just have let taxes sit at the rates around when Clinton left, our debt/deficit picture would look a whole lot better today. If there was ever a point (and it looks like there were two such points) where tax cuts actually lead to an increase of revenue, it was way back with the package that dropped top rate from 90 to 70ish%, and then 70 to 50%ish. Everything else has reduced revenue. And we keep doing this while only giving lip service to cutting "spending," which we can't really do because it turns out that overall, America actually does want the full package we're getting. Individually, people gripe about specific line items and the like, but on average......we want this.

And of course, any politician who actively campaigns for bringing rates back up to Clinton's era is going to get slaughtered in the election in which he/she does it. We don't like paying our way. (Hence, perhaps, all the private credit card and excess mortgage debt).

Meanwhile, it sure is popular to run on giving people another tax cut. Trouble is....we're borrowing to the tune of 400 billion/year to pay for Bush's, and another 600 billion/year to pay for Trump's.



(And I'm not interested in the normal quibble people bring up about whether a tax cut is "giving people money" or "taking less of their money". Whatever we call it, the effect is the same: spending outstrips revenue even further).
 

Bullseye

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The NASDAQ generated a bear market signal today, having closed 22.2% below its all-time high at 8313 that was made in August (a 20% drop is considered a bear market). This was a market that just a few weeks ago analysts were saying that it would continue higher next year with 3250 as the target for the SPX.

In addition, in my entire 73 years of life I have never seen a week with so much negative news as has been seen this week:

1) Trump Foundation closed
2) Mathis resigned
3) Syria troops withdrawn and half of the troops from Afghanistan ordered to leave
4) Kelly fired and replaced by Mahoney and now Trump complaining about Mahoney
5) Government shut down leaving over 750,000 government workers without pay
6) Stock market collapsing
7) Putin applauding Trump's decisions
8) Over $3 Trillion has been lost through the stock market since August.

last but not least:

9) Trump supporters saying this is all TDS

When will it all end?
When Pelosi shows her agenda is more than just tearing down everything Trump has accomplished on the economy so far. When Dems prove to business and finance leaders that they actually WANT a booming economy and the people prospering it'll end. The stock markets are forward looking indicators and we Dems on a rampage to get Trump the future doesn't look so good.
 

Bullseye

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Let's review some patterns of blame and praise:

Stock market crashes under Bush --> "All the Democrats fault for making lenders make loans!" (False)

Obama inherits the wrecked economy and Bush's TARP, resulting in a record deficit --> "Obama's fault! Poopy liberals!" (False)

Obama's existing deficits while still high (over 400 billion), brought down by 1 trillion from his first deficit and in line with Bush's deficits following prior GOP tax cuts ---> "Economy would have done that anyway" (debatable, particularly in light of stimulus)

Trump inherits booming economy ---> "Trump is AWESOME! Look what his policies did!" (False).

Trump runs deficits nearly the size of Obama's Great Recession deficits ---> "Deficits don't matter and Dems would have done this too!" (False)





Now, did you personally say all those things? I don't know. But that's the pattern I've seen here. That's the pattern I see elsewhere. If it's bad and happening, it's the Democrats fault or it's not happening. If it's good, it's down to the GOPer. Whether it's congress or the presidency that gets blamed/praised depends on the letter next to the name.

And before someone chimes in with a "both sides" statement: no, not like it has been in the last ten years.
Blue = wrong
 

Conaeolos

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A bear market is totally different to a correction. A correction is a drop within a bull market to flush out the the over buying and to set up support for a new leg up. A bear market signal is a change of mentality about the market.

This bull market has lasted 9 years and the norm is 5 years. If this bear market signal is confirmed next week with another close next Friday in the NAZ below 6650 or with a close in the SPX below 2352, it will mean that for the next 5+ years, the market is likely to be heading lower with corrections to the upside being short and temporary. Instead of buying dips, traders will be selling rallies.

You should get more information about what this all means. I have been trading the market for 41 years and I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Prudential-Bache and Dean Witter.

These signals are meaningful.
I never said it was a market correction. I said it was more likely a result of the correction from the 8 years of artificially low interest rates, which required a certain strength in the economy to recover back to market norms as they were apart of a stimulus policy. As an investor you should know more than anyone how this signal is the most significant factor at play and that those other factors are a distraction being used to make a political talking point.
 

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I can handle only one bit of spinning nonsense at a time, so I'll deal with the nonsense that is on topic. (your OWN topic, you know)

The drop in the market has nothing to do with Trump. It is entirely caused by the Fed and by the reactions of the hysterical speculators and their computer programs.

I know the truth is inconvenient to your TDS affliction, but this is the truth.

Here is what Nike reported today:

Nike shares are up 8 percent in premarket trading Friday, after the athletic apparel company turned in quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations with the help of strong global sales and improvements to its digital business.

Although there had been concerns early in the quarter that a controversial ad campaign could dampen sales, there weren't any signs of that in the results, which were released late Thursday.

Executives also said they weren't seeing any impact from friction on trade between the U.S. and China. Wedbush analysts recently estimated that the percentage of goods Nike sources from China is in the mid-20s.

Here's what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

Earnings per share: 52 cents vs. 46 cents expected
Revenue: $9.37 billion vs. $9.18 billion expected

Nike said revenue grew in nearly every category, with footwear and apparel seeing growth in the double digits globally. Digital sales led growth across both the Nike and Converse brands.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/nike-earnings-q2-2019.html

9.37 billion in revenue. That is not a sign of a recession.
 

Conaeolos

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The worst bit is if we'd just have let taxes sit at the rates around when Clinton left, our debt/deficit picture would look a whole lot better today. If there was ever a point (and it looks like there were two such points) where tax cuts actually lead to an increase of revenue, it was way back with the package that dropped top rate from 90 to 70ish%, and then 70 to 50%ish. Everything else has reduced revenue. And we keep doing this while only giving lip service to cutting "spending," which we can't really do because it turns out that overall, America actually does want the full package we're getting. Individually, people gripe about specific line items and the like, but on average......we want this.

And of course, any politician who actively campaigns for bringing rates back up to Clinton's era is going to get slaughtered in the election in which he/she does it. We don't like paying our way. (Hence, perhaps, all the private credit card and excess mortgage debt).

Meanwhile, it sure is popular to run on giving people another tax cut. Trouble is....we're borrowing to the tune of 400 billion/year to pay for Bush's, and another 600 billion/year to pay for Trump's.



(And I'm not interested in the normal quibble people bring up about whether a tax cut is "giving people money" or "taking less of their money". Whatever we call it, the effect is the same: spending outstrips revenue even further).
To be fair I agree that many tax cuts are reckless[including Trump's], like most fiscal conservatives I support cutting spending followed by tax cuts not vice versa. That said, on apple to apples comparisons [two similar economies] between countries or states that employ these different policies we see that higher GDP growth and forced reduced spending to avoid deficit often put them slightly but progressively ahead economically as measured my GDP per capita in say 5 year comparison blocks. So the theory continues it is better to be in debt and have money than to be in less debt but completely broke.

On the other-side much if not all of that difference in gain can be accounted by fact spending is not kept in control with the short term higher tax revenues as debt reduction is a lower priority and social projects tend to be underfunded to their promise by nature. These observations would suggest that either argument[left or right] could win[economically], as long as the doer was a true fiscal conservative who could reduce spending. I would note here, I solidly believe one could actual increase public services and still reduce cost if they were so included. Private sector is able to tackle that horse quite often.

Another note, counter to public perception the record shows higher deficits under the right’s tax cut first approach yet more income and opportunity to the public; where as, the lefts high tax approach sees far better public balance sheets but less improvement for the average worker not subsidized by the government[except at the top]. An interesting note but then again if the increased subsidies is say “universal healthcare” is that qualitatively worth more than some small but progressive increase in buying power - it is certainly debatable.
 

Mr Person

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Let's review some patterns of blame and praise:

Stock market crashes under Bush --> "All the Democrats fault for making lenders make loans!" (False)

Obama inherits the wrecked economy and Bush's TARP, resulting in a record deficit --> "Obama's fault! Poopy liberals!" (False)

Obama's existing deficits while still high (over 400 billion), brought down by 1 trillion from his first deficit and in line with Bush's deficits following prior GOP tax cuts ---> "Economy would have done that anyway" (debatable, particularly in light of stimulus)

Trump inherits booming economy ---> "Trump is AWESOME! Look what his policies did!" (False).

Trump runs deficits nearly the size of Obama's Great Recession deficits ---> "Deficits don't matter and Dems would have done this too!" (False)





Now, did you personally say all those things? I don't know. But that's the pattern I've seen here. That's the pattern I see elsewhere. If it's bad and happening, it's the Democrats fault or it's not happening. If it's good, it's down to the GOPer. Whether it's congress or the presidency that gets blamed/praised depends on the letter next to the name.

And before someone chimes in with a "both sides" statement: no, not like it has been in the last ten years.

Blue = wrong

Oh, the irony. :lol:

Hey now, he gave it at all. At least he tried.











;)
 
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