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Bden leads Trump by 12 points nationally among likely voters

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Another member posted this article win the wrong section. This is where it belongs.

The survey showed the number of voters who had not yet backed a major-party candidate to be less than half of what it was in 2016, and that Biden currently had the advantage in securing the national popular vote.

Even if the remaining undecided voters threw their support behind Trump, the poll showed, he would still lose the popular vote to Biden.

Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Reuters
 
Nation wide votes are nice.

Battleground state votes are more important.
 
Nationwide votes are nice.

Battleground state votes are more important.

All votes are very important. There is a reason people often say, "Every vote counts." It is a shame many voters do not believe this proven fact. Neither candidate can give up on a state and focus primarily on where he is expected to win.

The battleground states this year include two of the three biggest prizes: Texas and Florida. Others include Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. Trump has already given up on Arizona.
 
Popular vote are not the EC vote. Don't go counting chickens.

If the popular vote was irrelevant, there would not be an election at all. It would just be the Electoral College deciding a winner without voter representation.
 
Nation wide votes are nice.

Battleground state votes are more important.

Fivethirtyeight has Biden at 75% chance of winning now. Not sure if that has to do with this poll as I'm too lazy to look but he's definitely well positioned in battlegrounds.
 
If the popular vote was irrelevant, there would not be an election at all. It would just be the Electoral College deciding a winner without voter representation.

It does have bearing, state by state. But we well know that it's not the end all be all of winning the election.
 
Fivethirtyeight has Biden at 75% chance of winning now. Not sure if that has to do with this poll as I'm too lazy to look but he's definitely well positioned in battlegrounds.

I hope you (and they) are correct.

But after 2016, I can't be bothered with the aggregate popular vote.
 
Even if the remaining undecided voters threw their support behind Trump, the poll showed, he would still lose the popular vote to Biden.
This is of course not true. Journalists really need to learn how to report poll numbers to avoid spreading misconceptions like this.
 
Another member posted this article win the wrong section. This is where it belongs.



Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Reuters

I prefer to go by RCP averages. There's always a chance of a poll being skewed a bit one way or the other. Even by a quite a lot. But averaging evens every thing out and takes numerous polls into account instead of just one. I think RCP not only gives you a more accurate picture, but give a much bigger picture of where we stand today. You can also see trends over time and make either day to day, week to week even month to month comparisons.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
 
Fivethirtyeight has Biden at 75% chance of winning now. Not sure if that has to do with this poll as I'm too lazy to look but he's definitely well positioned in battlegrounds.

Thats going to go up soon. Bob Woodward's new book, "Rage", is about to be released. In it he has audio recordings of interviews with the donkey of Pennsylvania Avenue where, as early as Feb, the donkey stated that he knew the virus is deadly and airborne, and with about a five percent mortality rate. On tape. He intentionally withheld information from the American public because he "didn't want to create a panic" when he should have been honest with us and shut down the country by pressuring the governors to do so. Anthony Fauci is quoted in the book as saying that the donkey has the attention span of a "minus number" and that his sole purpose is to get re-elected. Basically the donkey put his re-election above American lives.

Is this the animal you all want as president? How can anyone vote for this jerk?
 
Another member posted this article win the wrong section. This is where it belongs.



Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Reuters

Well that is it... the election is over! No reason to vote now! MSM say Trump will lose? Is that like Hillary has a 95% chance of being president? :lamo :peace



The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 823 likely voters, including 390 who identified as Democrats and 351 who identified as Republicans. The poll has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about 4 percentage points.
 
Wednesday, September 09, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.
 
Wednesday, September 09, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.

This isn't an election poll so no idea why you posted it. Latest Rasmussen poll had Biden +2.
 
The new Rasmussen released today has Biden +2. Emerson still has him +2, Zogby has him +3.

The RCP average is around +7.

One poll has a Trump winning in Minnesota BTW. And another, of registered voters, has Trump winning in Florida.

The Rasmussen poll consistently is out of line with nearly every other poll other than the Trafalgar poll. No single poll should be believed. You have to look at them all. Fivethirtyeight grades the polls based on the quality of the poll. Guess where the Rasmussen poll falls.
 
Another member posted this article win the wrong section. This is where it belongs.



Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Reuters
Some things to keep in mind.

Large cities, where people en masse vie for a lot less jobs in the vicinity than there are job applicants, end up being strongholds of those who for sometimes more than one reason experience "being on the outside looking in".

The people who experience "being on the outside looking in" are the primary marketing targets of the left, and are thus often easy prey as they're emotionally predisposed to the egregious "identity politics" and socialist pie in the sky the Democrats promise in their marketing.

So, what does that mean? It means that as the long over-populated U.S. continues to be even more so each year, the natural phenomenon of applicants way out-numbering job openings will continue to rise .. and the Democrats will continue to gain increased margins in winning the Presidential popular vote.

Of course, that's why the Democrats: 1) don't want to close the borders and want open borders and no limit on immigration and make it easier to become citizens, as they accurately deem these new people will eventually spill over to become Democrats as they succumb to the Democrats' pie in the sky socialist marketing strategy, and 2) don't ever want to see all these "outside looking in" people ever get jobs or become part of the satisfied people in America as they're understandably afraid these people would then switch and become Republicans.

That's why when Obama won in 2008 I predicted that it's highly unlikely we ever see a Republican win the White House again.

Indeed, many were surprised that Hillary lost in 2016. I believe had she run against the best RNC insider the Republicans had in 2016 she would have surely won. But she had the misfortune of running up against a non-insider in Donald Trump, a corporate business marketing genius, and his staff of geniuses outplayed Hillary in key swing states, illustrating that it's still possible for Republicans to win a Presidential election, as well as both houses of congress.

But Trump then was an exception, an exception he may not be this year.

And the swing states were close, a close that the phenomenon of over-population is swinging away from Trump and toward the Democrats.

It truly is only a matter of time until the Republicans, as we know them, may never win the White House again.

Of course, things can change .. and if the Democrats and their socialism gains power along with BLM and other anti-White racist and economically stupid America-last people, who drive America down to where the Democrats get blamed for all the "outsiders looking in", then we may see a new political party emerge at the true center of the political spectrum that takes over the reigns .. and governs very much the way Donald Trump has.
 
Some things to keep in mind.

Large cities, where people en masse vie for a lot less jobs in the vicinity than there are job applicants, end up being strongholds of those who for sometimes more than one reason experience "being on the outside looking in".

The people who experience "being on the outside looking in" are the primary marketing targets of the left, and are thus often easy prey as they're emotionally predisposed to the egregious "identity politics" and socialist pie in the sky the Democrats promise in their marketing.

So, what does that mean? It means that as the long over-populated U.S. continues to be even more so each year, the natural phenomenon of applicants way out-numbering job openings will continue to rise .. and the Democrats will continue to gain increased margins in winning the Presidential popular vote.

Of course, that's why the Democrats: 1) don't want to close the borders and want open borders and no limit on immigration and make it easier to become citizens, as they accurately deem these new people will eventually spill over to become Democrats as they succumb to the Democrats' pie in the sky socialist marketing strategy, and 2) don't ever want to see all these "outside looking in" people ever get jobs or become part of the satisfied people in America as they're understandably afraid these people would then switch and become Republicans.

That's why when Obama won in 2008 I predicted that it's highly unlikely we ever see a Republican win the White House again.

Indeed, many were surprised that Hillary lost in 2016. I believe had she run against the best RNC insider the Republicans had in 2016 she would have surely won. But she had the misfortune of running up against a non-insider in Donald Trump, a corporate business marketing genius, and his staff of geniuses outplayed Hillary in key swing states, illustrating that it's still possible for Republicans to win a Presidential election, as well as both houses of congress.

But Trump then was an exception, an exception he may not be this year.

And the swing states were close, a close that the phenomenon of over-population is swinging away from Trump and toward the Democrats.

It truly is only a matter of time until the Republicans, as we know them, may never win the White House again.

Of course, things can change .. and if the Democrats and their socialism gains power along with BLM and other anti-White racist and economically stupid America-last people, who drive America down to where the Democrats get blamed for all the "outsiders looking in", then we may see a new political party emerge at the true center of the political spectrum that takes over the reigns .. and governs very much the way Donald Trump has.

Just LMAOOOO at this. Anyone that thinks Trump is a "corporate marketing genius" is clearly drinking the kool aid. Nice rant though. Doesn't really change the fact that Biden is +7
 
Another member posted this article win the wrong section. This is where it belongs.



Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Reuters

His average lead is 7.6. As Nate Silver posted...

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%

Silver is not factoring in voting shennanigans by Republicans.
 
Just LMAOOOO at this. Anyone that thinks Trump is a "corporate marketing genius" is clearly drinking the kool aid. Nice rant though. Doesn't really change the fact that Biden is +7
Everything I presented in my previous post is 100% accurate .. as Hillary most certainly can attest. :shock:

And, if Biden is +7, then if it isn't because Trump supporters are notorious for not responding to polls .. again, a genius-move Hillary was shocked to learn about in 2016 and caused her played staff to relax efforts in those swing states she lost .. then it's because of the over-population phenomenon I just accurately presented. :cool:
 
This is of course not true. Journalists really need to learn how to report poll numbers to avoid spreading misconceptions like this.

Reuters is one of the two biggest news reporting companies, so chances are it has some of the best journalists in the industry.
 
The new Rasmussen released today has Biden +2. Emerson still has him +2, Zogby has him +3.

The RCP average is around +7.

One poll has a Trump winning in Minnesota BTW. And another, of registered voters, has Trump winning in Florida.

The only poll that actually matters is in just a bit less than 60 days.
 
Thats going to go up soon. Bob Woodward's new book, "Rage", is about to be released. In it he has audio recordings of interviews with the donkey of Pennsylvania Avenue where, as early as Feb, the donkey stated that he knew the virus is deadly and airborne, and with about a five percent mortality rate. On tape. He intentionally withheld information from the American public because he "didn't want to create a panic" when he should have been honest with us and shut down the country by pressuring the governors to do so. Anthony Fauci is quoted in the book as saying that the donkey has the attention span of a "minus number" and that his sole purpose is to get re-elected. Basically the donkey put his re-election above American lives.

Is this the animal you all want as president? How can anyone vote for this jerk?

Who are you calling a donkey? I am sure you know our current president is an elephant.
 
Reuters is one of the two biggest news reporting companies, so chances are it has some of the best journalists in the industry.
And yet they still get it wrong. To start, there's a not-insignificant 1 in 20 chance that the poll is bs. Add to that the small sample size and wide margin of error on top of trying to predict likely voters, and there's a ton of uncertainty in this poll.

To claim that the poll can tell us that Trump would lose the popular vote if taken today and undecideds all went for Trump is just plain wrong.
 
This was an ONLINE ONLY poll.

Meaning, it most likely favored wealthier Americans, who would have been more likely to return the survey online.

Not an accurate way to sample Trump Voters, in general.
 
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