Autopsy of PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST 9 November 2018
There were 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the previous Senate. I forecasted the final results as the new senate having 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats. Official results show 52 GOP to 47 democratic senators with Mississippi Special going to a runoff. Republican Hyde-Smith will easily win the Mississippi runoff. Making it 53 Republicans. I missed by one.
The house, there were 240 Republicans, 195 Democrats. I forecasted the new house would have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. With 13 seats remaining to be called, the current count is Democrats 225, Republicans 197, 13 pending. I need the Democrats to win 8 of the remaining 13 too close to call to hit my 233 on the nose. Whether it breaks that way or not, I am guaranteed to be within a seat or two correctly forecasting the house.
Which senate states did I get wrong, Nevada, Indiana, Florida. The other 32 senate races were correct. Here’s what I said in these three missed senate races.
Florida Nelson D – Nelson has maintained around a three-point lead for the month of October. This is the upper limits of the margin of error, but still within it. With the advantage of incumbency, Nelson holds onto his seat. Democratic hold R 50 D 50. (With Republican winner Scott being an incumbent Governor, that incumbent advantage wasn’t there. Scott won by 0.2%, two tenths of a single percentage point. Such is life, a loss is a loss is a loss.)
Indiana – Donnelly D – Donnelly’s nay vote on Kavanaugh has vaulted Republican Mike Braun into a slight lead in the last three polls. But these polls haven’t taken Libertarian Candidate Lucy Brenton into consideration. She is polling around 5% of the vote when included. The Libertarian could very well cost Braun the seat. This is a pure coin flip race. Probably decided by one percent or less. Based solely on the advantage of incumbency and thinking the lasting effect of Donnelly nay vote on Kavanaugh doesn’t have legs, I’m going with Donnelly to keep his seat. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50 (I gave the Libertarian Candidate too much credit, she gained 3% instead of 5% along with not reading the Kavanaugh effect which had legs and sparked outrage among Republicans and Republican leaning independents for Donnelly’s nay vote. Donnelly won six years ago with the help of Republican leaning independents. Donnelly was benefited six years ago with the GOP running the wacko Mourdock. Not this time.)
Nevada Heller R – Incumbent Heller has continued his momentum gaining a slight lead over Jacky Rosen which they were tied a month ago. Stick with the candidate that has the momentum. Republican Hold. R 51 D 49 (The reason is simple, Las Vegas and its surroundings dwarfed the rest of the state. I gave Heller too much credit from coming eight points down to a lead of two over the last two months. Nevada is turning blue and is a light blue state today.)
Here is what I said about the house and the history of Perotista’s senate and house forecasts for this year.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 62 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 8 for the Democrats, up two from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is the same projected increase as last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 178 seats for the Republicans, 187 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility. On the Republican side, holding their losses to 30 seats is the minimum losses that are possible. Regardless, the Democrats will regain control of the house, it is now just a question of by how many seats.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 202 R 233 D
November Senate 52 R 48 D, House 202 R 233 D
Final Results senate Republicans 53 Democrats 47 House 225 Democrats, 197 Republican with 13 remaining to be called.
There were 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the previous Senate. I forecasted the final results as the new senate having 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats. Official results show 52 GOP to 47 democratic senators with Mississippi Special going to a runoff. Republican Hyde-Smith will easily win the Mississippi runoff. Making it 53 Republicans. I missed by one.
The house, there were 240 Republicans, 195 Democrats. I forecasted the new house would have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. With 13 seats remaining to be called, the current count is Democrats 225, Republicans 197, 13 pending. I need the Democrats to win 8 of the remaining 13 too close to call to hit my 233 on the nose. Whether it breaks that way or not, I am guaranteed to be within a seat or two correctly forecasting the house.
Which senate states did I get wrong, Nevada, Indiana, Florida. The other 32 senate races were correct. Here’s what I said in these three missed senate races.
Florida Nelson D – Nelson has maintained around a three-point lead for the month of October. This is the upper limits of the margin of error, but still within it. With the advantage of incumbency, Nelson holds onto his seat. Democratic hold R 50 D 50. (With Republican winner Scott being an incumbent Governor, that incumbent advantage wasn’t there. Scott won by 0.2%, two tenths of a single percentage point. Such is life, a loss is a loss is a loss.)
Indiana – Donnelly D – Donnelly’s nay vote on Kavanaugh has vaulted Republican Mike Braun into a slight lead in the last three polls. But these polls haven’t taken Libertarian Candidate Lucy Brenton into consideration. She is polling around 5% of the vote when included. The Libertarian could very well cost Braun the seat. This is a pure coin flip race. Probably decided by one percent or less. Based solely on the advantage of incumbency and thinking the lasting effect of Donnelly nay vote on Kavanaugh doesn’t have legs, I’m going with Donnelly to keep his seat. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50 (I gave the Libertarian Candidate too much credit, she gained 3% instead of 5% along with not reading the Kavanaugh effect which had legs and sparked outrage among Republicans and Republican leaning independents for Donnelly’s nay vote. Donnelly won six years ago with the help of Republican leaning independents. Donnelly was benefited six years ago with the GOP running the wacko Mourdock. Not this time.)
Nevada Heller R – Incumbent Heller has continued his momentum gaining a slight lead over Jacky Rosen which they were tied a month ago. Stick with the candidate that has the momentum. Republican Hold. R 51 D 49 (The reason is simple, Las Vegas and its surroundings dwarfed the rest of the state. I gave Heller too much credit from coming eight points down to a lead of two over the last two months. Nevada is turning blue and is a light blue state today.)
Here is what I said about the house and the history of Perotista’s senate and house forecasts for this year.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 62 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 8 for the Democrats, up two from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is the same projected increase as last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 178 seats for the Republicans, 187 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility. On the Republican side, holding their losses to 30 seats is the minimum losses that are possible. Regardless, the Democrats will regain control of the house, it is now just a question of by how many seats.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 202 R 233 D
November Senate 52 R 48 D, House 202 R 233 D
Final Results senate Republicans 53 Democrats 47 House 225 Democrats, 197 Republican with 13 remaining to be called.