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Automation and the Death of Traditional Labor

CriticalThought

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There have been some amazing technological developments the last 10 years. Machinery for mining, construction, and farming has been created that can be programmed to run completely on its own or with a single operator. Trucks, buses, cars, etc. are being developed that are self driving. Retail companies are experimenting with stores where computers automatically tally what you put in your cart and deduct it from your account as you walk out the door. Restaurants are exploring machinery that prepares, cooks, and delivers food on order.

What this means is greater efficiency and reduction in labor and lower costs and higher margins. It also means over half of the jobs in America are facing an extinction level event within 20 years. Miners, construction workers, farm hands, truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, cashiers, cooks, waiting staff, etc. are all on the precipice of watching their jobs evaporate.

Some jobs will be somewhat secure. For example health and human services, corrections, mechanics, engineering, computer science and programming, and information systems, are not easily automated and probably will remain until sophisticated AI is developed.

So what then for the unemployed? Basic income? Welfare? Starvation?
 
There have been some amazing technological developments the last 10 years. Machinery for mining, construction, and farming has been created that can be programmed to run completely on its own or with a single operator. Trucks, buses, cars, etc. are being developed that are self driving. Retail companies are experimenting with stores where computers automatically tally what you put in your cart and deduct it from your account as you walk out the door. Restaurants are exploring machinery that prepares, cooks, and delivers food on order.

What this means is greater efficiency and reduction in labor and lower costs and higher margins. It also means over half of the jobs in America are facing an extinction level event within 20 years. Miners, construction workers, farm hands, truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, cashiers, cooks, waiting staff, etc. are all on the precipice of watching their jobs evaporate.

Some jobs will be somewhat secure. For example health and human services, corrections, mechanics, engineering, computer science and programming, and information systems, are not easily automated and probably will remain until sophisticated AI is developed.

So what then for the unemployed? Basic income? Welfare? Starvation?

Well, we've already got 97% unemployment given that all the farmers lost their jobs when farming shrank as a percentage of the workforce. And then remember when they brought in those job-killing automobiles? All the farriers, blacksmiths, leatherworkers, stable keepers, etc; all of them, out on the street forever and ever.

Guess we'll have to add on most of the 30% that were in Manufacturing at it's peak.


gonna be hard to have a country with an unemployment rate of ~5%, but with 125% of it's workers unemployed......





Or, maybe, we're developing into a service economy, just as we developed from an agricultural to an industrial economy. I suppose that's a possibility, if a low-probability one.

Nope. We're gonna be facing 125% unemployment as far as the eye can see, sure enough. After all, it's not possible to do anything if you can't do low-skill manual labor in a mid-20th century technology-driven factory...
 
The ostriches with their heads in the ground will simply say that some new employment will be made by the free market...that the loss of the buggy makers due to cars didn't decimate our economy.

The idiots will come out and say that we'll all be robot technicians.



And the realists will say that we are likely in for a rough ride.
 
I rest my case, lol. Guess I was too slow.
 
There have been some amazing technological developments the last 10 years. Machinery for mining, construction, and farming has been created that can be programmed to run completely on its own or with a single operator. Trucks, buses, cars, etc. are being developed that are self driving. Retail companies are experimenting with stores where computers automatically tally what you put in your cart and deduct it from your account as you walk out the door. Restaurants are exploring machinery that prepares, cooks, and delivers food on order.

What this means is greater efficiency and reduction in labor and lower costs and higher margins. It also means over half of the jobs in America are facing an extinction level event within 20 years. Miners, construction workers, farm hands, truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, cashiers, cooks, waiting staff, etc. are all on the precipice of watching their jobs evaporate.

Some jobs will be somewhat secure. For example health and human services, corrections, mechanics, engineering, computer science and programming, and information systems, are not easily automated and probably will remain until sophisticated AI is developed.

So what then for the unemployed? Basic income? Welfare? Starvation?

How about people get themselves a marketable skill
 
How about people get themselves a marketable skill

Like what? If you are a fast food worker are you going to magically materialize tens of thousands of dollars to get a degree in computer programming? And if everyone does that, what does that accomplish aside from lowering the wages in those fields from the inundation of new workers?
 
Like what? If you are a fast food worker are you going to magically materialize tens of thousands of dollars to get a degree in computer programming? And if everyone does that, what does that accomplish aside from lowering the wages in those fields from the inundation of new workers?

Ignoring, of course, the ultimate purpose of automation in the first place...which is, that we all should have to work less.
 
There have been some amazing technological developments the last 10 years. Machinery for mining, construction, and farming has been created that can be programmed to run completely on its own or with a single operator. Trucks, buses, cars, etc. are being developed that are self driving. Retail companies are experimenting with stores where computers automatically tally what you put in your cart and deduct it from your account as you walk out the door. Restaurants are exploring machinery that prepares, cooks, and delivers food on order.

What this means is greater efficiency and reduction in labor and lower costs and higher margins. It also means over half of the jobs in America are facing an extinction level event within 20 years. Miners, construction workers, farm hands, truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, cashiers, cooks, waiting staff, etc. are all on the precipice of watching their jobs evaporate.

Some jobs will be somewhat secure. For example health and human services, corrections, mechanics, engineering, computer science and programming, and information systems, are not easily automated and probably will remain until sophisticated AI is developed.

So what then for the unemployed? Basic income? Welfare? Starvation?

I know, how about, a basic minimum income!? :think:

:roll:

We're not even close to full automation of most of those jobs. Construction? Gimme a break. The faux Chicken Littles will have to wait a while longer for their free stuff. :roll:
 
The obvious answer to needing less people is having less people. The idea that having ever more people as the goal will be changed - how that will be accomplished is what needs to be discussed.
 
Like what? If you are a fast food worker are you going to magically materialize tens of thousands of dollars to get a degree in computer programming? And if everyone does that, what does that accomplish aside from lowering the wages in those fields from the inundation of new workers?

An Associates Degree in IT from a community college costs between $2,500.00 and $3,000.00 in total. That's without deductions for financial aid, scholarships, or deferred payment student loans.

So, yeah, they could. Many have.

Edit - found this for you... Community College: Is An Associate's Degree Right For You? | The Huffington Post
 
Ignoring, of course, the ultimate purpose of automation in the first place...which is, that we all should have to work less.

Automation is meant to increase efficiency and reduce costs.
 
An Associates Degree in IT from a community college costs between $2,500.00 and $3,000.00 in total. That's without deductions for financial aid, scholarships, or deferred payment student loans.

So, yeah, they could. Many have.

Edit - found this for you... Community College: Is An Associate's Degree Right For You? | The Huffington Post

I took two classes from a community college for fun. You are not accounting for books, travel, etc. Not to mention if you are going full time, chances are you are going to have student loans because a part time job won't cut it. You have kids then it is even worse. Seriously? You think a lot of fast food workers aren't already trying to go that route? It is a huge financial risk and a two year degree does not open many doors.
 
The obvious answer to needing less people is having less people. The idea that having ever more people as the goal will be changed - how that will be accomplished is what needs to be discussed.

Kill off all the people not worth several hundred million dollars?
 
I took two classes from a community college for fun. You are not accounting for books, travel, etc. Not to mention if you are going full time, chances are you are going to have student loans because a part time job won't cut it. You have kids then it is even worse. Seriously? You think a lot of fast food workers aren't already trying to go that route? It is a huge financial risk and a two year degree does not open many doors.

That incudes books and people can always find a reason to say no, it's too hard, even if it's to help no one but themselves by getting skills and an education.
 
I know, how about, a basic minimum income!? :think:

:roll:

We're not even close to full automation of most of those jobs. Construction? Gimme a break. The faux Chicken Littles will have to wait a while longer for their free stuff. :roll:

Wow...you are out of touch with the construction industry. You haven't heard of prefab? I have been watching entire buildings appear practically overnight in my city. Shipped from an automated factory and assembled in mere days by a small crew like a giant Lego set.



Construction is changing BIG TIME and fast.
 
The problem that many conveniently ignore is that all jobs will ultimately be automated, every single one. This may not be something the current generation will face but I believe it will probably happen within the next few generations. Many persons in the medical field also believe that starting in this same general time frame medical and health capabilities will allow people to live 2x-3x+ as long as they are now. So we may have people living hundreds of years without any type of gainful employment. Our society will need a significant adjustment.

Sadly I believe very hard times are to come for your average person. Those in a position of wealth and power are not going to want to change the system and its the everyday man that is going to suffer the squeeze until a point where they force a change. Ultimately I believe it will be a governing force that has to step in and (re)distribute goods and services among the population.

(CT) My biggest fear is once we have reached a point where manual labor is no longer necessary that the ruling elites (oligarchy) may deem the lessers as wealth depleting and expendable.
 
Wow...you are out of touch with the construction industry. You haven't heard of prefab? I have been watching entire buildings appear practically overnight in my city. Shipped from an automated factory and assembled in mere days by a small crew like a giant Lego set.



Construction is changing BIG TIME and fast.


I haven't seen it, other than innovations in materials and installation techniques, which still have to be installed by humans. No automatons roaming job sites yet. I'm not worried.

I started to watch the video you posted, and like all left wing chicken little propaganda, it was nothing but vagaries to fool the drones. Perhaps you could explain, in detail, just how kitchens and bathrooms are "fabricated offsite, and assembled like a jigsaw puzzle onsite".
 
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There have been some amazing technological developments the last 10 years. Machinery for mining, construction, and farming has been created that can be programmed to run completely on its own or with a single operator. Trucks, buses, cars, etc. are being developed that are self driving. Retail companies are experimenting with stores where computers automatically tally what you put in your cart and deduct it from your account as you walk out the door. Restaurants are exploring machinery that prepares, cooks, and delivers food on order.

What this means is greater efficiency and reduction in labor and lower costs and higher margins. It also means over half of the jobs in America are facing an extinction level event within 20 years. Miners, construction workers, farm hands, truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, cashiers, cooks, waiting staff, etc. are all on the precipice of watching their jobs evaporate.

Some jobs will be somewhat secure. For example health and human services, corrections, mechanics, engineering, computer science and programming, and information systems, are not easily automated and probably will remain until sophisticated AI is developed.

So what then for the unemployed? Basic income? Welfare? Starvation?

Machines can replace a lot and do a lot, but they cannot completely take humans out of the equation just yet. So even with mining, while there will be some attrition of the human labor force, it won't go to zero. And you'll need humans to build and maintain those robots.

Mostly, we'll likely be alright, but if we're really worried about it, then we need to start grabbing other planets to live on so humans can spread out a bit more.
 
Ignoring, of course, the ultimate purpose of automation in the first place...which is, that we all should have to work less.

Maybe not. Adding automation to my grass mowing service (via a $2K investment on my part) does not mean I will suddenly (or ever) charge you less for cutting your grass. How, exactly, did my automation save you anything? Note that in Walmart you will pay no less for your cart full of stuff if you elect to ring and bag it yourself - you are trading your free service labor to save Walmart money.
 
Maybe not. Adding automation to my grass mowing service (via a $2K investment on my part) does not mean I will suddenly (or ever) charge you less for cutting your grass. How, exactly, did my automation save you anything? Note that in Walmart you will pay no less for your cart full of stuff if you elect to ring and bag it yourself - you are trading your free service labor to save Walmart money.
That others may work less.
 
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