Australia Just Had Four of Its Hottest Days on Record

[Bergslagstroll]

Australia is facing extremly hot weather.

"Australia is in the midst of a scorching heat wave this week that has set all-time temperature records in what has been four of its most sweltering days in history.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Australia said Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday ranked among the top 10 hottest days on record for the country as whole.

Marble Bar in northwest Australia has experienced the hottest temperature since the weekend, topping out at 120.4 degrees Fahrenheit (49.1 degrees Celsius) on Sunday.

Not far behind is Tarcoola in South Australia which hit 120.2 degrees Fahrenheit (49 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday. That is the hottest temperature in its history dating to 1903."

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-...57hNjlcmyADwXYiv7C--19mvLxt0cGAtUsgKQBtt0D4TI

While Europe had an extreme heat wave during the sumer of 2018. There climate change more than doubled the likelihood of the heatwave in Europe.

Heatwave made 'twice as likely by climate change' | University of Oxford

 

[PoS]

Ah its just Australia, who cares- they love getting tans over there anyway. :2razz:

 

[tecoyah]

Australia is facing extremly hot weather.

"Australia is in the midst of a scorching heat wave this week that has set all-time temperature records in what has been four of its most sweltering days in history.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Australia said Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday ranked among the top 10 hottest days on record for the country as whole.

Marble Bar in northwest Australia has experienced the hottest temperature since the weekend, topping out at 120.4 degrees Fahrenheit (49.1 degrees Celsius) on Sunday.

Not far behind is Tarcoola in South Australia which hit 120.2 degrees Fahrenheit (49 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday. That is the hottest temperature in its history dating to 1903."

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-...57hNjlcmyADwXYiv7C--19mvLxt0cGAtUsgKQBtt0D4TI

While Europe had an extreme heat wave during the sumer of 2018. There climate change more than doubled the likelihood of the heatwave in Europe.

Heatwave made 'twice as likely by climate change' | University of Oxford

Get ready for the "But...But....it's snowing in NY". This will have no effect on the minds of our deniers nor will ANYTHING until something directly effects them.....unfortunately it will be their kids who really deal with the realities, and they probably will not be in a forgiving mood.

 

[Jack Hays]

The hottest thing in SA and Victoria tomorrow may be electricity prices


Millions of dollars will be burning on electricity tomorrow

With normal hot summer days expected tomorrow price spikes are forecast.
It’s not that hot

These are hot, but not unusual days for the capitals — Adelaide is forecast to be 41C, the other capitals are tame: Melbourne 33, Canberra 39 and Sydney 30. Though small inland cities are baking – like Albury at 44C.
South Australia could burn $36 million an hour

For South Australia tomorrow the AEMO is forecasting the state will need 2,800MW for 2.5 hours at $12,000/MWh. That could be $35m per hour. Note that forecasts in electricity often vary quite a lot from actuals. Looking at the truckload of cash being offered (from a generators point of view) will presumably bring in some extra supply and lower that price.

Forecast prices for Jan 15th 2019 | AEMO
​

For Victoria, things are even worse

The AEMO is forecasting 9,000MW will be needed at $14,500/MWh for 3 hours. That’s $130 million per hour. Hypothetically, it would be an obscene $390 million dollars just to power the state just from 3 – 6pm. Enough to buy an entire gas fired power plant and have it sitting around all year waiting for spikes.

Forecast prices for Jan 15th 2019 | AEMO
​

For those peak hours, if it hits the price cap, spike pricing would be 400 times more expensive than baseload brown coal. The same $400m dollars could theoretically power the state for 50 days of non-stop electricity from brown coal stations like Hazelwood Power Plant (if only they hadn’t shut it). Though peak prices in midsummer are normally higher so it is not an apples to apples comparison. Note too: These are wholesale spot prices — there are other charges beyond this like the FCAS which will could rise tomorrow too. We are not even counting that.
It sounds outlandish but one two-day heatwave last year cost SA and Vic $400m dollars.
Could this week be the 2019 bonfire heatwave?
The AEMO has issued a LOR (Lack of Reserve) warning — Grade 2 for Victoria

There is a forecast LOR2 for Victoria in place at the moment. The AEMO says reserve available is expected to be 658MW but 978MW is needed. That’s 300 MW short. If the price is right (and it could not get more “right” without breaking the law) presumably there will be some new generation on offer. The availability and demand numbers can dance around a lot. This afternoon, the AEMO has issued two updates and curiously the situation has got worse with each update, not better.
But hey, it might be windier than they expect tomorrow, and then everything will be just fine.
UPDATE 10PM: Victorian LOR2 downgraded to LOR1. Expected reserve capacity now 1002MW. The required is 1090MW. The people in the control room must be very very busy.
TonyFromOz explains that all our available coal power is running flat out. The peak today (Monday) was 32,000MW.
Forerunner to tomorrow was the Peak today at 5PM. Total power generation (therefore total power consumption) was 32300MW. There are currently three coal fired Units off line, (one in each State still with coal fired power) so the total available coal fired power Nameplate is 19600MW. The total coal fired power being delivered at 5PM was 19200MW.
Add on natural gas fired power and the smaller Other sources, and the total CO2 emitting power on line delivering power at 5PM came in at 81.2% of that total. Hydro was at 12.2, and wind and solar power combined was delivering 6.6%.
And tomorrow, they say it will be even higher. Coal fired power is running at max already.
Hmm! Imagine if there was just one more coal fired power plant, umm, say even that ancient old clunker Hazelwood.
Take away coal fired power, umm, tell ‘em they’re dreamin! . . .

 

[Lord of Planar]

Australia is facing extremly hot weather.

"Australia is in the midst of a scorching heat wave this week that has set all-time temperature records in what has been four of its most sweltering days in history.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Australia said Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday ranked among the top 10 hottest days on record for the country as whole.

Marble Bar in northwest Australia has experienced the hottest temperature since the weekend, topping out at 120.4 degrees Fahrenheit (49.1 degrees Celsius) on Sunday.

Not far behind is Tarcoola in South Australia which hit 120.2 degrees Fahrenheit (49 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday. That is the hottest temperature in its history dating to 1903."

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-...57hNjlcmyADwXYiv7C--19mvLxt0cGAtUsgKQBtt0D4TI

While Europe had an extreme heat wave during the sumer of 2018. There climate change more than doubled the likelihood of the heatwave in Europe.

Heatwave made 'twice as likely by climate change' | University of Oxford

Yes, it's a no brainier. The urban heat island effect will do that.

Whoop t- do...

 

[Neomalthusian]

Australia is facing extremly hot weather.

"Australia is in the midst of a scorching heat wave this week that has set all-time temperature records in what has been four of its most sweltering days in history.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Australia said Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday ranked among the top 10 hottest days on record for the country as whole.

Marble Bar in northwest Australia has experienced the hottest temperature since the weekend, topping out at 120.4 degrees Fahrenheit (49.1 degrees Celsius) on Sunday.

Not far behind is Tarcoola in South Australia which hit 120.2 degrees Fahrenheit (49 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday. That is the hottest temperature in its history dating to 1903."

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-...57hNjlcmyADwXYiv7C--19mvLxt0cGAtUsgKQBtt0D4TI

While Europe had an extreme heat wave during the sumer of 2018. There climate change more than doubled the likelihood of the heatwave in Europe.

Heatwave made 'twice as likely by climate change' | University of Oxford

There is tons of evidence the Earth has been progressively warming for thousands of years, so if that's the direction we've been heading, then on average we are perpetually going to reach "record highs." Kind of like the stock market. Over the course of time, it reaches "record highs" over and over again.

 

[Quaestio]

Yes, it's a no brainier. The urban heat island effect will do that.

Whoop t- do...

SMH. Yes that was certainly a "no-brain" post. The highest temperatures were not in urban areas.

 

[Quaestio]

The hottest thing in SA and Victoria tomorrow may be electricity prices


Millions of dollars will be burning on electricity tomorrow

With normal hot summer days expected tomorrow price spikes are forecast.
It’s not that hot

These are hot, but not unusual days for the capitals — Adelaide is forecast to be 41C, the other capitals are tame: Melbourne 33, Canberra 39 and Sydney 30. Though small inland cities are baking – like Albury at 44C.

More copied and pasted BS from one of your pseudoscience conspiracy blogs.

 

[Jack Hays]

More copied and pasted BS from one of your pseudoscience conspiracy blogs.

Default ad hominem to dodge the data.

 

[Quaestio]

Default ad hominem to dodge the data.

Default mindlessly copied and pasted dishonest conspiracy blog post to distort the facts.

 

[Bergslagstroll]

Get ready for the "But...But....it's snowing in NY". This will have no effect on the minds of our deniers nor will ANYTHING until something directly effects them.....unfortunately it will be their kids who really deal with the realities, and they probably will not be in a forgiving mood.

You don’t have to convince everyone, just enough people for real change to happen. There two thirds of American give priority to developing alternative energy sources, like solar and wind power. Two thirds of Americans also wanted US to stay in the Paris accord.

Most in US say alternative energy takes priority over fossil fuels

https://www.theatlantic.com/science...upport-staying-in-the-paris-agreement/528663/

Also having communities, governments, corporations and individuals leading the way in the transition away from fossil fuels have drastically reduced the cost of renewable energy. So that even local Republican politicians are starting to see the benefits of renewable energy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshua...n-leaders-love-renewable-energy/#631e530f3da7

 

[Bergslagstroll]

SMH. Yes that was certainly a "no-brain" post. The highest temperatures were not in urban areas.

Yes and manmade global warming have increased the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia.

“The big picture: While the proximate causes for Australia's heat waves in late 2018 and early 2019 include a weak El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the BOM and the country's main climate agency, CSIRO, have concluded that Australia's climate is changing as a result of human-caused global warming.

For example, in a climate report summarizing 2018's conditions, these agencies found:

Australia's climate has warmed just over 1°C, or 1.8°F since 1910, "leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events."

Oceans around Australia have warmed by nearly the same amount since 1910, "contributing to longer and more frequent marine heat waves."

In addition, the length and severity of the fire season has increased "across large parts of Australia," the report found.”

https://www.axios.com/australia-hea...ght-9dd9ad1c-65a0-4a45-9e1b-1f9daeceb9cf.html

There also for example the extreme heat wave last summer in Sweden was all over the country, including the desolate northern interior parts

https://translate.google.com/transl...ngvarig-hetta-och-svara-skogsbrander-1.137248

 

[Bergslagstroll]

There is tons of evidence the Earth has been progressively warming for thousands of years, so if that's the direction we've been heading, then on average we are perpetually going to reach "record highs." Kind of like the stock market. Over the course of time, it reaches "record highs" over and over again.

Even federal agencies under Donald Trump acknowledge manmade global warming and its devastating effects.

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

 

[tecoyah]

You don’t have to convince everyone, just enough people for real change to happen. There two thirds of American give priority to developing alternative energy sources, like solar and wind power. Two thirds of Americans also wanted US to stay in the Paris accord.

Most in US say alternative energy takes priority over fossil fuels

https://www.theatlantic.com/science...upport-staying-in-the-paris-agreement/528663/

Also having communities, governments, corporations and individuals leading the way in the transition away from fossil fuels have drastically reduced the cost of renewable energy. So that even local Republican politicians are starting to see the benefits of renewable energy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshua...n-leaders-love-renewable-energy/#631e530f3da7

In an absolutely perfect scenario as you present it, it would be too little too late and the way global society functions perfection is not an option. Australia is merely an early example because of location.

 

[marke]

Australia is facing extremly hot weather.

"Australia is in the midst of a scorching heat wave this week that has set all-time temperature records in what has been four of its most sweltering days in history.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Australia said Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday ranked among the top 10 hottest days on record for the country as whole.

Marble Bar in northwest Australia has experienced the hottest temperature since the weekend, topping out at 120.4 degrees Fahrenheit (49.1 degrees Celsius) on Sunday.

Not far behind is Tarcoola in South Australia which hit 120.2 degrees Fahrenheit (49 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday. That is the hottest temperature in its history dating to 1903."

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-...57hNjlcmyADwXYiv7C--19mvLxt0cGAtUsgKQBtt0D4TI

While Europe had an extreme heat wave during the sumer of 2018. There climate change more than doubled the likelihood of the heatwave in Europe.

Heatwave made 'twice as likely by climate change' | University of Oxford

When chicken little goes berzerk about bad weather at least he doesn't get the stupid idea that he can do something to change it.

 

[Quaestio]

Even federal agencies under Donald Trump acknowledge manmade global warming and its devastating effects.

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

But the 'internet warrior' 'climate truther' 'experts' know better. It's all a conspiracy and all the scientists are all corrupt or wrong.

 

[Quaestio]

When chicken little goes berzerk about bad weather at least he doesn't get the stupid idea that he can do something to change it.

Says the person who believes the earth is only 6000 years old.

 

[marke]

Says the person who believes the earth is only 6000 years old.

Exactly.

 

[code1211]

Yes and manmade global warming have increased the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia.

“The big picture: While the proximate causes for Australia's heat waves in late 2018 and early 2019 include a weak El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the BOM and the country's main climate agency, CSIRO, have concluded that Australia's climate is changing as a result of human-caused global warming.

For example, in a climate report summarizing 2018's conditions, these agencies found:

Australia's climate has warmed just over 1°C, or 1.8°F since 1910, "leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events."

Oceans around Australia have warmed by nearly the same amount since 1910, "contributing to longer and more frequent marine heat waves."

In addition, the length and severity of the fire season has increased "across large parts of Australia," the report found.”

https://www.axios.com/australia-hea...ght-9dd9ad1c-65a0-4a45-9e1b-1f9daeceb9cf.html

There also for example the extreme heat wave last summer in Sweden was all over the country, including the desolate northern interior parts

https://translate.google.com/transl...ngvarig-hetta-och-svara-skogsbrander-1.137248

Fire events seem more related to drought than to heat, but the prevailing weather can vary up or down in both temperature and precipitation.

People who seem to know about these things believe that the Sahara Desert was a Great Plains kind of place thousands of years ago. Desertification happens. As far as I know, the evils of the I.C.E. were unknown thousands of years ago.

Regarding warming in general, I'm going to retire soon and and I'll be headed south. I may not experience Global Warming, but I do plan to experience warming that is local to me.

If the Global Warms about another degree or so, it will be as warm as it was at the warmest point in this interglacial. If we warm another 2 or 3 degrees above that, we'll be as warm as we were at the temperature peaks of the 4 previous interglacials.

Again, no fossil fuels burned in those periods to drive the increase of CO2 concentrations and no increased CO2 concentration observed in the records.

In spite of this, the "Global" Warmed. Warmed to levels far above the level of today. Almost might make you think that the impact of CO2 is NOT the prime driver of warming.

How much reduced is the Greenhouse impact of an incremental atmospheric concentration increase of 20 ppm of CO2 from the current level compared to the impact from the level of 280 ppm? From 100 ppm? From 10 ppm?

The answer is that the current temperature impact is becoming less and less from each incremental increase.

Also, what impact can we have on this temperature system by putting up windmills when China and India are bringing another good sized, coal fired power plant on line every week or so?

 

[Neomalthusian]

Even federal agencies under Donald Trump acknowledge manmade global warming and its devastating effects.

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

That’s fine. Still, the trend is warming, going back farther than when it could have been man-made, which means new records will be hit all the time.

 

[Quaestio]

Says the person who believes the earth is only 6000 years old.

Exactly.

:mrgreen:

 

[Bergslagstroll]

But the 'internet warrior' 'climate truther' 'experts' know better. It's all a conspiracy and all the scientists are all corrupt or wrong.

Not only that but both also that both Republicans and the fossil fuel companies would have to be extremly incompotent. That Bush was president for eight years, Trump have been for two years and you have also have Republican congresses. So all those Republicans should have been able to use federal funds to disprove manmade global warning if any evidence existed. Instead federal agencies countinue to acknolwedge manmade global warming.

While the fossil fuel companies are amongst the most profitable companies in the world, so they could also have easily fund studies to disprove manmade global warming if any evidence existed. Instead the fossil fuel companies own studies show that manmade global warming is real and will have devasting effects.

 

[Bergslagstroll]

Fire events seem more related to drought than to heat, but the prevailing weather can vary up or down in both temperature and precipitation.

People who seem to know about these things believe that the Sahara Desert was a Great Plains kind of place thousands of years ago. Desertification happens. As far as I know, the evils of the I.C.E. were unknown thousands of years ago.

Regarding warming in general, I'm going to retire soon and and I'll be headed south. I may not experience Global Warming, but I do plan to experience warming that is local to me.

If the Global Warms about another degree or so, it will be as warm as it was at the warmest point in this interglacial. If we warm another 2 or 3 degrees above that, we'll be as warm as we were at the temperature peaks of the 4 previous interglacials.

Again, no fossil fuels burned in those periods to drive the increase of CO2 concentrations and no increased CO2 concentration observed in the records.

In spite of this, the "Global" Warmed. Warmed to levels far above the level of today. Almost might make you think that the impact of CO2 is NOT the prime driver of warming.

How much reduced is the Greenhouse impact of an incremental atmospheric concentration increase of 20 ppm of CO2 from the current level compared to the impact from the level of 280 ppm? From 100 ppm? From 10 ppm?

The answer is that the current temperature impact is becoming less and less from each incremental increase.

Also, what impact can we have on this temperature system by putting up windmills when China and India are bringing another good sized, coal fired power plant on line every week or so?

Changes in the sun can't explain the recent warming.

"But several lines of evidence show that current global warming cannot be explained by changes in energy from the sun:

Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the sun either remained constant or increased slightly.

If the warming were caused by a more active sun, then scientists would expect to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere, and a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gases are trapping heat in the lower atmosphere.

Climate models that include solar irradiance changes can’t reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases."

https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

 

[Quaestio]

Not only that but both also that both Republicans and the fossil fuel companies would have to be extremly incompotent. That Bush was president for eight years, Trump have been for two years and you have also have Republican congresses. So all those Republicans should have been able to use federal funds to disprove manmade global warning if any evidence existed. Instead federal agencies countinue to acknolwedge manmade global warming.

But but...thousands of scientists were all crooked and "faking data" because they were on the "government gravy boat"! All over the world too! - even under all those different governments!

While the fossil fuel companies are amongst the most profitable companies in the world, so they could also have easily fund studies to disprove manmade global warming if any evidence existed. Instead the fossil fuel companies own studies show that manmade global warming is real and will have devasting effects.

Yes they've known since the late 70's of the effects of increasing greenhouse gases. They even had plans for taking advantage of when the ice in arctic regions melted and they could drill for more oil. But they are still funding propaganda 'science'. Just read some of the ridiculous papers from paid "skeptics" in the Energy and Environment Journal. Well known for it's crap "peer review" and for being a dumping ground to publish climate change denial papers. Read the pseudoscience propaganda from the fossil fuel funded Heartland Institute or other conservative/libertarian think tanks like the Cato Institute.

 

[Quaestio]

Changes in the sun can't explain the recent warming.

"But several lines of evidence show that current global warming cannot be explained by changes in energy from the sun:

Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the sun either remained constant or increased slightly.

If the warming were caused by a more active sun, then scientists would expect to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere, and a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gases are trapping heat in the lower atmosphere.

Climate models that include solar irradiance changes can’t reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases."

https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

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