The Modern Whigs were represented by Rob Withers at a wall to wall attendance event described here:
Events | Foreign Policy Initiative. It was a great detailed presentation and I got to ask my question, including an announcement of my affiliation: The Modern Whig Party of Virginia. This came back later as several people asked about it afterwards and I got to do my elevator speech in an actual elevator with 9 listeners.
Opening Remarks:
The relationship between the US and Iraq is fundamentally changing from the way it has been for 7 years.
The internal politics and balance of power in Iraq is fundamentally changing. 2005 saw sectarian parties be successful. 2010 will see secular nationalists be successful.
One plank of the secular nationalists is that they do not want US assistance and want us to go.
As we have disengaged our military, weaknesses in the Iraqi security forces have shown themselves. Iraqis know that we brought a lot of needed assistance to the table. This fact does not dissuade the politics.
Iraqis know two things about the US:
- The Americans brought a lot of capability, assistance, and resources to solve problems that the Iraqis are finding are difficult to solve.
- The Americans are delivering on their word to leave according to the SOFA
The initial results (33% reporting or so) have the following parties in order by a close margin:
- State of Law <Maliki> (Shia)
- Iraqi List <Allawi> (mostly Sunni, but most secular nationalist)
- Iraq National Alliance <al’Hakim> (Shia with ISCI and Sadr (which could split))
- Kurdistan Alliance <Talabani, Barzani> (Kurd)
- Unity of Iraq (Sunni), List of Change (Kurd), others…
The parties must form a coalition. It will probably take 3 of the 4 largest parties above to form a coalition. A coalition without the Kurds is a non-starter. A coalition without the Sunnis is a non-starter. There for it is most likely one of:
- State of Law/Iraqi List/Kurdistan Alliance
- Iraq National Alliance/Iraqi List/Kurdistan Alliance
The parties are already jostling for alliances.
The timeline for the government formation is problematic as there are some unspecified timelines. It will be weeks before the official, certified results are out.
- Preliminary Results – March 11, 2010
- Uncertified Official Results – March 22, 2010
- Certified Official Results – April 10, 2010
- Council of Representatives (CoR) convenes – April 25, 2010
- CoR Speaker elected – April 25, 2010
- President elected – NO DEADLINE
- Presidential charge to form government – 15 days from election of president
- Prime Minister – Designate selects his cabinet and presents names – 30 days from designation
- List of Ministers and Platform of government approved by the CoR – NO DEADLINE
Question and Answer:
Q1: What is the effect of Iraq’s democracy on the Arab states and what can we be doing?
A1: Now is the time to press the Arab states to form relationships with the Iraqis. They are resistant.
We no longer emphasize democracy since the 2006 debacle in the West Bank. The president does not discuss democracy, but stability and progress.
Q2: (me!) What is the effect of Iraq’s democracy and this election on the Green Movement in Iran and on the clerical establishment in Iran?
A2: Iran state media is lying about events in Iraq. They create accusations of the US involvement even though we are out in large part.
Iterations of elections in Iraq will tell the truth to Iran.
Religious pilgrams to Najaf are seeing firsthand what changes are wrought.
Q3: What is up with Kirkuk?
A3: There is a bill 140 which talks about the status of Kirkuk. It relies on representation.
Kirkuk had the highest turnout at the election of, get this, 73%!
There was high turnout among all the ethnic groups: Kurd, Arab/Sunni, Turkomen.
Other questions I don’t recall…