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Attending a public forum on Iraq's future after the elections

Ask if it would be morally justifiable to keep troops in Iraq past the withdraw deadline in if it meant keeping the peace and preventing people or at least making it harder for people to kill each other. Assume for the question that statements such as we are stealing their oil, turning Iraq into a puppet state, etc are true and just focus on that question.
 
Wiseone said:
Ask if it would be morally justifiable to keep troops in Iraq past the withdraw deadline in if it meant keeping the peace and preventing people or at least making it harder for people to kill each other. Assume for the question that statements such as we are stealing their oil, turning Iraq into a puppet state, etc are true and just focus on that question.
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We are keeping 50,000 troops in Iraq past the withdrawal deadline for combat forces.

I could ask them if they think it is morally justifiable.

The reasons are certainly sound, keeping the peace and making it harder for them to kill each other. Of course, all current security operations in the country are now led and executed by Iraqis.

Are we stealing their oil? I don't think so.
Are they a puppet state? Not ours nor Irans.

I think you need to re-evaluate your assumptions. It's best to approach these international situations with a clear head.
 
I just said assume those two factors to avoid the question getting sidetracked into discussions about how we'd use moral justification to continue those two supposed goals, but the question still stands on its own.
You could also ask if its justifiable any other way.
 
Wiseone said:
I just said assume those two factors to avoid the question getting sidetracked into discussions about how we'd use moral justification to continue those two supposed goals, but the question still stands on its own.
You could also ask if its justifiable any other way.
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Where are you getting that stealing their oil and establishing a puppet state are our goals? They were never our goals. Establishing an independent, stable democracy was our goal.

What other ways can justifiable be than moral?
 
You misunderstood me I don't believe we are stealing their oil or creating a puppet state, I believe the goal is to create a strong unified democratic Iraq to counter balance Iran and act as a regional leader in the Middle East as well as an American ally. I just meant assume those were true and ask the question making it clear you aren't looking for ways people could think of using a moral justification as a cover for any assumed "evil schemes."

And you could even ask a follow up, assuming it is morally justifiable would be justifiable by realpolitik and what would the cost of such an action, remaining to preserve peace, be. Is it possible for a moral argument/reason to compensate for all or part of a lack of a "good enough reason" to stay to preserve peace was not found or not sufficient from realpolitik alone, if that was the consensus?
 
Wiseone said:
You misunderstood me I don't believe we are stealing their oil or creating a puppet state, I believe the goal is to create a strong unified democratic Iraq to counter balance Iran and act as a regional leader in the Middle East as well as an American ally. I just meant assume those were true and ask the question making it clear you aren't looking for ways people could think of using a moral justification as a cover for any assumed "evil schemes."

And you could even ask a follow up, assuming it is morally justifiable would be justifiable by realpolitik and what would the cost of such an action, remaining to preserve peace, be. Is it possible for a moral argument/reason to compensate for all or part of a lack of a "good enough reason" to stay to preserve peace was not found or not sufficient from realpolitik alone, if that was the consensus?
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I see what you were driving at now. I actually don't believe that kind of question, moral justification, is very useful given the forum topic. We will probably discuss the effect and impact the elections could have on relations with the MNF Command and embassy and with neighboring countries. So we will be in the area of the realpolitik reason d'etre. The core question is whether our presence helps their democracy develop.

The question I am planning to ask is which parties do the various Iraqi security services favor, Sunni, Shia and Kurd? Is it secular parties or religious parties or is it too mixed to define.
 
reefedjib said:
The question I am planning to ask is which parties do the various Iraqi security services favor, Sunni, Shia and Kurd? Is it secular parties or religious parties or is it too mixed to define.
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I will extend this question to include the entrepreneur class. Who do small business owners support?

Please leave more questions for me to ask.
 
I would ask if one of the long term goals is to establish a permanent peace time base in Iraq, kind of like what we have in Japan or Europe.
 
WI Crippler said:
I would ask if one of the long term goals is to establish a permanent peace time base in Iraq, kind of like what we have in Japan or Europe.
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That's a great question. Perhaps the need for a permanent base will be judged by the levels of violence at the election, the degree of corruption with the vote, and the length of time it takes to form a coalition government.
 
What is the effect of an apparently successful Shiite democracy in Iraq on the Green Movement in Iran?
 
cpwill said:
What is the effect of an apparently successful Shiite democracy in Iraq on the Green Movement in Iran?
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If you are asking what I think you are asking, that's an excellent question. To clarify, the Green Movement in Iran is the protest movement that has been demonstrating over the past year, correct?

I have read that while Iran is influencing Iraq through diplomacy and through the Qods Force activities inside Iraq, at the same time Iraq has been influencing Iran through dissemination of the Quietist School in Qom, Iran. What I don't know is what degree Iraq sets an example for the average person in Iran. I suspect the media in Iran is controlled and the Iranians do not have an accurate picture of what is happening. Who knows?

I will ask this question, as it is more interesting than the one I had. Thank you.
 
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I got confused. The link in the initial post is to an event in the morning, hosted by Kim Kagan, of the Institute for the Study of War.

The event I am attending is in the evening from 6:30 PM - 8 PM. It is jointly hosted by The Foreign Policy Initiative and the Institute for the Study of War. Here's the link: Events | Foreign Policy Initiative.

If you are in the area, come on by.
 
reefedjib said:
If you are asking what I think you are asking, that's an excellent question. To clarify, the Green Movement in Iran is the protest movement that has been demonstrating over the past year, correct?

I have read that while Iran is influencing Iraq through diplomacy and through the Qods Force activities inside Iraq, at the same time Iraq has been influencing Iran through dissemination of the Quietist School in Qom, Iran. What I don't know is what degree Iraq sets an example for the average person in Iran. I suspect the media in Iran is controlled and the Iranians do not have an accurate picture of what is happening. Who knows?

I will ask this question, as it is more interesting than the one I had. Thank you.
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Within Shia Islam; Grand Ayatollah Sistani, of Iraq, outranks every mullah and henchmen in Irans' government. It's going to be an interesting showdown. :) glad I could help! let us know how it goes.
 
cpwill said:
Within Shia Islam; Grand Ayatollah Sistani, of Iraq, outranks every mullah and henchmen in Irans' government. It's going to be an interesting showdown. :) glad I could help! let us know how it goes.
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I will. Hopefully there will be video of the morning session I can post.
 
I thought I would post some of the research results I found about political parties in Iraq. One note of interest is that many of the parties, especially Shia and Sunni, are casting themselves as secular nationalist parties.

ed: parties with an asterix (*) are major parties.

Political Parties
Shia
  • *Iraq National Alliance (INA) - <al'Hakim> [ISCI, Badr, Sadr, al'Jaafari, al'Chalabi]
  • *State of Law <Maliki> [Dawa]
Sunni
  • *Iraqi List <Allawi>
  • *Unity of Iraq <al'Bolani, Abu Risha> [Sons of Iraq]
  • Tawafuq (Iraqi Accord Front) [Iraqi Islamic Party]
Kurd
  • *Kurdistan Alliance <Talabani, Barzani> [Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)]
  • *List of Change <Mustafa> [Gorran]
  • Kurdistan Islamic Union
  • Islamic Group

It seems to me that it is the Sunni parties which are most interesting, although the List of Change (Kurd) party could upset Kurdistan politics.
 
The Modern Whigs were represented by Rob Withers at a wall to wall attendance event described here: Events | Foreign Policy Initiative. It was a great detailed presentation and I got to ask my question, including an announcement of my affiliation: The Modern Whig Party of Virginia. This came back later as several people asked about it afterwards and I got to do my elevator speech in an actual elevator with 9 listeners. :)

Opening Remarks:
The relationship between the US and Iraq is fundamentally changing from the way it has been for 7 years.

The internal politics and balance of power in Iraq is fundamentally changing. 2005 saw sectarian parties be successful. 2010 will see secular nationalists be successful.

One plank of the secular nationalists is that they do not want US assistance and want us to go.

As we have disengaged our military, weaknesses in the Iraqi security forces have shown themselves. Iraqis know that we brought a lot of needed assistance to the table. This fact does not dissuade the politics.

Iraqis know two things about the US:
  • The Americans brought a lot of capability, assistance, and resources to solve problems that the Iraqis are finding are difficult to solve.
  • The Americans are delivering on their word to leave according to the SOFA

The initial results (33% reporting or so) have the following parties in order by a close margin:
  1. State of Law <Maliki> (Shia)
  2. Iraqi List <Allawi> (mostly Sunni, but most secular nationalist)
  3. Iraq National Alliance <al’Hakim> (Shia with ISCI and Sadr (which could split))
  4. Kurdistan Alliance <Talabani, Barzani> (Kurd)
  5. Unity of Iraq (Sunni), List of Change (Kurd), others…

The parties must form a coalition. It will probably take 3 of the 4 largest parties above to form a coalition. A coalition without the Kurds is a non-starter. A coalition without the Sunnis is a non-starter. There for it is most likely one of:
  • State of Law/Iraqi List/Kurdistan Alliance
  • Iraq National Alliance/Iraqi List/Kurdistan Alliance

The parties are already jostling for alliances.

The timeline for the government formation is problematic as there are some unspecified timelines. It will be weeks before the official, certified results are out.

  • Preliminary Results – March 11, 2010
  • Uncertified Official Results – March 22, 2010
  • Certified Official Results – April 10, 2010
  • Council of Representatives (CoR) convenes – April 25, 2010
  • CoR Speaker elected – April 25, 2010
  • President elected – NO DEADLINE
  • Presidential charge to form government – 15 days from election of president
  • Prime Minister – Designate selects his cabinet and presents names – 30 days from designation
  • List of Ministers and Platform of government approved by the CoR – NO DEADLINE

Question and Answer:
Q1: What is the effect of Iraq’s democracy on the Arab states and what can we be doing?
A1: Now is the time to press the Arab states to form relationships with the Iraqis. They are resistant.
We no longer emphasize democracy since the 2006 debacle in the West Bank. The president does not discuss democracy, but stability and progress.

Q2: (me!) What is the effect of Iraq’s democracy and this election on the Green Movement in Iran and on the clerical establishment in Iran?
A2: Iran state media is lying about events in Iraq. They create accusations of the US involvement even though we are out in large part.
Iterations of elections in Iraq will tell the truth to Iran.
Religious pilgrams to Najaf are seeing firsthand what changes are wrought.

Q3: What is up with Kirkuk?
A3: There is a bill 140 which talks about the status of Kirkuk. It relies on representation.
Kirkuk had the highest turnout at the election of, get this, 73%!
There was high turnout among all the ethnic groups: Kurd, Arab/Sunni, Turkomen.

Other questions I don’t recall…
 
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