11.18.22
Military failure in Ukraine is undermining the stability of the Russian state. The Kremlin has tried to disguise its war losses to prevent negative domestic reactions, but the reality of failure is becoming increasingly obvious, most recently in the retreat from Kherson soon after the region was constitutionally incorporated in the Russian Federation. Russia’s convulsions are evident in high-level criticisms of state policy, purges in the military, political, and economic structures, conflicts within the security institutions, resistance to mobilization and mounting regional unrest. Russia’ s military lost the battles for Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, and continues to lose ground in other occupied territories. Its war losses are enormous, with a conservative estimate of over 80,000 dead, incapacitated or captured, together with several thousand destroyed or captured aircraft, tanks and other heavy equipment. These staggering losses have seriously depleted military capabilities and decimated elite units. Internal Russian criticisms over the planning and conduct of the war have mushroomed despite strict state censorship. Russia’s first mass mobilization since World War II has provoked widespread discontent. Almost 1 million men fled the country to avoid mobilization, and several thousand were arrested at anti-war protests in more than 50 cities.
There is frequent reshuffling of the Russian command structure and a constant purge of senior officers blamed for a poorly designed war strategy. Alongside the military purges, there has been a spate of suspicious deaths among oligarchs and critics of the Kremlin. At least a dozen Russian oligarchs have died in unexplained circumstances. Disputes between security institutions have mushroomed. Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who controls the Wagner paramilitary groups, has lambasted Russia’s military commanders and Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The terrain is opening for alternative voices, particularly for nations and regions demanding independence, including the recently established Free Nations of Post-Russia. By assembling émigré activists from several nations and regions, including the Middle Volga, Siberia, the North Caucasus and Russia’s Northwest, they are giving voice to long-suppressed aspirations for liberation. Vitriolic Kremlin attacks on such initiatives underscore its fears of growing challenges to Moscow’s rule as Russia faces a grueling winter of defeat in Ukraine.
thehill.com
