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As Lumber Prices Fall, the Threat of Inflation Loses Its Bite

JustAFella

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It's a good thing that all anyone spends money on is lumber.

Ha. Right. Never once in my life had I heard about the price of lumber until the GOP lost a national election.
 

Airyaman

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You devote so much energy to not realizing what's right in front of you.

Jalbert said it could take several weeks for price reductions to take effect in retail home centers. And even then, he added, "people should know that prices are probably not going to fall to the levels that they were before the pandemic."

So prices are still going to be pretty high, which means inflation is still there.
 

Airyaman

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To be fair, it isn't quite in front of him yet. The question is what he'll say when Home Depot goes back to charging $3 for a 2x4.

Plus, money illusion is a thing.
$3 2x4s are gone for the foreseeable future, if not forever. I'm predicting they will settle in at about $4.50/$5.
 

Gimmesometruth

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which means inflation is still there.
I still have no idea why folks like you believe S/D effects are equated with monetary inflation. Even the NPR article you pointed to clearly shows it to be PRIMARILY a matter of supply and demand.
 

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I still have no idea why folks like you believe S/D effects are equated with monetary inflation. Even the NPR article you pointed to clearly shows it to be PRIMARILY a matter of supply and demand.
Does supply and demand not change the CPI, which is a primary means of measuring inflation?

 

Gimmesometruth

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Does supply and demand not change the CPI, which is a primary means of measuring inflation?

it measures price changes, inflation is a general price rise as a result of declines in the value of the dollar. Temp rises due to s/d are NOT "inflation". Again, if it was "inflation", the price would not decline in such a short period.
 

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it measures price changes, inflation is a general price rise as a result of declines in the value of the dollar. Temp rises due to s/d are NOT "inflation". Again, if it was "inflation", the price would not decline in such a short period.
Then this whole thread is useless and the title is a lie?
 

Gimmesometruth

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Then this whole thread is useless and the title is a lie?
It represents, generally, the REALLY POOR economics education we get in this country. I was REALLY dumb prior to 2007, you can say I had a "crash course" as a result.
 

Airyaman

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It represents, generally, the REALLY POOR economics education we get in this country. I was REALLY dumb prior to 2007, you can say I had a "crash course" as a result.
So the article is wrong too? There are several beyond the one pointed to in the OP that tie falling lumber prices with the lessening threat of inflation.

Is this article wrong?


Inflation can result when either: 1) the total of all goods and services demanded exceeds production, or 2) the amount of all goods and services supplied by producers decreases.
 
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Kushinator

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You believe the Fed signaled as much last week? By suggesting they may increase interest rates in...2023?

Wow. If that's not a sign of sheer terror, what is?
Don't mind him... he's just a motivated partisan who once claimed we would never recover during the Obama administration due to similar claims of hyperinflation/ZIRP.
 

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So the article is wrong too? There are several beyond the one pointed to in the OP that tie falling lumber prices with the lessening threat of inflation.

Is this article wrong?

Lets put context in here. Ever since Joe got the WH, cons and inflation hawks have been squeaking about ALL DUH STIMULUS and how it is going to cause Wiemar wheelbarrows. They point to lumber, gasoline....and yet they somehow can't remember COVID and its huge disruption of everything. Nearly all price rises are a result of that disruption, not from money going into circulation. Further, they still haven't learned how VERY low interest rates effect all of this, even though we have been in this state since '09. They were wrong then, they are still wrong now. It is going to be a couple of years before any of this settles, especially with just half here getting vaxed, and the rest of the world not anywhere near that. That effect is the main effect, not money in the system.....it is still S/D...and that is not a general price rise on goods and services, since....prices are already falling. Did the Treasury pull a whole bunch of dollars out, suddenly causing prices to drop? Nope, supply increased, demand relaxed a bit.
There is a reason we ALWAYS remove energy and food from inflation calcs, it is due to their price volatility.
 
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How disappointing for the GOP who've been cheering for a recession with which to trash Biden.

And so, yet another attempt to find a real issue fails for them. So I guess we're back to culture wars and paranoid fantasies.
 

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And yet...
The point of the article you provided is to undermine everything you've been posting about inflation.

"Even as he acknowledged quickening inflation last week, Powell pointed to the recent roller coaster in the lumber market to explain why it will subside."

Powell uses lumber as an example of why cries for runaway inflation is wrong.

The opposite of your point.

Congratulations! A superb own-goal!
 

Airyaman

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The point of the article you provided is to undermine everything you've been posting about inflation.

"Even as he acknowledged quickening inflation last week, Powell pointed to the recent roller coaster in the lumber market to explain why it will subside."

Powell uses lumber as an example of why cries for runaway inflation is wrong.

The opposite of your point.

Congratulations! A superb own-goal!
Please do point out a single post in here where I said anything about runaway inflation.

Good luck.

(I won't hold my breath)
 

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No kidding. And it's in the face of this uncertainty the Fed has to make decisions, including not to overreact to temporary price increases in some areas. Those decisions is what this and similar threads are about.
It's actually encouraging that the Fed is slow to raise rates and choke off the recovery based on possible, maybe, inflation that's not tied to structural issues like we see in lumber. Greenspan would no doubt be jacking up rates to kill any hope of rising wages, which he appeared dead set against allowing for the proles and regular workers.

Anyway, sure wish my local Lowes was reflecting the decreased cost of lumber. I just paid about $75 for two 4x4 sheets of ordinary plywood that I'm using to build a couple of above the garage door shelves for long term storage of coolers, lawn chairs, etc...
 
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And yet...
I already responded to this earlier LMAO. Do you know what Powell actually said? Here I will quote him directly for your clueless self:

“Those are things that we would look to, to stop going up and ultimately to start to decline as these situations resolve themselves,” Powell said. “They don’t speak to a broadly tight economy — the kind of thing that has led to high inflation over time.”

Powell is saying:
1. Price increases in certain goods does not indicate a "broadly tight economy"
2. A "broadly tight economy" is something that leads to high inflation

Ergo, you just posted a link about something that argues against your position. The price of lumber does not mean there is inflation, because inflation, don't you know, is based on a basket of goods, and a general increase in prices, not movements in the price of individual goods over the short term. So, again, you have no idea what you're talking about.
 

Airyaman

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I already responded to this earlier LMAO. Do you know what Powell actually said? Here I will quote him directly for your clueless self:

“Those are things that we would look to, to stop going up and ultimately to start to decline as these situations resolve themselves,” Powell said. “They don’t speak to a broadly tight economy — the kind of thing that has led to high inflation over time.”

Powell is saying:
1. Price increases in certain goods does not indicate a "broadly tight economy"
2. A "broadly tight economy" is something that leads to high inflation

Ergo, you just posted a link about something that argues against your position. The price of lumber does not mean there is inflation, because inflation, don't you know, is based on a basket of goods, and a general increase in prices, not movements in the price of individual goods over the short term. So, again, you have no idea what you're talking about.
*sigh* You misunderstand. I have not said anything about actual inflation being tied to lumber prices in this entire thread. However, it appears Powell is looking to lumber prices as an indicator that overall inflation outlook is overblown. He IS looking at one particular industry (or commodity) to predict this.

I suppose I was not clear in using this as a response. Lumber is not "one good". It is a commodity that affects the price of many goods. Like steel...the price of it affects the price of cars, appliances, buildings, etc. Lumber is used in many different applications so it more than just "one product". It is a commodity that at this moment particularly can show that the current supply/demand situation is not permanent or long-lasting, as is the case for several other sectors and/or commodities.

I have said in several other threads that some level of inflation was expected as we recover from the effects of COVID-19. People stopped building, buying cars, eating out, traveling, etc. so the industries/sectors that were affected had to respond. For instance, rental car companies reduced their fleet capacity because there was no demand. When people started traveling again, the reduced capacity led to shortages of available vehicles.

IOW, I know that whatever inflation we have now is not a permanent thing, it's all due to the unusual circumstances of the reaction to COVID-19.
 

jpn

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Please do point out a single post in here where I said anything about runaway inflation.
Good luck.
(I won't hold my breath)
You're right. You haven't. Sorry.
 
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*sigh* You misunderstand. I have not said anything about actual inflation being tied to lumber prices in this entire thread. However, it appears Powell is looking to lumber prices as an indicator that overall inflation outlook is overblown. He IS looking at one particular industry (or commodity) to predict this.

I suppose I was not clear in using this as a response. Lumber is not "one good". It is a commodity that affects the price of many goods. Like steel...the price of it affects the price of cars, appliances, buildings, etc. Lumber is used in many different applications so it more than just "one product". It is a commodity that at this moment particularly can show that the current supply/demand situation is not permanent or long-lasting, as is the case for several other sectors and/or commodities.

I have said in several other threads that some level of inflation was expected as we recover from the effects of COVID-19. People stopped building, buying cars, eating out, traveling, etc. so the industries/sectors that were affected had to respond. For instance, rental car companies reduced their fleet capacity because there was no demand. When people started traveling again, the reduced capacity led to shortages of available vehicles.

IOW, I know that whatever inflation we have now is not a permanent thing, it's all due to the unusual circumstances of the reaction to COVID-19.
What you're talking about isn't inflation
 
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