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Are We in Danger of Hyperinflation??

danielpalos

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So then you think there's no connection between rising debt and the possibility of hyper inflation and a declining dollar. That's funny.
I would, if we used commodity money and were the only nation experiencing it, much like pre-WWII Germany. They had creditors from emerging economies that added to their problem. All other nations are in the same boat as the US. Pre-WWII Germany was an exception not the rule.
 

danielpalos

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Anyone who teaches that there is not equal protection for blacks today is doing a great disservice to humanity. We will NEVER have equality. that is not a worthwhile goal. Some people will always be at a disadvantage. that is the way of the world. It is what makes men out of boys. Government wants to keep us as boys.
Anyone who believes what you do is merely appealing to ignorance of the law and economics and doing a disservice to those who want to help improve our economy and our Republic as a result.
 

Mircea

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Another display of knowledge deficiency.
Like you.

Your graph shows money supply and personal consumption expenditures, not the prices of goods and services.

Monetary Inflation is more dollars chasing the same or fewer amount of goods.

That devalues the currency. Lest the not-too-bright get terribly confused, the currency is not necessarily devalued against other currencies (although that is possible).

The currency is devalued against goods and services, and the only way to offset the devaluation is to raise prices.

So then you think there's no connection between rising debt and the possibility of hyper inflation and a declining dollar. That's funny.
There isn't, at least not at this point.

Your debt is packaged and sold as treasury bills, notes and bonds. So long as domestic and foreign entities continue to purchase your debt, the over-spending by your government does not become part of the money supply, and that reduces the potential for inflation.

Pre-WWII Germany was in a very different situation. Their economy was in direct control of the state, which mistakenly over-invested in military technology at the expense of the public.
Wrong.

There is no comparison between the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe and the US.

The currencies of the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe were not traded on the global market (and the German Mark was banned from trade at that time); were not used as an international reserve currency; were not used as an international currency of trade; and neither country sold its debt as treasury securities.

Both countries printed excessive amounts of currency which resulted in its local devaluation causing prices to rise astronomically.

Spain, Italy and Romania continually printed their currencies in excess causing massive inflation in their countries and resulted in those countries regularly resetting their currencies. In the case of Romania, the government simply said 32,000 Lei is now worth 32 New Romanian Lei effective at midnight tonight ($1 was equal to 32,000 Lei at that time).

Since Spain and Italy adopted the Euro, they've had tighter fiscal controls and they cannot print more Euros when they feel like, but because both countries are actually 2nd World States with a veneer of 1st Worldism, they've had to borrow heavily.
 

danielpalos

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Monetary Inflation is more dollars chasing the same or fewer amount of goods.
We have had supply economics for decades and we can always goad Capitalists to automate for their bottom line and to help mitigate pandemics.
Many people are spending less, only the Richest have claim to Exceptional spending during current pandemic times.
 

Kushinator

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Your graph shows money supply and personal consumption expenditures, not the prices of goods and services.
:ROFLMAO:

No. the graph i provided explicitly shows the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI). It's a preferred measure of inflation used in conjunction of the Producer Price Index, or the PPI, by the Federal Reserve Bank and its Board of Governors.

Monetary Inflation is more dollars chasing the same or fewer amount of goods.
You're unknowingly leaving out a core aspect of Monetarism. Chasing is velocity, and as you don't know, monetary velocity is at it's historical low:



Now i've already provided this data / refuted this nonsense, but it seems as though i am required to repeat myself because others cannot be bothered to read a thread before barking deluded partisan jabs.

The data necessarily tells us that money is not chasing goods as much as it did, which is a major reason inflation isn't skyrocketing during historically low interest rates, historic monetary creation, and growth in public debt.

That devalues the currency.
We've already addressed inflation using the PCEI. That you're too ignorant to be able to fully comprehend my argument is entirely on you, which is why you fail.
 
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Logophile

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We have had supply economics for decades and we can always goad Capitalists to automate for their bottom line and to help mitigate pandemics.
Many people are spending less, only the Richest have claim to Exceptional spending during current pandemic times.
I am curious as to whether you advocate another round of checks in the near future. Thanks!!
 

Tahuyaman

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It’s inexplicable that some people can’t see that unmanageable debt will lead to hyper inflation and a declining dollar.
 

Kushinator

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It’s inexplicable that some people can’t see that unmanageable debt will lead to hyper inflation and a declining dollar.
You're being rather vague in your predictions.

What constitutes unmanageable?

How long will it take for unmanageable debt to lead to hyperinflation?
 

The Mark

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Where do you get the money from to pay it back when there are no more "rich" people?
What are you talking about, "pay it back"?

This is new money we're digitally creating with the press of a button, we don't need to pay it back.

Well, except that we're giving it to banks so they can loan it to the government, so I guess we might need to pay them back.
 

Paradoxical

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What are you talking about, "pay it back"?

This is new money we're digitally creating with the press of a button, we don't need to pay it back.

Well, except that we're giving it to banks so they can loan it to the government, so I guess we might need to pay them back.
That's great then! I never knew dat! When we're short on our house payment or car payment, we jus call our cogress person thing and tell her to print moe money!! WHY did it take us so long to think of dis?
 

Visbek

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This is important because it's a barometer of a kind, and internationally as well as domestically, people's faith in their system is eroding.
sigh

Loss of confidence doesn't cause inflation, let alone hyperinflation.


And when it becomes acute, people start living defensively, meaning hoarding essentials and limiting nonessential purchases.
That won't cause inflation.

In fact, it will probably cause the exact opposite. If people and businesses dramatically cut back on spending, then that will cause a recession, which will cause DEFLATION. People spend less, businesses make fewer goods and offer fewer services, lenders cut back lending, which causes people to spend less, and so on.

I highly recommend you study actual economics, if you are interested in the subject.
 

The Mark

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That's great then! I never knew dat! When we're short on our house payment or car payment, we jus call our cogress person thing and tell her to print moe money!! WHY did it take us so long to think of dis?
I didn't say it was great.
I said we were doing it.
 

Paradoxical

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I didn't say it was great.
I said we were doing it.
I kno. I kant wate fo my money! I'm gonna tell my friends and could you tell that idiot that I put on ignore that, since he says all this borrowing won't cause hyper inflation and anyone who thinks it does that we need to give away hundreds of trillions of dollars to everyone, and even people in Africa and Iran.
 

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Hyper inflation is not just a possibility......it is an inevitability with America over 25 trillion dollars in debt.
So, when we were just 23 trillion in debt while Trump was the POTUS there was never any talk of hyperinflation, but that extra 3 or 4 trillion is going to push us over the edge?

What a joke.
 

Paradoxical

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So, when we were just 23 trillion in debt while Trump was the POTUS there was never any talk of hyperinflation, but that extra 3 or 4 trillion is going to push us over the edge?

What a joke.
Let's make it a hundred trillion then. Where do you get your nonsense from? You think we can just keep printing money forever? Take an economics 101 class for crying out loud.
 

GolfingChef

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Let's make it a hundred trillion then
You are the one that worships the guy that added more than debt in 4 years than any president in history. Seems a little hollow to hear you people talk about debt now when you all gave Trump a free pass for 4 years.
 

Paradoxical

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You are the one that worships the guy that added more than debt in 4 years than any president in history. Seems a little hollow to hear you people talk about debt now when you all gave Trump a free pass for 4 years.
Now you're changing your tune. Why isn't a hundred trillion worrisome to you? Some idiot here, who I put on ignore because he is an arrogant SOB, says the debt/deficit makes no difference to inflation. that being the case, why not 50 trillion? A hundred trillion. Or as the idiot Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman said, "We can just make a 25 trillion dollar coin.
 

GolfingChef

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Now you're changing your tune. Why isn't a hundred trillion worrisome to you? Some idiot here, who I put on ignore because he is an arrogant SOB, says the debt/deficit makes no difference to inflation. that being the case, why not 50 trillion? A hundred trillion. Or as the idiot Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman said, "We can just make a 25 trillion dollar coin.
I am not changing my tune, I have been bitching about the debt since Reagan was POTUS. All I did was call out your hypocrisy of clutching your pearls now about the debt after spending that last 4 years cheering Trump on as he spent money like drunk sailor on shore leave
 

Paradoxical

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I am not changing my tune, I have been bitching about the debt since Reagan was POTUS. All I did was call out your hypocrisy of clutching your pearls now about the debt after spending that last 4 years cheering Trump on as he spent money like drunk sailor on shore leave
This thread is about hyper inflation and some jerk here is saying that the deficit spending is of no matter. My main beef with Trump was his spending but, he is the ONLY one who can bring in jobs to America through his persuasion and personality. That helped keeping America from going into inflation.

With the fools Biden and Harris and their additional spending and manufacturing jobs leaving due to higher taxes, we are in for a world of hurt very soon.
 

Logophile

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I am not changing my tune, I have been bitching about the debt since Reagan was POTUS. All I did was call out your hypocrisy of clutching your pearls now about the debt after spending that last 4 years cheering Trump on as he spent money like drunk sailor on shore leave
Brace yourself:

Biden to unveil plan to pump $1.5 trillion into pandemic-hit economy
By Jeff Mason, Jarrett Renshaw
4 MIN READ

WILMINGTON, Del. (Reuters) - President-elect Joe Biden will unveil a stimulus package proposal on Thursday designed to jump-start the economy during the coronavirus pandemic with an economic lifeline that could exceed $1.5 trillion and help minority communities.

The stimulus package has a price tag above $1.5 trillion and includes a commitment for $1,400 stimulus checks, according to a source familiar with the proposal, and Biden is expected to commit to partner with private companies to increase the number of Americans getting vaccinated.

A significant portion of the additional financial resources will be dedicated to minority communities. “I think you will see a real emphasis on these underserved communities, where there is a lot of hard work to do,” said another transition official.


Frankly, I don't think our economy can take another shot like this. The global economy is already in trouble. The European Central Bank is considering another stimulus injection but it's going to small. Even the European Union is getting concerned. I believe the pandemic has changed our economic outlook for the foreseeable future and possibly irrevocably, and we need to cognizant of the pitfalls of borrowing so excessively that we can't shoulder our debt. If the US takes a fall, it's even worse for the globe. I've said it before and will say it again, we need to become more insular to be stronger, and therefore offer more security to the free world. We need to bring manufacturing back. That should be the priority. I'm very concerned that this next stimulus round will contain even more pork than the last. I fear the feds are out of control, spending when they really need to examine the situation and take serious stock. Thanks!!
 

Kushinator

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Brace yourself:

Biden to unveil plan to pump $1.5 trillion into pandemic-hit economy
By Jeff Mason, Jarrett Renshaw
4 MIN READ

WILMINGTON, Del. (Reuters) - President-elect Joe Biden will unveil a stimulus package proposal on Thursday designed to jump-start the economy during the coronavirus pandemic with an economic lifeline that could exceed $1.5 trillion and help minority communities.

The stimulus package has a price tag above $1.5 trillion and includes a commitment for $1,400 stimulus checks, according to a source familiar with the proposal, and Biden is expected to commit to partner with private companies to increase the number of Americans getting vaccinated.

A significant portion of the additional financial resources will be dedicated to minority communities. “I think you will see a real emphasis on these underserved communities, where there is a lot of hard work to do,” said another transition official.

Frankly, I don't think our economy can take another shot like this.
Another shot like this is called stimulus, and it will increase aggregate demand.

The European Central Bank is considering another stimulus injection but it's going to small.
Are you confusing fiscal and monetary stimulus?

I believe the pandemic has changed our economic outlook for the foreseeable future and possibly irrevocably, and we need to cognizant of the pitfalls of borrowing so excessively that we can't shoulder our debt.
The pitfall is the exact opposite of what you describe. If we don't borrow more money (at record low interest rates), the economy will under-perform resulting in additional employment and business losses.

I've said it before and will say it again, we need to become more insular to be stronger, and therefore offer more security to the free world.
This is the global economy that we created. Autarkic nonsense aside, leaving a power vacuum under the guise of "take care of yourselves" has never been a fruitful strategy... why do you believe isolation to be necessary?

We need to bring manufacturing back.
Uh huh.....



What you really want to say is, we should revert back from a service based economy to a manufacturing based economy. Bad idea, but would need to be versed in trade theory to really understand why this is the case.

I'm very concerned that this next stimulus round will contain even more pork than the last. I fear the feds are out of control, spending when they really need to examine the situation and take serious stock. Thanks!!
I believe your opinions to be utter garbage... not because you are a horrible person, but because you have not taken the necessary steps to build your knowledge base and formulate an opinion and belief system based on careful examination of the subject matter. Instead, you walk a half-baked opinion out here and honestly expect to be taken seriously....
 

GolfingChef

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Brace yourself:

Biden to unveil plan to pump $1.5 trillion into pandemic-hit economy
By Jeff Mason, Jarrett Renshaw
4 MIN READ

WILMINGTON, Del. (Reuters) - President-elect Joe Biden will unveil a stimulus package proposal on Thursday designed to jump-start the economy during the coronavirus pandemic with an economic lifeline that could exceed $1.5 trillion and help minority communities.

The stimulus package has a price tag above $1.5 trillion and includes a commitment for $1,400 stimulus checks, according to a source familiar with the proposal, and Biden is expected to commit to partner with private companies to increase the number of Americans getting vaccinated.

A significant portion of the additional financial resources will be dedicated to minority communities. “I think you will see a real emphasis on these underserved communities, where there is a lot of hard work to do,” said another transition official.


Frankly, I don't think our economy can take another shot like this. The global economy is already in trouble. The European Central Bank is considering another stimulus injection but it's going to small. Even the European Union is getting concerned. I believe the pandemic has changed our economic outlook for the foreseeable future and possibly irrevocably, and we need to cognizant of the pitfalls of borrowing so excessively that we can't shoulder our debt. If the US takes a fall, it's even worse for the globe. I've said it before and will say it again, we need to become more insular to be stronger, and therefore offer more security to the free world. We need to bring manufacturing back. That should be the priority. I'm very concerned that this next stimulus round will contain even more pork than the last. I fear the feds are out of control, spending when they really need to examine the situation and take serious stock. Thanks!!
I do not disagree, this is what pisses me off so much about the past few years. We had a booming economy, some would say a record setting economy, and instead of at least decreasing the deficit, let alone pay off some of the debt, we just kept adding even higher levels of debt....now we are ****ed.
 

Logophile

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Are you confusing fiscal and monetary stimulus?


The pitfall is the exact opposite of what you describe. If we don't borrow more money (at record low interest rates), the economy will under-perform resulting in additional employment and business losses.


This is the global economy that we created. Autarkic nonsense aside, leaving a power vacuum under the guise of "take care of yourselves" has never been a fruitful strategy... why do you believe isolation to be necessary?

What you really want to say is, we should revert back from a service based economy to a manufacturing based economy. Bad idea, but would need to be versed in trade theory to really understand why this is the case.

I believe your opinions to be utter garbage... not because you are a horrible person, but because you have not taken the necessary steps to build your knowledge base and formulate an opinion and belief system based on careful examination of the subject matter. Instead, you walk a half-baked opinion out here and honestly expect to be taken seriously....
We'll see how half baked it is and exactly whose opinions are utter garbage. Give it about six months. A manufacturing base was when America was at its strongest. Cheap foreign labor may have its immediate benefits as in cheap foreign products, but it does not bode well for any nation to unnaturally rely on imports. It's not rocket science. It's common sense:

In the short-run, a current account deficit is helpful to the borrowing nation. Foreigners are willing to pump capital into it. That drives economic growth beyond what the country could manage on its own.
In the long run, a current account deficit saps economic vitality. Domestic businesses don't develop because the market is dominated by foreign competition. Many domestic companies outsource jobs because it's cheaper for them.
Foreign investors may start to question whether the country's economic growth will provide enough return on their investment. Demand weakens for the country's assets, including the country's government bonds.
As foreign investors withdraw funds, bond yields rise. The national currency loses value relative to other currencies. That lowers the value of the assets in the foreign investors' strengthening currency. It further depresses investor demand for the country's assets. This can lead to a tipping point where investors will dump the assets at any price.
The only saving grace is that the country's holdings of foreign assets are denominated in foreign currency. As the value of its currency declines, the value of the foreign assets rise. That further reduces the current account deficit.
In addition, a lower currency value increases exports as they become more competitively priced. The demand for imports falls once prices rise as inflation sets in. These trends stabilize any current account deficit.
Regardless of whether the current account deficit unwound via a disastrous currency crash or a slow, controlled decline, the consequences would be the same. That's a lower standard of living for the country's residents.

How to Correct a Current Account Deficit
A country with a current account deficit should invest the foreign capital it receives wisely. It should build roads and ports, and educate its workforce, to boost international trade.


The country's leaders should create a current account surplus as soon as possible. They should improve domestic productivity and the competitiveness of its local businesses. It should also seek to reduce imports of basic necessities, such as oil and food, by boosting that ability at home. https://www.thebalance.com/current-account-deficit-definition-components-and-causes-3305831

And I wish you would refrain from the insults. I don't find it productive, as it has the effect of not wanting to learn from you. Thanks!!
 

Kushinator

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I do not disagree, this is what pisses me off so much about the past few years. We had a booming economy, some would say a record setting economy, and instead of at least decreasing the deficit, let alone pay off some of the debt, we just kept adding even higher levels of debt....now we are ****ed.
Nah... The risk is always undershooting. In reality, we need something like $10+ trillion in fiscal stimulus to circumvent this current crisis. We're about half-way there.
 
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