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Historically, the midterm elections usually favor the party that doesn't have the White House. In particular, the party that holds it usually gets hit pretty hard in the 6th-year elections:
1918: Woodrow Wilson's Democrats lost both houses.
1938: Franklin Roosevelt's Democrats suffered huge losses, bigger than any they've had since. It ended up not mattering, since they'd already run up gigantic majorities in 1930, '32, '34 (that, in itself, bucking the 2nd-year tradition) and '36. Considering FDR's 3rd term in 1940 a start-over, and...
1946: The 6th year of the FDR/Harry Truman Administration, and the Democrats lost both houses. Since Truman ended up getting what amounted to 2 full terms, restart the clock at 1945, and, after Truman carried both houses back in '48...
1950: Truman's Democrats didn't lose either house, but took some big losses. The numbers weren't as significant as some of the names (Claude Pepper, Millard Tydings, Helen Gahagan Douglas). The Republicans took both houses in '52, lost them in '54, didn't gain enough back in '56, and...
1958: Dwight D. Eisenhower's Republicans got pounded, worse than any loss they've had since. It didn't matter much, as they already didn't have control.
1966: The 6th year of the John F. Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson Administration, and the Democrats lost big-time, although the huge majorities LBJ built up in '64 prevented a loss of control.
1974: The 6th year of the Richard Nixon/Gerald Ford Administration, and the GOP, already not having control, got clobbered. The Democrats elected that year became known as the Watergate Babies. They were mostly young guys, like Gary Hart; now, there's only 2 left in the House, both from California: George Miller and Henry Waxman; and 1 in the Senate, Patrick Leahy of Vermont.
1986: Ronald Reagan's Republicans lost control of the Senate (a lot of the guys he swept into office in '80 got found out and beat), and lost what amounted to a "working majority" in the House. Although Bill Clinton's Democrats lost both houses in '94, they actually gained in '98.
2006: George W. Bush's Republicans lost both houses. Bush called it "a thumpin'." (Not to be confused with 2010, which Obama called "a shellacking," although his Democrats retained the Senate.)
Aside from 1998, "sixth years" have been bad for the incumbent President's party. But, a little more than a year away from the 2014 elections, it's not looking good. The Democrats need a gain of 17 seats to take the House. In the Senate, they hold an edge of 4 seats.
The only Democratic incumbent who might be in trouble is Mark Begich of Alaska, and that's mainly because that State is so unpredictable. Four seats of retiring Democrats are in play. Tom Harkin of Iowa will, most likely, see his seat kept blue; but the Montana seat of Max Baucus, the South Dakota seat of Tim Johnson, and the West Virginia seat of Jay Rockefeller all have a better than 50-50 chance of turning red.
For the moment, there is, ironically, only one Republican Senator who's in trouble right now: Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the GOP Leader. He could lose. But most of the Republicans running for re-election are safe, unless they face a Tea Party primary challenge, in which case some of those seats are up for grabs: The Georgia seat of retiring Saxby Chambliss, Susan Collins of Maine, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and John Cornyn of Texas (ditto).
There is a possibility that Collins, especially if she gets beaten for the nomination by an ally of Teabag Governor Paul LePage (who is almost certainly toast), could do what Angus King did to get elected that State's Governor and now one of its Senators: Run as an independent. I think she would win. But if she wins the nomination, especially if there's a fight, and the Teabags don't support her enough, and there's enough of a backlash against the GOP, she could lose in November.
So the GOP will likely take the seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. That gives them 49 seats. But they would then have to hold all the seats they have now, and that's not a given. If McConnell loses, and the Teabags claim even one primary scalp that leads to a Democratic gain in November, that drops them to 47, and even if they take Begich's and Harkin's seat, that's 49, and they'd still need 2 more. Maybe Mary Landrieu, in spite of her family's strong history in Louisiana, could be vulnerable, maybe not; but in next-door Arkansas, Mark Pryor is as popular as his father David (former Governor and Senator) was, and I don't think he'd lose.
Right now, the GOP needs 2 things to happen: Get this shutdown settled (even though it won't be in their favor), and hope that the voters have decided by November 2014 that, whatever else happens in the intervening year, their current anger is no longer worth keeping.
Polls: Shutdown Hurts '14 Gop Prospects
1918: Woodrow Wilson's Democrats lost both houses.
1938: Franklin Roosevelt's Democrats suffered huge losses, bigger than any they've had since. It ended up not mattering, since they'd already run up gigantic majorities in 1930, '32, '34 (that, in itself, bucking the 2nd-year tradition) and '36. Considering FDR's 3rd term in 1940 a start-over, and...
1946: The 6th year of the FDR/Harry Truman Administration, and the Democrats lost both houses. Since Truman ended up getting what amounted to 2 full terms, restart the clock at 1945, and, after Truman carried both houses back in '48...
1950: Truman's Democrats didn't lose either house, but took some big losses. The numbers weren't as significant as some of the names (Claude Pepper, Millard Tydings, Helen Gahagan Douglas). The Republicans took both houses in '52, lost them in '54, didn't gain enough back in '56, and...
1958: Dwight D. Eisenhower's Republicans got pounded, worse than any loss they've had since. It didn't matter much, as they already didn't have control.
1966: The 6th year of the John F. Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson Administration, and the Democrats lost big-time, although the huge majorities LBJ built up in '64 prevented a loss of control.
1974: The 6th year of the Richard Nixon/Gerald Ford Administration, and the GOP, already not having control, got clobbered. The Democrats elected that year became known as the Watergate Babies. They were mostly young guys, like Gary Hart; now, there's only 2 left in the House, both from California: George Miller and Henry Waxman; and 1 in the Senate, Patrick Leahy of Vermont.
1986: Ronald Reagan's Republicans lost control of the Senate (a lot of the guys he swept into office in '80 got found out and beat), and lost what amounted to a "working majority" in the House. Although Bill Clinton's Democrats lost both houses in '94, they actually gained in '98.
2006: George W. Bush's Republicans lost both houses. Bush called it "a thumpin'." (Not to be confused with 2010, which Obama called "a shellacking," although his Democrats retained the Senate.)
Aside from 1998, "sixth years" have been bad for the incumbent President's party. But, a little more than a year away from the 2014 elections, it's not looking good. The Democrats need a gain of 17 seats to take the House. In the Senate, they hold an edge of 4 seats.
The only Democratic incumbent who might be in trouble is Mark Begich of Alaska, and that's mainly because that State is so unpredictable. Four seats of retiring Democrats are in play. Tom Harkin of Iowa will, most likely, see his seat kept blue; but the Montana seat of Max Baucus, the South Dakota seat of Tim Johnson, and the West Virginia seat of Jay Rockefeller all have a better than 50-50 chance of turning red.
For the moment, there is, ironically, only one Republican Senator who's in trouble right now: Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the GOP Leader. He could lose. But most of the Republicans running for re-election are safe, unless they face a Tea Party primary challenge, in which case some of those seats are up for grabs: The Georgia seat of retiring Saxby Chambliss, Susan Collins of Maine, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and John Cornyn of Texas (ditto).
There is a possibility that Collins, especially if she gets beaten for the nomination by an ally of Teabag Governor Paul LePage (who is almost certainly toast), could do what Angus King did to get elected that State's Governor and now one of its Senators: Run as an independent. I think she would win. But if she wins the nomination, especially if there's a fight, and the Teabags don't support her enough, and there's enough of a backlash against the GOP, she could lose in November.
So the GOP will likely take the seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. That gives them 49 seats. But they would then have to hold all the seats they have now, and that's not a given. If McConnell loses, and the Teabags claim even one primary scalp that leads to a Democratic gain in November, that drops them to 47, and even if they take Begich's and Harkin's seat, that's 49, and they'd still need 2 more. Maybe Mary Landrieu, in spite of her family's strong history in Louisiana, could be vulnerable, maybe not; but in next-door Arkansas, Mark Pryor is as popular as his father David (former Governor and Senator) was, and I don't think he'd lose.
Right now, the GOP needs 2 things to happen: Get this shutdown settled (even though it won't be in their favor), and hope that the voters have decided by November 2014 that, whatever else happens in the intervening year, their current anger is no longer worth keeping.
Polls: Shutdown Hurts '14 Gop Prospects