Are polls showing overall GOP losses skewed by the south?

[Groucho]

A new NBC / Wall Street Journal poll shows that while democratic party is hugely disliked in the South, this is not the case in the rest of the country, where Democrats lead.

First Read - First thoughts: Jet Blue Nation

"The GOP has a HUGE generic-ballot edge in the South (52%-31%), but it doesn't lead anywhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it's 44%-43%."

However, there is plenty of bad news for Democrats too (and mostly incumbents):

"60% believe the current Congress is either below average or among the worst, an all-time high in the survey; the percentage viewing the GOP favorably (24%-46% fav/unfav) is at an all-time low; the numbers for the Democratic Party aren’t much better (33%-44%, and the "very negative" for the Dems matches an all-time high); nearly six in 10 say the country is headed in the wrong direction; and 64% think the U.S. economy hasn’t yet hit rock bottom"

So I guess the question is whether this will change anyone's minds about GOP chances in the fall. If they win in the south (where they always do anyway) and lose everywhere else, then there won't be much gains at all...

 

[WingsOfDesire]

Well, I would point out that excluding the Northeast and South, the other two regions don't reach a strong 50%+ threshold, so there's really plenty of time before these become more filled out. Most pollsters will acknowledge that yeah, they may indicate where it's headed, but there's no certainty there.

Aside from that though, the main area of focus is from Mizzou to PA. In particular (but also applying to the whole nation), Democrats that enjoyed first-term victories in 2006 and 2008 are now in the hot seat. Turnout definitely isn't going to be as much in favor for Dems as it was in 2008 compared to Republicans (relatively speaking, obviously this is a midterm year), so they better start adopting a good platform. Or they could just hope Republicans shoot themselves in the foot, which might be hard to do even though they're lead by fools at the moment.

CQPolitics and RealClearPolitics have some great charts showing those leans/tossups/etc, the area I was talking about sort of goes across a few of em, so it's hard to say if the article in question will correctly apply.

 

[danarhea]

A new NBC / Wall Street Journal poll shows that while democratic party is hugely disliked in the South, this is not the case in the rest of the country, where Democrats lead.

First Read - First thoughts: Jet Blue Nation

"The GOP has a HUGE generic-ballot edge in the South (52%-31%), but it doesn't lead anywhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it's 44%-43%."

However, there is plenty of bad news for Democrats too (and mostly incumbents):

"60% believe the current Congress is either below average or among the worst, an all-time high in the survey; the percentage viewing the GOP favorably (24%-46% fav/unfav) is at an all-time low; the numbers for the Democratic Party aren’t much better (33%-44%, and the "very negative" for the Dems matches an all-time high); nearly six in 10 say the country is headed in the wrong direction; and 64% think the U.S. economy hasn’t yet hit rock bottom"

So I guess the question is whether this will change anyone's minds about GOP chances in the fall. If they win in the south (where they always do anyway) and lose everywhere else, then there won't be much gains at all...

This election is not going to be so much about how bad the GOP is, but how bad those in power are. And face it, Democrats are the ones in power and not delivering. That definitely makes the Democrats the bad guys this time around.

 

[Redress]

This election is not going to be so much about how bad the GOP is, but how bad those in power are. And face it, Democrats are the ones in power and not delivering. That definitely makes the Democrats the bad guys this time around.

There is some truth to this, but it kinda misses what Groucho is saying. The generic polls show republicans in the lead, but if you break that down by region, you discover that the huge lead republican have in the south is weighing down small democratic leads elsewhere. It shows the problem with generic polling for predicting local election results. Of course, his link is still to generic polling, just on smaller areas.

The only polling to really trust for congressional elections is polling of the congressional districts themselves. With the shear quantity of districts, I have not spent alot of time studying it, but from the little I have put into it, I think we are going to get some republican gains in house and senate, but not enough for republicans to gain either house. The reality is, with the economy like it is, Democrats not losing either house would be a huge victory for us.

 

[RightinNYC]

There are a lot of Democrat seats in the South for the Republicans to win. There's not a single Republican seat in New England for the Dems to win.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Congressional_Districts,_party_colors.svg

 

[Dav]

There are a lot of Democrat seats in the South for the Republicans to win. There's not a single Republican seat in New England for the Dems to win.

Exactly. If the GOP wins one seat in Massachussetts, and one or two in New Hampshire - both of which are plausible right now - and the Democrats win every other seat in New England, it will still be a net gain for Republicans.

From what I've seen, there are vulnerable Democrats pretty much everywhere right now. Not to say that all Democrats are vulnerable, just that it's more spread out than South vs. everywhere else.

 

[Harshaw]

There are a lot of Democrat seats in the South for the Republicans to win. There's not a single Republican seat in New England for the Dems to win.

File:US Congressional Districts, party colors.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Some of those are some nice Gulf Coast districts, too.

 

[Redress]

Does any one know a good source for district by district polling? Preferably one with a nice summary kinda thing.

 

[Dav]

Does any one know a good source for district by district polling? Preferably one with a nice summary kinda thing.

RealClearPolitics is great for that kind of thing.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 House Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

Most individual districts don't get polled, or at least haven't yet.

 

[samsmart]

This election is not going to be so much about how bad the GOP is, but how bad those in power are. And face it, Democrats are the ones in power and not delivering. That definitely makes the Democrats the bad guys this time around.

But the GOP aren't really doing anything themselves. All they are saying is "Look at how the Democrats are ****ing up!" and trying to filibuster legislation. That may get other voters to cast their ballot for the GOP but it doesn't make me want to. Just because I don't like what the Democrats will do doesn't mean I will like what the GOP will do.

Damn two-party system...

 

[Redress]

RealClearPolitics is great for that kind of thing.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 House Polls

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Battle for the House

Most individual districts don't get polled, or at least haven't yet.

That second one is more what I was looking for. Based on that, the House is in real jeopardy for Dems, with while the senate is pretty safe(repubs would need 7 of 9 tossups to get to 50).

 

[Dav]

That second one is more what I was looking for. Based on that, the House is in real jeopardy for Dems, with while the senate is pretty safe(repubs would need 7 of 9 tossups to get to 50).

Nate Silver has probably the best Senate forecast model.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls

He's really taking his time on the House forecast model though.

 

[Redress]

Nate Silver has probably the best Senate forecast model.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls

He's really taking his time on the House forecast model though.

I remember that one. .5 Charlie Crists!

 

[FilmFestGuy]

But the GOP aren't really doing anything themselves. All they are saying is "Look at how the Democrats are ****ing up!" and trying to filibuster legislation. That may get other voters to cast their ballot for the GOP but it doesn't make me want to. Just because I don't like what the Democrats will do doesn't mean I will like what the GOP will do.

Damn two-party system...

Exactly.

I wish the Tea Party hadn't so identified with Republicans.

If the movement would literally be an agreement across both parties to throw everyone out. If you live in a largely Republican district, it just means you have to hold your nose and vote for the Democrat. And vice-versa.

Then, from here on out, legislators would damn well know that they are not appointed for life to their seat.

It's the only way to truly wake the parties up.

 

[danarhea]

But the GOP aren't really doing anything themselves. All they are saying is "Look at how the Democrats are ****ing up!" and trying to filibuster legislation. That may get other voters to cast their ballot for the GOP but it doesn't make me want to. Just because I don't like what the Democrats will do doesn't mean I will like what the GOP will do.

Damn two-party system...

But that's my point. The Dems are the ones in power now, so they are the ones who are going to take the hit from the disgruntled voters. The Republicans don't have to have a plan. The Democrats are not executing theirs, and that's good enough for Republican gains.

 

[Morality Games]

But that's my point. The Dems are the ones in power now, so they are the ones who are going to take the hit from the disgruntled voters. The Republicans don't have to have a plan. The Democrats are not executing theirs, and that's good enough for Republican gains.

The Republicans haven't gotten enough good press in the last two years to convince moderates they are any different than when Bush left office. In that context, discontent with Democrats is more likely to translate into voter apathy than voter turnover -- both independents and the Democratic base are set to be pretty subdued this election. That's good for Republicans, since their base isn't apathetic, but they will still be lucky to take back the House.

 

[Groucho]

The Republicans haven't gotten enough good press in the last two years to convince moderates they are any different than when Bush left office. In that context, discontent with Democrats is more likely to translate into voter apathy than voter turnover -- both independents and the Democratic base are set to be pretty subdued this election. That's good for Republicans, since their base isn't apathetic, but they will still be lucky to take back the House.

I agree.

It is normal in midterms for the party in power to lose seats; we all expect that. The key is that the GOP has not presented, to many Americans, a reasonable alternative. The support for the GOP is still lower than it is for democrats, after all, and with many tea party people winning primaries (against GOP wishes, you note) moderates will either not vote or stay with the Democrats.

So that's why I predict GOP gains but not as much as many are thinking.

 

[washunut]

The Republicans haven't gotten enough good press in the last two years to convince moderates they are any different than when Bush left office. In that context, discontent with Democrats is more likely to translate into voter apathy than voter turnover -- both independents and the Democratic base are set to be pretty subdued this election. That's good for Republicans, since their base isn't apathetic, but they will still be lucky to take back the House.

A key that many are not looking at is wht happens in govenor and state legislature races. These people get to gerimander the districts to make it easier for one party to win extra house seats.

An axiom is that races do not reallt get under way until labor day. There is still a lot of time for some unknown event to change everything around.