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Are ‘shy Trump supporters’ skewing polls again?

TU Curmudgeon

TU Curmudgeon

B.A. (Sarc), LLb. (Lex Sarcasus), PhD (Sarc.)
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From The Christian Science Monitor

Are ‘shy Trump supporters’ skewing polls again?
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Dear (R)eader:

Polls are catnip for political reporters, and I am no exception. This year, however, I’ve been paying less attention to the presidential “horse race" than I might otherwise, in part because of the problems with polling four years ago that pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory. It’s also such an unusual year, given the coronavirus, tough economy, and upheaval over police and race. Besides, November is still light years away, politically speaking.

But several headlines this week caught my eye. “We’re thinking landslide,” began one in Politico. The “we” in that story, more than 50 Republican officials interviewed from around the country, were looking beyond the immediate gloomy picture for President Donald Trump, and seeing unreliable polls, a rebounding economy, and a fading pandemic.

“We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump,’” said a Republican official in North Carolina. “Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.”

The Washington Examiner buttressed the Politico story with a recent comment by veteran GOP pollster Neil Newhouse.

COMMENT:-

Electoral Vote has a discussion on this point that some might find interesting. As of posting, it's located at "Will the 2020 Polls Be Deja Vu All over Again? " but after today, you will have to scroll to the 22 JUN 20 page and then click down to it. (I THINK that the link after today will be THIS ONE, but I can't guarantee it.)
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One of the biggest group of Trump supporters are white people who fear minorities.

Nobody is going to admit they're that racist in public. And the riots just helped make these people even more afraid of minorities.


It's going to be a closer race than many people think.
 
I confess I lied to a pollster.

I said I would vote for Joe.

:usflag2:
 
swing_voter said:
One of the biggest group of Trump supporters are white people who fear minorities.

Nobody is going to admit they're that racist in public. And the riots just helped make these people even more afraid of minorities.


It's going to be a closer race than many people think.
Click to expand...

Yep, well, either that of an absolute wipe out.
 
The polls that pointed to Hillary were correct. She won the popular vote. The polls were not meant to predict the electoral college, they were meant to predict the vote.

So I think it's time we began dismissing the Trumper bs about the polls being wrong.
 
These voters were always there, and several groups of “conservatives” were never in play to flip to Biden or whoever else. The question is the unaffiliated independent voter that does not think very much of the various liberal factions.

Hillary being an awful candidate taught Democrats and the liberal media a painful lesson about polling. They are generally skewed anyway, this not very reliable.

I still suspect Trump’s biggest challenge for 2020 is not Biden or a symbolic VP vote choice, it is his own governance track record across a perfect storm of issues in the past year alone. Polls of independents with leans noted might give us some insight but 2016 should have taught us all that key districts are up for debate, some of which were ones Hillary took for granted.
 
ecofarm said:
The polls that pointed to Hillary were correct. She won the popular vote. The polls were not meant to predict the electoral college, they were meant to predict the vote.

So I think it's time we began dismissing the Trumper bs about the polls being wrong.
Click to expand...

Oh, so like the 10 point lead she had in PA, the 6 point lead she had in WI, or the 3 point lead she had in OH, and FL, you mean those polls? Baloney! Most pollsters had hitlery leading by significant margins in all the swing states, and even had her winning slightly in some red states.. Give me a break with your pollster lead narrative that they got the popular vote lead correct..

Tim-
 
Hicup said:
Oh, so like the 10 point lead she had in PA, the 6 point lead she had in WI, or the 3 point lead she had in OH, and FL, you mean those polls? Baloney! Most pollsters had hitlery leading by significant margins in all the swing states, and even had her winning slightly in some red states.. Give me a break with your pollster lead narrative that they got the popular vote lead correct..

Tim-
Click to expand...

Polls predict the popular vote, not the electoral college. You didn't know that?
 
ecofarm said:
Polls predict the popular vote, not the electoral college. You didn't know that?
Click to expand...

Are you being intentionally obtuse? I haven't been on this site in over 3 months and I come back, and it's the same tired old players..

Tim-
 
Hicup said:
Are you being intentionally obtuse? I haven't been on this site in over 3 months and I come back, and it's the same tired old players..

Tim-
Click to expand...

Who says I'm old?
 
The LAST thing any sane person wants is to have some leftie believe that they are a Trump supporter. It doesn’t even matter why someone would support Trump over a Democrat. The left has proved that they are willing to destroy the businesses, livelihoods and very lives of Trump supporters. To that end, and because you never really know who is on the other end of the phone line, the safe thing to do is either refuse to answer or lie.
 
swing_voter said:
One of the biggest group of Trump supporters are white people who fear minorities.

Nobody is going to admit they're that racist in public. And the riots just helped make these people even more afraid of minorities.


It's going to be a closer race than many people think.
Click to expand...



That's because there are many more racists than people think and more racists than the racists think there are, including thinking themselves racist.

Aye, there's the rub.
 
The "shy trump supporter" suggestion is one of the most desperate and pathetic theories out there.
 
swing_voter said:
One of the biggest group of Trump supporters are white people who fear minorities.

Nobody is going to admit they're that racist in public. And the riots just helped make these people even more afraid of minorities.


It's going to be a closer race than many people think.
Click to expand...
Yep. Agreed.

In addition, they've been told anything establishment is 'fake' - which they believe.

I believe this effect caused part of the 1-1/2 pt discrepancy in the 2016 polls.
 
SkyChief said:
I confess I lied to a pollster.

I said I would vote for Joe.

:usflag2:
Click to expand...


Just to let you know...you made a mistake... flying the wrong flag for you...the russian flag is more to your liking....huh
 
ecofarm said:
The polls that pointed to Hillary were correct. She won the popular vote. The polls were not meant to predict the electoral college, they were meant to predict the vote.

So I think it's time we began dismissing the Trumper bs about the polls being wrong.
Click to expand...

Not even close but nice try. First off, EVERY major polling institution was calling a victory for Clinton with margins as high as 88% she would WIN the election.

You need look no further than the

Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election

Which clearly shows in October and November HUNDREDS of media outlets and polling institutions had Clinton winning in all but 2 states. Only Fox Predicted Trump would win the election and you can see it for yourself. Sorry, you can't bury the ACTUAL predictions for your made up scenario.

Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

On top of which, Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.5 million. She won California over Trump by over 6 million votes. With only a total spread of 2.5 million, that would mean Trump won the total popular vote of the other 49 states combined. Hillary needed 6 million more votes just to get to the 2.5 million spread. Thats basic math but I am sure it eludes most on the left.
 
:lol:
 
2016 was a shock to some, but I can see 2020 being a BIGGER shock yet again. Many of the people I know are SHOCKED at the way that these Democratic mayors and governors have abdicated their responsibility to keep basic law and order in their states. Not only white voters, but many of my Hispanic friends are sick of what is happening. Many of the Hispanic voters come from counties that barely work and are afraid that America could be that bad soon.
 
Cardinal said:
The "shy trump supporter" suggestion is one of the most desperate and pathetic theories out there.
Click to expand...

Don't be surprised if there are some "shy trump supporters" (and quite a few of them at that) out there.

In BC, for almost 30 years, we had the "30 second Socred" phenomenon where the polling (both pre-election polling and exit polling) almost always under reported the electoral strength of the governing party. People simply didn't want to admit that they voted for a particular political party, and so they didn't admit doing what they actually did (or were going to do).
 
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