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Anyone checked the betting odds lately?!?! The money is going to Trump.

Eddiehaskell

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Currently this is where the 6 casinos or whatever listed on RCP have it:

Biden/Trump

50/48
50/50
50/50
51/51
48/47
52/52

There’s basically ONE of SIX that have Biden with the slightest of leads (2%).

I guess the betting market is saying that at this second it is literally a coin toss.

This is amazing considering Trump was down to like 30-35% very recently.

Momentum is a real thing and Trump has it in spades.
 
Whats the matter, even Rasmussen letting you guys down lately. So now out of desperation you go to betting lines? Geezus you guys are desperate.
 
Whats the matter, even Rasmussen letting you guys down lately. So now out of desperation you go to betting lines? Geezus you guys are desperate.

Rasmeussens last general election poll released had trump 1 point behind biden in the general so I do not think they were letting anyone down but biden supporters.
 
Rasmeussens last general election poll released had trump 1 point behind biden in the general so I do not think they were letting anyone down but biden supporters.

So what....if you really had the polling data going your way, you would not be going to a betting line to find comfort.
 
So what....if you really had the polling data going your way, you would not be going to a betting line to find comfort.

I don't know the betting line says people are losing faith fast in biden, if the trend keeps up like it has since the rnc convention, biden might be in serious trouble, think about that.

Or should I say quit gloating and get to voting, unless you want your guy to be the guaranteed winner who lost by a landslide because everyone convinced themselves the polls they wanted to see said their guy would win, and gloated instead of voted. Either way trumps prospects for winning have been doing good lately while biden is falling.
 
Rasmeussens last general election poll released had trump 1 point behind biden in the general so I do not think they were letting anyone down but biden supporters.

1. State polls are what matter and they are tightening
2. We don’t have state polls completely post convention
3. Minnesota is now in play
4. We know Trump can lose the popular vote by ~3% and win
5. Trump is on offense clubbing dems over violence in cities
6. The betting odds have swung to a coin flip.

Trump is in the drivers seat now. His election to lose.
 
Odds today have Trump and Biden tied in 5 of 6 betting places. Biden is up 1% in one of them.

Trump continues moving forward.
 
What are the odds on the Russian betting sites?
 
Russia is a country that only lives in the minds of democrats watching the election slip away....again.

No, it's definitely a real country, as I'm sure you know. Is it possible for election interference professionals to bet their potato rations on the election?
 
Betting odds are a reflection of approval of polling and the latest news stories. News stories are bad indicators of what will move the polls because it often contains sensationalism or narratives that don't reflect what's actually important to people. The latest news cycle is a perfect example of this: the news is filled with civil unrest and crime, yet in a Gallup poll 4% of respondents said that crime was the most important concern, behind race relations (10%), economic problems (12%), poor government leadership (22%), and the coronavirus 35%.

Most Important Problem | Gallup Historical Trends
 
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Betting odds are a reflection of approval of polling and the latest news stories. News stories are bad indicators of what will move the polls because it often contains sensationalism or narratives that don't reflect what's actually important to people. The latest news cycle is a perfect example of this: the news is filled with civil unrest and crime, yet in a Gallup poll 4% of respondents said that crime was the most important concern, race relations (10%), economic problems (12%), poor government leadership (22%), and the coronavirus 35%.

Most Important Problem | Gallup Historical Trends
The thing is — the news cycle and narratives driven by the media DO become what people care about. Violence, destruction and rioting aren’t typical news stories that go away (tax returns for example). Now that we see it moves the polls, Trump will keep beating democrats over the head with it until Election Day. And the rioters continually make it fresh news with their actions.
 
The thing is — the news cycle and narratives driven by the media DO become what people care about. Violence, destruction and rioting aren’t typical news stories that go away (tax returns for example). Now that we see it moves the polls, Trump will keep beating democrats over the head with it until Election Day. And the rioters continually make it fresh news with their actions.

The news cycle certainly affects what we talk about (obviously), but ultimately it doesn't change what's important to us right now. If you're out of work and facing eviction, sure, you'll have a conversation with someone in the unemployment line about right wing extremists going to Democrat cities to start fights...but you're still standing in an unemployment line, and you're still trying not to get sick and die.
 
The news cycle certainly affects what we talk about (obviously), but ultimately it doesn't change what's important to us right now. If you're out of work and facing eviction, sure, you'll have a conversation with someone in the unemployment line about right wing extremists going to Democrat cities to start fights...but you're still standing in an unemployment line, and you're still trying not to get sick and die.
I disagree because media involvement to a large extent impacts EVERYTHING people care about. COVID and it’s side effects for example are largely driven by media hysteria.

And when people see images of fights, intimidation (scared to live or visit cities), bullying, riots, fires, murders, assaults, looting, etc, that hits to the absolute core of what people care about — their immediate safety.

There’s no issue that ranks above that...not rent, not taxes, not borders...nothing.
 
I disagree because media involvement to a large extent impacts EVERYTHING people care about. COVID and it’s side effects for example are largely driven by media hysteria.

And when people see images of fights, intimidation (scared to live or visit cities), bullying, riots, fires, murders, assaults, looting, etc, that hits to the absolute core of what people care about — their immediate safety.

There’s no issue that ranks above that...not rent, not taxes, not borders...nothing.

The media thrive on sensationalism. You know this, and whatever political bias any particular medium displays is likely to show up in how they choose to portray any specific incident. If you're a conservative you'll be watching Fox and consuming whatever they're telling you to believe, for example.
The Covid-19 global pandemic is real, deadly and has killed approaching 200,000 Americans, so far. No hysteria, just facts.
 
Latest PA poll has Trump and Biden in a statistical tie (+3% Biden).

Another data point showing Trump with tremendous momentum only 2 months out from Election Day.

This man simply can’t be beat easily — even with the world and all it’s money against him.

It’s been a 4-5 year dog fight with Trump disposing of all challengers in every party...remember when he was on stage with like 15 other politicians?
 
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I disagree because media involvement to a large extent impacts EVERYTHING people care about. COVID and it’s side effects for example are largely driven by media hysteria.

And when people see images of fights, intimidation (scared to live or visit cities), bullying, riots, fires, murders, assaults, looting, etc, that hits to the absolute core of what people care about — their immediate safety.

There’s no issue that ranks above that...not rent, not taxes, not borders...nothing.

If you think that then you have no real problems of your own, and if you have no real problems of your own then you're not sharing in the American experience right now. You're an observer from afar.
 
1. State polls are what matter and they are tightening
2. We don’t have state polls completely post convention
3. Minnesota is now in play
4. We know Trump can lose the popular vote by ~3% and win
5. Trump is on offense clubbing dems over violence in cities
6. The betting odds have swung to a coin flip.

Trump is in the drivers seat now. His election to lose.

State polls always suck, guaging them is hard and state polls can easily be double digits off the mark, which is made worse by the often lack of polling on the state level. Ohio for example has been very lazily polls, yet it is one of the biggest battleground states, outside usc/dornsife and morning consult which rcp refuses to list( can't blame them their poll spamming and their numbers almost always being the same across months of polling looks blatently suspicious) ohio has had very few polls. In 2016 michigan wisconsin pa etc had very few polls, even when trump showed he had a chance polling companies did little in those states.


I can never understand why pollsters seem determined to focus on general election polls or states they hope can be flipped but pay little attention to the big prizes that will determine the election.
 
Currently this is where the 6 casinos or whatever listed on RCP have it:

Biden/Trump

50/48
50/50
50/50
51/51
48/47
52/52

There’s basically ONE of SIX that have Biden with the slightest of leads (2%).

I guess the betting market is saying that at this second it is literally a coin toss.

This is amazing considering Trump was down to like 30-35% very recently.

Momentum is a real thing and Trump has it in spades.

Sure it does

With just one week to go, at offshore sportsbooks and at shops in the betting-mad United Kingdom, Clinton remains a substantial favorite, with odds hovering around -300 – meaning one must bet $300 to win $100. Meanwhile, Trump is in the range of a +275 underdog – meaning a $100 bet could bring in $275

What are the odds of Trump, Clinton winning the 2016 presidential election?
 
Currently this is where the 6 casinos or whatever listed on RCP have it:

Biden/Trump

50/48
50/50
50/50
51/51
48/47
52/52

There’s basically ONE of SIX that have Biden with the slightest of leads (2%).

I guess the betting market is saying that at this second it is literally a coin toss.

This is amazing considering Trump was down to like 30-35% very recently.

Momentum is a real thing and Trump has it in spades.

Gamblers are always looking for the long shot and that is why they lose so much. Why don't you bet you house on Trump? :lol:
 
Whats the matter, even Rasmussen letting you guys down lately. So now out of desperation you go to betting lines? Geezus you guys are desperate.

I am not desperate and I have been predicting a Trump Victory since last year.
 
Gamblers are always looking for the long shot and that is why they lose so much. Why don't you bet you house on Trump? :lol:

Please instruct us on your professional knowledge of gambling?

What triggered me is when you said always looking.

A Professional would have said frequently but not always.

See I spent time professionally gambling and I worked very hard to minimize my chance of losing to the casinos and it worked very well.
 
State polls always suck, guaging them is hard and state polls can easily be double digits off the mark, which is made worse by the often lack of polling on the state level. Ohio for example has been very lazily polls, yet it is one of the biggest battleground states, outside usc/dornsife and morning consult which rcp refuses to list( can't blame them their poll spamming and their numbers almost always being the same across months of polling looks blatently suspicious) ohio has had very few polls. In 2016 michigan wisconsin pa etc had very few polls, even when trump showed he had a chance polling companies did little in those states.


I can never understand why pollsters seem determined to focus on general election polls or states they hope can be flipped but pay little attention to the big prizes that will determine the election.

Are you hoping the Socialist will win this time?
 
I don't know the betting line says people are losing faith fast in biden, if the trend keeps up like it has since the rnc convention, biden might be in serious trouble, think about that.

Or should I say quit gloating and get to voting, unless you want your guy to be the guaranteed winner who lost by a landslide because everyone convinced themselves the polls they wanted to see said their guy would win, and gloated instead of voted. Either way trumps prospects for winning have been doing good lately while biden is falling.

Biden is so afraid he came out of hiding.
 
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