Another Recession? [W:94,113]

[instagramsci]

Re: Another Recession?

And if socialism takes hold life will become an everlasting recession.

Capitalism requires financial disasters to occur so that the state can come in and fix it every time

Socialism doesn't :2wave:

 

[jaeger19]

Re: Another Recession?

To answer the question.. I don't really know if we are headed for another recession. One hand, its yes.. as many have pointed out.. the regulatory issues that we had, banks "too big" to fail, the decrease in infrastructure spending, the fractured tax code that penalizes real investment and growth and rewards speculation... all those things can lead us to another recession.

that being said.. the American economy is so much bigger than our incompetent government. I think the average Joes response... increasing savings, decreasing expenditures, and businesses responses combined with lower borrowing interest rates for business, will probably mean slow and steady growth over the long term.

 

[blaxshep]

Re: Another Recession?

Capitalism requires financial disasters to occur so that the state can come in and fix it every time

Socialism doesn't :2wave:

Then why are the European governments so active in that financial disaster?

 

[instagramsci]

Re: Another Recession?

Then why are the European governments so active in that financial disaster?

Europe isn't socialist. The countries are by and large social democrat.

 

[blaxshep]

Re: Another Recession?

Europe isn't socialist. The countries are by and large social democrat.

Ok if we are going to make that distinction then you really have no leg to stand on since no country has ever truly been socialist.

You have no point of reference or comparison.

 

[rocket88]

Re: Another Recession?

Wait, did the last recession end?

 

[blaxshep]

Re: Another Recession?

Wait, did the last recession end?

You mean the never ending Obama Recession?

 

[rocket88]

Re: Another Recession?

You mean the never ending Obama Recession?

Whoever you want to blame it on, I think it started before Obama's term. Still, I didn't notice that it was over.

 

[fmw]

Re: Another Recession?

Capitalism requires financial disasters to occur so that the state can come in and fix it every time

Socialism doesn't :2wave:

The state can't fix recessions. It never could and never will.

 

[Kushinator]

Re: Another Recession?

The state can't fix recessions. It never could and never will.

Keynesianism has been shown to alleviate the severity and the frequency of business cycles. This is simply a matter of fact.

 

[KevinKohler]

Re: Another Recession?

So it was just one law from Clinton and nobody is doing anything about it. Wow, the system is indeed broken. Anyhoo, its seems almost inconsequential at this point but perhaps you could tell us the name of the law and then cut and paste the part about mortgage lending standards and the part that prevented bush’s regulators from enforcing the mortgage lending standards?






Do you know what a derivative is?

Bill Clinton - 25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis - TIME

Decent article that explains Clinton's role.

As for what a derivative is, simply put, it's a set agreement between two people concerning specific conditions. More relevant to this discussion, however, are CDOs, and CDSs. Combined, these two are a potent recipe for disaster.

 

[blaxshep]

Re: Another Recession?

Keynesianism has been shown to alleviate the severity and the frequency of business cycles. This is simply a matter of fact.

Under relativity normal economic conditions I agree but applying it to economic downturns as severe as we have been seeing I think it only makes things worse. It goes from having a regulating effect to nothing less than an excuse for liberals to spend, spend, spend.

 

[Vern]

Re: Another Recession?

Bill Clinton - 25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis - TIME

Decent article that explains Clinton's role.

As for what a derivative is, simply put, it's a set agreement between two people concerning specific conditions. More relevant to this discussion, however, are CDOs, and CDSs. Combined, these two are a potent recipe for disaster.

yes, a derivative is an agreement between two parties. almost like a bet. so if a lot of people bet on football games, will it cause a problem in the football business? will it disrupt a football game?

and sorry the Time article about the financial crisis doesn't really do the Bush Mortgage Bubble justice and mentions the completely false notion of the CRA pressuring banks. And they mention it under Clinton's entry. But lets pretend for a moment that the CRA did pressure banks. the CRA is administered by the banks regulator. And the regulators work for the president. And since the Bush Mortgage Bubble started late 2004 when banks lowered their lending standards, Bush was forcing banks to make bad loans. A review of his policies would agree. But since the article doesn't mention Bush's policies of encouraging funding and protecting the mortgage bubble, I cant take the article seriously.

 

[fmw]

Re: Another Recession?

Keynesianism has been shown to alleviate the severity and the frequency of business cycles. This is simply a matter of fact.

No, it is a matter of opinion.

 

[KevinKohler]

Re: Another Recession?

yes, a derivative is an agreement between two parties. almost like a bet. so if a lot of people bet on football games, will it cause a problem in the football business? will it disrupt a football game?

and sorry the Time article about the financial crisis doesn't really do the Bush Mortgage Bubble justice and mentions the completely false notion of the CRA pressuring banks. And they mention under Clinton's entry. But lets pretend for a moment that the CRA did pressure banks. the CRA is administered by the banks regulator. And the regulators work for the president. And since the Bush Mortgage Bubble started late 2004 when banks lowered their lending standards, Bush was forcing banks to make bad loans. A review of his policies would agree. But since the article doesn't mention Bush's policies of encouraging funding and protecting the mortgage bubble, I cant take the article seriously.

If those bets are made, by, say, 10 people, but the losses must be covered by everyone else in the stadium, yes...yes it can, and eventually will.


Are you suggesting you know more on the subject than the person who wrote article, or is Time a biased source?

 

[Kushinator]

Re: Another Recession?

No, it is a matter of opinion.

The data has already been provided: http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

 

[fmw]

Re: Another Recession?

The data has already been provided: http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

I couldn't find the part about the government fixing the economy. All I saw was an historical reference to recessions. I didn't even agree with some of that.

 

[Kushinator]

Re: Another Recession?

I couldn't find the part about the government fixing the economy. All I saw was an historical reference to recessions. I didn't even agree with some of that.

Duration in months:

Average: all cycles:	Contraction: Peak through Trough	Expansion: Peak through previous Peak	Cycle: Trough through previous Trough	Cycle: Trough through previous Peak
1854-2009 (33 cycles)	17.5	38.7	56.2	56.4
1854-1919 (16 cycles)	21.6	26.6	48.2	48.9
1919-1945 (6 cycles)	18.2	35.0	53.2	53.0
1945-2009 (11 cycles)	11.1	58.4	69.5	68.5

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Keynesian autostabilization policy became a staple of the U.S. government following WWII. Cognitive dissonance compels you to disagree with the data when it does not support your ideology.

 

[Fenton]

Re: Another Recession?

Very true. How far off do you think?

Lol...we never came out of the last recession.

 

[fmw]

Re: Another Recession?

Duration in months:

Average: all cycles:	Contraction: Peak through Trough	Expansion: Peak through previous Peak	Cycle: Trough through previous Trough	Cycle: Trough through previous Peak
1854-2009 (33 cycles)	17.5	38.7	56.2	56.4
1854-1919 (16 cycles)	21.6	26.6	48.2	48.9
1919-1945 (6 cycles)	18.2	35.0	53.2	53.0
1945-2009 (11 cycles)	11.1	58.4	69.5	68.5

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Keynesian autostabilization policy became a staple of the U.S. government following WWII. Cognitive dissonance compels you to disagree with the data when it does not support your ideology.

The data doesn't show anything except that expansions and contractions are cyclical. It doesn't show anything else. "Autostabilization" as you put it is something you injected into the data. The only thing that is obvious from the data is the cyclical nature of the phenomenon.

 

[froggigger]

Re: Another Recession?

Duration in months:

Average: all cycles:	Contraction: Peak through Trough	Expansion: Peak through previous Peak	Cycle: Trough through previous Trough	Cycle: Trough through previous Peak
1854-2009 (33 cycles)	17.5	38.7	56.2	56.4
1854-1919 (16 cycles)	21.6	26.6	48.2	48.9
1919-1945 (6 cycles)	18.2	35.0	53.2	53.0
1945-2009 (11 cycles)	11.1	58.4	69.5	68.5

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Keynesian autostabilization policy became a staple of the U.S. government following WWII. Cognitive dissonance compels you to disagree with the data when it does not support your ideology.

Link, please. I'd like to examine the methodology.

 

[froggigger]

Re: Another Recession?

Never mind. Brain fart.

 

[Vern]

Re: Another Recession?

If those bets are made, by, say, 10 people, but the losses must be covered by everyone else in the stadium, yes...yes it can, and eventually will.

Wow, what a great explanation.”it just does”.

Are you suggesting you know more on the subject than the person who wrote article, or is Time a biased source?

whenever an article says CRA ‘pressured banks’ or ‘forced banks’, its lying or its ignorant so I don’t think I’m smarter than the author, I’ve proven I’m smarter than the author.

So the article is just another piece of puffery designed to make you think there are lots of people to blame. Its just so full of falsehoods that it has no credibility. It evens gives the false impression that Bush tried to ‘regulate’ Freddie and Fannie. Then cons take that falsehood and pretend the ‘regulation’ would have prevented the Bush Mortgage bubble. Bush never tried to ‘regulate’ the GSEs. And Bush stopped regulation both times the republican congress brought up the subject.

So in addition to stopping GSE reform (the fake one in 2003 and the real one in 2005), Bush said there was nothing wrong with Freddie and Fannie, Bush forced GSEs to buy more low income home loans, he reversed the Clinton rule that actually ‘reigned in’ Freddie and fannie. (yea, the Time article doesn’t mention any of this). so not only did Bush already have the ability to limit Freddie and Fannie's purchases of subprime loans (hence the 2003 reform had nothing to do with subprime) he reversed the rule that restricted their purchases.

"(In 2000) HUD restricted Freddie and Fannie, saying it would not credit them for loans they purchased that had abusively high costs or that were granted without regard to the borrower's ability to repay."

How HUD Mortgage Policy Fed The Crisis

"In 2004, the 2000 rules were dropped and high risk loans were again counted toward affordable housing goals."

HTTP://WWW.PRMIA.ORG/PDF/CASE_STUDIES/FANNIE_MAE_AND_FREDDIE_MAC_090911_V2.PDF

 

[froggigger]

Re: Another Recession?

whenever an article says CRA ‘pressured banks’ or ‘forced banks’, its lying or its ignorant so I don’t think I’m smarter than the author, I’ve proven I’m smarter than the author.

:lamo:lamo just :lamo:lamo

 

[Kushinator]

Re: Another Recession?

The data doesn't show anything except that expansions and contractions are cyclical. It doesn't show anything else. "Autostabilization" as you put it is something you injected into the data. The only thing that is obvious from the data is the cyclical nature of the phenomenon.

Explain why prior to the adoption of Keynesian economic policy, economic down turns were more likely to occur and lasted longer. Autostabilization became official economic policy following WWII.