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Another Recession? [W:94,113]

bbjd1990

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Lately I keep hearing talk of another recession around the corner. What do you think? If there is another recession, how much can America take and what do you think is the root problem?
 

PeteEU

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Re: Another Recession?

There will always be another recession around the corner... it all depends on how far off the corner is.
 

bbjd1990

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Re: Another Recession?

Very true. How far off do you think?
 

KevinKohler

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Re: Another Recession?

Could be months, could be years. Not a single cause of the last one has been addressed. So, sooner or later...
 

digsbe

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Re: Another Recession?

I don't think the impact from the current recession has recovered, I fear the next one may result in a depression.
 

washunut

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Re: Another Recession?

Lately I keep hearing talk of another recession around the corner. What do you think? If there is another recession, how much can America take and what do you think is the root problem?

Can't really see a recession which would be negative growth in the economy in 2013.
 

beerftw

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Re: Another Recession?

Could be months, could be years. Not a single cause of the last one has been addressed. So, sooner or later...

not only has the cfma not been reigned in and derivitaves properly regulated,the govt is trying to recreate the same scenario in the stock and housing markets.

at this point i dont think they care,so long as the problem occurs on the next president,or the one after and not them.
 

froggigger

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Re: Another Recession?

not only has the cfma not been reigned in and derivitaves properly regulated,the govt is trying to recreate the same scenario in the stock and housing markets.

at this point i dont think they care,so long as the problem occurs on the next president,or the one after and not them.

..and it will still be Bush's fault.
 

bbjd1990

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Re: Another Recession?

I wonder how many years in the future people will be blaming Bush for current economic status. Not ALL of this is his fault and I would like current administration to take a little bit of responsibility. Yeah right, in my dreams.
 

fmw

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Re: Another Recession?

Another recession? As far as I can see we're still in the same one that started late in 1997. Those who tell me the recession ended technically can simply take another notch off their creibility with me. The economy stinks and has since late 1997.
 

head of joaquin

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Re: Another Recession?

Very true. How far off do you think?

If the tea party occupation forces continue to prevent the government from spending on education and infrastructure, soon. Due to the lasting effects of the Bush Meltdown, we need to spend more, not less, to avoid negative growth.
 

instagramsci

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Re: Another Recession?

As long as capitalism exists there will be recessions
 

chromium

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Re: Another Recession?

I wasn't aware that the first one ever ended. Honestly i can't tell the difference from '08.
 

Democrat152

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Re: Another Recession?

First of all, this is the land of Free Enterprise, there is always a recession around the corner. Secondly, next to nothing has been done to correct the causes of the Bush Bubble Pop, so we will have a repeat eventually. I also agree that our declining Education and Infrastructure quality do to budget slashing will contribute to the next recession. I think budget slashers need to read this years' Infrastructure Report Card by the American Society of Civil Engineers, it is quite depressing.
 

DA60

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Re: Another Recession?

not only has the cfma not been reigned in and derivitaves properly regulated,the govt is trying to recreate the same scenario in the stock and housing markets.

at this point i dont think they care,so long as the problem occurs on the next president,or the one after and not them.

I agree completely.
 

fmw

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Re: Another Recession?

As long as capitalism exists there will be recessions

And if socialism takes hold life will become an everlasting recession.
 

Vern

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Re: Another Recession?

Could be months, could be years. Not a single cause of the last one has been addressed. So, sooner or later...

Actually, the cause of the Bush Mortgage Bubble has been addresed. The Bush Mortgage Bubble was people buying homes they could not afford. Just so you know, the way you put somebody in a house they can’t afford is to not check their income. That’s why over 50% of all loans in 2006 were “stated income” loans. (yes, more than half of all loans in 2006 didnt verify the borrower's income)

Every regulatory effort since the Bush Mortgage bubble has been for banks to verify the ability of the borrower to repay the loan. That’s the key part of Dodd Frank. Here’s the Fed’s rule specifically addressing subprime No Doc loans.

FRB: Testimony--Braunstein, Mortgage lending reform--March 11, 2009


"Second, lenders are prohibited from making "stated income" loans and are required in each case to verify the income and assets they rely upon to determine borrowers' repayment ability. Lenders must also verify and consider the borrower's other debt obligations, such as by using a credit report. The rule is intended to ensure that creditors do not assess repayment ability using overstated incomes or understated payment obligations"


As far as recessions go, cons keep wishing for a recession and republicans actively try to cause one. So you guys just keep hoping. I’ll just keep rolling in the dough.
 

Blue_State

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Re: Another Recession?

Lately I keep hearing talk of another recession around the corner. What do you think? If there is another recession, how much can America take and what do you think is the root problem?

Not anytime soon. I am watching the housing and construction market. We are still doing repair work, but the inventory is starting to go away. That is good news. If we can get another 6 months of this, I think we will be in good shape. I am slightly optimistic for the future.
 

KevinKohler

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Re: Another Recession?

Actually, the cause of the Bush Mortgage Bubble has been addresed. The Bush Mortgage Bubble was people buying homes they could not afford. Just so you know, the way you put somebody in a house they can’t afford is to not check their income. That’s why over 50% of all loans in 2006 were “stated income” loans. (yes, more than half of all loans in 2006 didnt verify the borrower's income)

Every regulatory effort since the Bush Mortgage bubble has been for banks to verify the ability of the borrower to repay the loan. That’s the key part of Dodd Frank. Here’s the Fed’s rule specifically addressing subprime No Doc loans.

FRB: Testimony--Braunstein, Mortgage lending reform--March 11, 2009


"Second, lenders are prohibited from making "stated income" loans and are required in each case to verify the income and assets they rely upon to determine borrowers' repayment ability. Lenders must also verify and consider the borrower's other debt obligations, such as by using a credit report. The rule is intended to ensure that creditors do not assess repayment ability using overstated incomes or understated payment obligations"


As far as recessions go, cons keep wishing for a recession and republicans actively try to cause one. So you guys just keep hoping. I’ll just keep rolling in the dough.
It was a law Clinton put on the books that forced banks to relax their lending policies.

More importantly, the housing market crash was just a match that got lit. It was the bucket of gasoline that is the dirivatives market that caused the inferno. Just an FYI.
 

froggigger

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Re: Another Recession?

Not totally, never has been, but he has quite a bit of blame.

That was intended to be a sarcastic statement. I should have added the rolling eyes smilie.
 

Kushinator

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Re: Another Recession?

Lately I keep hearing talk of another recession around the corner. What do you think? If there is another recession, how much can America take and what do you think is the root problem?

The data suggests business cycles are both less frequent and severe. According to the NBER, the trough of the most recent recession occurred in June of 2009 The average duration from a previous trough to current peak is 58.4 months, or about 4 years 8 months. This suggests that, on average, another recession is not likely to begin until the end of quarter 1 2014. Yet given the current levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus, i suspect that our next economic downturn will be the result of slowing down budgetary growth and a substantial draw down in liquidity.

NBER Business Cycle Duration Data
 

Kushinator

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Re: Another Recession?

not only has the cfma not been reigned in and derivitaves properly regulated,the govt is trying to recreate the same scenario in the stock and housing markets.

at this point i dont think they care,so long as the problem occurs on the next president,or the one after and not them.

The data regarding credit and securitization growth is rather ambiguous. One would expect to see substantial growth in C&S leading up to the bursting of a housing bubble.

fredgraph.png


Yet we can clearly see this is not the case, which suggests sector specific analysis can shed further light on the issue. When we observe inflation adjusted mortgage liability growth:

fredgraph.png


The idea that credit expansion of a particularly industry is correlated to asset bubbles can be (somewhat) supported:

fredgraph.png
 

Vern

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Re: Another Recession?

It was a law Clinton put on the books that forced banks to relax their lending policies.
So it was just one law from Clinton and nobody is doing anything about it. Wow, the system is indeed broken. Anyhoo, its seems almost inconsequential at this point but perhaps you could tell us the name of the law and then cut and paste the part about mortgage lending standards and the part that prevented bush’s regulators from enforcing the mortgage lending standards?




More importantly, the housing market crash was just a match that got lit. It was the bucket of gasoline that is the dirivatives market that caused the inferno. Just an FYI.

Do you know what a derivative is?
 
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