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IPCC: Window to avert catastrophic climate change is quickly closing
If the imagined 1.5°C target exists, then how sensitive the climate is to added CO2 is a large factor in when it would be reached.
Let's put some numbers on the articles percentages.
Perhaps the first question is what is the current level of emissions.
Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Under Growth, we see that annual CO2 growth peaked at 3.03 ppm per year in 2016, and has been smaller every year since.
So is the current level of growth the peak at 3.03 ppm/yr, or 2021's value of 2.38 ppm/yr, because 2.38 ppm/year is already 21% lower than 3.03 ppm/yr.
A 43% decline from the peak growth of 3.03 ppm per year, would be growth of 2.03 ppm per year, and a 84% decline would be
an annual growth of 0.48 ppm per year.
One factor is the difference between actual emissions and the growth in the level of CO2.
Annually we emit about 9.6 GtC, which if all of it showed up in the growth would be an increase 4.50 ppm/year, ( based on 1 ppm =2.13GtC)
but the recorded increase for 2021 is 2.38 ppm/year 52% of the actual emission.
From an actual emissions standpoint, (9.6 GtC annually), we would hit zero annual growth at about 5.1 GtC.
So if they want to get emissions down to 84% it would be 84% of the difference between 5.1GtC and 9.6 GtC, or about 5.82 GtC.
This number is within reach if we start looking at our actual energy problem instead of thinking of this as a climate problem.
It seems the climate alarmist are the ones who are denying the science.According to their findings, to meet the 1.5°C target, global greenhouse gas emissions have to start dropping in 2025
and go down 43% from current levels by 2030 — and 84% by 2050.
If the imagined 1.5°C target exists, then how sensitive the climate is to added CO2 is a large factor in when it would be reached.
Let's put some numbers on the articles percentages.
Perhaps the first question is what is the current level of emissions.
Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Under Growth, we see that annual CO2 growth peaked at 3.03 ppm per year in 2016, and has been smaller every year since.
So is the current level of growth the peak at 3.03 ppm/yr, or 2021's value of 2.38 ppm/yr, because 2.38 ppm/year is already 21% lower than 3.03 ppm/yr.
A 43% decline from the peak growth of 3.03 ppm per year, would be growth of 2.03 ppm per year, and a 84% decline would be
an annual growth of 0.48 ppm per year.
One factor is the difference between actual emissions and the growth in the level of CO2.
Annually we emit about 9.6 GtC, which if all of it showed up in the growth would be an increase 4.50 ppm/year, ( based on 1 ppm =2.13GtC)
but the recorded increase for 2021 is 2.38 ppm/year 52% of the actual emission.
From an actual emissions standpoint, (9.6 GtC annually), we would hit zero annual growth at about 5.1 GtC.
So if they want to get emissions down to 84% it would be 84% of the difference between 5.1GtC and 9.6 GtC, or about 5.82 GtC.
This number is within reach if we start looking at our actual energy problem instead of thinking of this as a climate problem.