Anecdotal Observations on Re-opening where YOU live

[Paradoxical]

Danielle Steele has also written many books, which does not make her a virologist or epidemiologist, either.

I never said Prager came up with it did I. Yet you do the usual attempt at denigrating in a feeble attempt to divert. I said I heard it on his show and I will research it. But, since you know Everything there is To know about immunity suppose you give the audience here your proof of what percentage of the populace it takes for herd immunity. I will not accept opinions. Only scientific studies that are peer reviewed and provide proof of their conclusions and not guesses.

 

[ElChupacabra]

What we know is that almost everyone on that boat is now immune if they weren’t before. Excellent news.

What we're not clear on is how long immunity lasts, so it's partly good news. If it's long lasting immunity, or enough to prevent severe symptoms, then it will be even better news.

 

[Grand Mal]

Funny that those imposing their fears onto society calls others spoiled brats. I am out of town and can’t post much but you get the “Mirror time” award of the day.

'Imposing their fears'? That sounds as empty and meaningless as your "Live free or die" crap. I was right, you guys should get "I don't want to and you can't make me!" tattoos. The battle cry of the self-entitled rightist. Say, I bet I could sell a million of those bumper stickers.
How's the Covid numbers in the US of A today? Looking positive, down below one a minute, I see. Still fewer deaths per million than Sweden, too.

But getting back on topic, we're reopening carefully here. Food and drink establishments can seat 50% capacity but you can't go up to the bar yourself. You have to be waited on. Fast food is drive-through only. Most places like grocery stores don't require masks but most people wear them. I use a neckerchief folded diagonally and I cut a straight edge on a flattened coffee filter so it fits up inside against the fold. I pressed snap fasteners on it and wear it around my throat and pull it up over my nose when I go inside. Cloth part's washable, filter is disposable.
Our economy is in recovery. Second quarter GDP down 12% but month of May up 4.5%. On 31 July StatsCan forecast that June numbers would be up 5%.

 

[ElChupacabra]

Let me explain it more simply. Four states have gained near immunity. Those who would get it did and those who would die have died. That’s why the death rate in those states dropped like a rock.

No, and you have no evidence of that since those states have not fully reopened. Even the most optimistic estimates of reaching herd immunity is ~ 40%, which for the state of NY would mean close to 8 million people would have to be exposed. To put that into perspective, there are 457,180 reported cases and 7.2 million tests conducted. That's quite a big gap. Also, that optimistic number is based on just one study, so it's hard to say that's accurate. If we fully reopen, you have no way of proving those who would have died have died. You continue to ignore the measures which are still in place which is keeping people from coming into contact the way they were before.

 

[Paradoxical]

What we're not clear on is how long immunity lasts, so it's partly good news. If it's long lasting immunity, or enough to prevent severe symptoms, then it will be even better news.

This is the problem in the world today, which is that humans think we have answers to every problem that comes along and if we don't, we should, because we could die. In your case, you are fretting that we don't have the answer as to how long immunity lasts. Yes, that is right, and we probably ever will. Also, it may vary with some people. We cannot allow ourselves to live in constant fear and nail biting like you do. What kind of life is that where people are always worrying about something? Who is teaching us that life is supposed to be fair ad we are entitled to know everything? The best scientists ad doctors in the world don't know the answer to your question of how long immunity will last and yet you DEMAND an answer?

Now, even if you admit that there is this thing called immunity (there is) you are going to say, "OK, so I admit that there MIGHT be herd immunity and even if you say that just 50% of the people being immune is all we need, then I DEMAND to know how long immunity will last?? Where and when are you going to get a definite answer to that question? Is Dr, Fauci gonna tell you? Is some guy in a lab going to convince you? How long would it take for science to study that issue and come to a consensus? There comes a point where we have to realize that the world is fraught with danger and we have to live our lives knowing that it could end today and knowing this, not cower behind masks because we fear death which comes to us all.

I have since the beginning of this constant demands from the left. Masks,shutting down, closing up businesses, flattening the curve, then knowing immunity has taken place, and how long, and a vaccine that is proven to be 100% effective. If we keep doing this, we will be destroyed by fear. The pioneers who built America traveled in freezing cold and blistering heat over vast expanses of land not knowing if the freeze to death or starve to death or be attacked by wild animals or unknown humans, many dying along the way from sickness or disease and accepted those hardships as part of life. Now, we have become so soft as to demand that we be protected from all harm and hurt.

 

[Paradoxical]

Danielle Steele has also written many books, which does not make her a virologist or epidemiologist, either.

This is just for you, Luce, because you derided Dennis Prager for reporting that immunity could be that just 50% of the people have had COVID and that makes "herd immunity". Firstly, that wasn't HIS report. It came from somewhere else and I could not confirm it as I was mobile. You said it needed to be 70% which figure you had to have gotten from somewhere and was just parroting that percentage as if it was cast in stone or from some oracle from on high. The information you and others need will be in a new OP that I will post shortly. Be on the look out for it.

 

[snakestretcher]

Let me explain it more simply. Four states have gained near immunity. Those who would get it did and those who would die have died. That’s why the death rate in those states dropped like a rock.

Nonsense. You still don't understand what 'immunity'* means. Oh, and which medical qualifications does Mr.Prager have?

*It means that your are immune from a condition which either previously infected you, or you have been vaccinated against that condition. So far NO studies have concluded that ANY immunity, either long term or otherwise, is conferred post-infection with Covid-19. I've lost count of the times you've been told this, and yet you still persist in believing that once you recover you're immune from reinfection forever.
Even the seasonal flu vaccine only offers temporary immunity for a few months, which is why you should get it every year.

 

[Paradoxical]

Nonsense. You still don't understand what 'immunity'* means. Oh, and which medical qualifications does Mr.Prager have?

*It means that your are immune from a condition which either previously infected you, or you have been vaccinated against that condition. So far NO studies have concluded that ANY immunity, either long term or otherwise, is conferred post-infection with Covid-19. I've lost count of the times you've been told this, and yet you still persist in believing that once you recover you're immune from reinfection forever.
Even the seasonal flu vaccine only offers temporary immunity for a few months, which is why you should get it every year.

This is from a NY Times article that I created a new OP for.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.
The new estimates result from complicated statistical modeling of the pandemic, and the models have all taken divergent approaches, yielding inconsistent estimates. It is not certain that any community in the world has enough residents now immune to the virus to resist a second wave.
But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.

 

[snakestretcher]

This is from a NY Times article that I created a new OP for.

Yes, lots of 'if', 'may', 'inconsistent estimates', 'hopeful', 'possible', 'not certain'. You were saying?

 

[Paradoxical]

Yes, lots of 'if', 'may', 'inconsistent estimates', 'hopeful', 'possible', 'not certain'. You were saying?

Thans for being poster number 56 to prove me correct.

Not a ONE of you here, nor ANY of the experts know much of anything about this virus. To date, every single socalled experts are using

lots of 'if', 'may', 'inconsistent estimates', 'hopeful', 'possible', 'not certain'.

 

[snakestretcher]

Thans for being poster number 56 to prove me correct.

Not a ONE of you here, nor ANY of the experts know much of anything about this virus. To date, every single socalled experts are using

So please explain what possible point you are trying to make? And no, you are 100% wrong about pretty much everything you post-or do you simply ignore those seeking to correct you as a matter of course?
Aren't you the 'expert', consistently claiming that folk are immune after becoming infected and recovering? You can't even keep up with your own assertions!
If even bona fide experts can't agree on immunity, what makes you the authority?

 

[ElChupacabra]

This is the problem in the world today, which is that humans think we have answers to every problem that comes along and if we don't, we should, because we could die. In your case, you are fretting that we don't have the answer as to how long immunity lasts. Yes, that is right, and we probably ever will. Also, it may vary with some people. We cannot allow ourselves to live in constant fear and nail biting like you do. What kind of life is that where people are always worrying about something? Who is teaching us that life is supposed to be fair ad we are entitled to know everything? The best scientists ad doctors in the world don't know the answer to your question of how long immunity will last and yet you DEMAND an answer?

I'd rather not get into generalizations about what human beings do or don't do, but just keep it specific to the topic. I am not in fear of anything; that's just your knee jerk oversimplification of how some are choosing to navigate the challenges this pandemic has brought about. This is much like looking both ways before crossing the street; I don't do it out of fear, but because I'd rather not get hit by a car. There are certain things beyond our ability to understand, but this isn't at that level of abstraction. Human beings have been using science to eliminate the threat from diseases for quite a while now; is that an endeavor you don't support? The rest of your rant is pointless, so I'll leave it there.

Now, even if you admit that there is this thing called immunity (there is) you are going to say, "OK, so I admit that there MIGHT be herd immunity and even if you say that just 50% of the people being immune is all we need, then I DEMAND to know how long immunity will last?? Where and when are you going to get a definite answer to that question? Is Dr, Fauci gonna tell you? Is some guy in a lab going to convince you? How long would it take for science to study that issue and come to a consensus? There comes a point where we have to realize that the world is fraught with danger and we have to live our lives knowing that it could end today and knowing this, not cower behind masks because we fear death which comes to us all.

You use a lot of fear based language when you have no idea the various motivations people have in following prevention protocols; it's why your argument doesn't really hold much water. You make generalizations but have nothing to support your claims. We don't know what percentage is required for herd immunity, and if it is indeed attainable, how long it lasts. You're complaining about what kind of consensus is required, so what's yours? Is it your "common sense" pieced together with bits and pieces of inconclusive data? You have yet to address the fact places which have lowered their contagion rate have restrictions in place, so you have no idea whether "everyone who is vulnerable has died off".

I have since the beginning of this constant demands from the left. Masks,shutting down, closing up businesses, flattening the curve, then knowing immunity has taken place, and how long, and a vaccine that is proven to be 100% effective. If we keep doing this, we will be destroyed by fear. The pioneers who built America traveled in freezing cold and blistering heat over vast expanses of land not knowing if the freeze to death or starve to death or be attacked by wild animals or unknown humans, many dying along the way from sickness or disease and accepted those hardships as part of life. Now, we have become so soft as to demand that we be protected from all harm and hurt.

We may never have a vaccine. Things are looking good for some more testing, but there's a long road to go. What I've said from very early on is improved treatment for the severe symptoms would be a great solution instead of waiting for a vaccine. The fact Remdesivir and other medications have helped reduce hospital stays are a good example of what can help in lieu of a vaccine. I'd bet some good money those pioneers would have chomped at the bit for anything to make the experience better. You know better, you do better. It's what has helped humanity continue to develop new ways of doing things.

 

[Luce]

This is just for you, Luce, because you derided Dennis Prager for reporting that immunity could be that just 50% of the people have had COVID and that makes "herd immunity". Firstly, that wasn't HIS report. It came from somewhere else and I could not confirm it as I was mobile. You said it needed to be 70% which figure you had to have gotten from somewhere and was just parroting that percentage as if it was cast in stone or from some oracle from on high. The information you and others need will be in a new OP that I will post shortly. Be on the look out for it.

I am a captive audience.

 

[SomeCents]

Anecdotally speaking, it's really hard to tell if there's any kind of shut/slowdown here. Traffic is at pre-craziness levels, except for the school buses, which will start to roll in a few weeks "for the limited" students they deem worthy of in-person education.

Masks are almost universally worn when not in places where 6-10'+ distancing is reliably possible; all buildings require them and many retailers have gone to having a visible enforcement presence at their front doors (Kroger has armed off-duty LEOs, Walmart some buff-looking guys who, um, not-so-politely offer you a mask if you don't have one on, Target went with the young/attractive and 'oh would you like a mask today' type.). Sadly, while masks may be "worn", I'd say more than a few are worn improperly (noses exposed or so dirty/shabby looking, as if not replaced or washed).

Our % positivity (worthless measure from my perspective; I hate "percents" of anything) is hovering around 7% but I expect that number to go down as more symptom-less folks are getting required tests (usually to return to university/college). It's been a constant fight with a family member who can't understand that the reported positivity rate of (currently) 7% does not mean that 7% of the general population has been infected. It only means of the folks who've been tested and, up until now, you had to meet more than half of the checklist of symptoms to even get a test; otherwise they just told you to quarantine yourself just in case.

Finally, one of our kids' generation "got it." While some, including mine (thank goodness), went with the "oh no, is she OK....and was she being safe?".....others went with the, "See, told ya. Not serious. She laid around (and got pampered by Mom) for ONE day and then she was better....and no one else in her family got it." Not sure what to make of that.

 

[Eriech]

Not rare in in California. Just not the majority. (I think 30 or 40 percent voted for Trump - not insignificant, not rare)

My ex and his family are all in for Trump. Now. my specific area is pretty friggen blue, although my city had a Republican Mayor.

The reality is that areas that had strong Republican roots (OC for example) are losing votes in this Trump Toxic atmosphere. Trumps toxic rhetoric may be well accepted by Republicans in many areas of the country, it is leaving a bad taste for others.

I would like to see Trump do a "peaceful protest" at hangers in California. Bakersfield, Fresno, Sacramento.

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