Analyzing the 2020 Election...so far

[NeverTrump]

As the US election comes back into headlines with an angry force following the murder of George Floyd, let's analyze the current state of the election and where each candidate stands and how much support they might have going into November.

1. There is an ever increasing belief among Democrats that Donald Trump will not leave office if he loses the general election in 2020. That he will use some archaic law or some trumped up far right wing conspiracy theory to figure out some way to stay there probably to avoid jail time and to keep his power. He will almost certainly question any results that don't show him losing bigly. Legal experts tell us that this is not possible and will never happen, but Trump routinely does things that were once considered unconscionable for the the leader of the free world to do. He's also a very predictable in how he will react to bad news. The far left has compared Trump to Hitler and Mussolini. Even this very act itself was forewarned to us by Trump's own long time personal lawyer Michael Cohen, he feared Trump was a danger to democracy and that's why he testified to it. So that leaves democratic and liberal voters with a very strong fear to GOTV. In some polls Biden leads Trump by 12-14 points, nationwide, but even that is not enough to satisfy the left's fears of this possibility. They won't be complacent until polls show Biden with a 20+ point lead over Trump.

2. Even then, the distrust of the polls are on both sides. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost certain solid blue states by about 80,000 because voters didn't really like her and Trump's relative unknown factor, outrageous campaign, and his lofty promises to states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. As far as I can tell Trump has not done much in the way of keeping those voters or even finding ways to expand on that very narrow victory. If he wants to win those states again and keep his slim margin, he is not doing a good job there. Joe Biden is from PA and they have a fondness for Joe. Most polls show Joe Biden at least 5 points ahead of Trump there. Trump has famously picked a fight with Michigan and the state's mail-in voting initiative in the efforts to help people vote during a pandemic. Everyone knows Trump is being two faced here, since he himself has voted by mail. His impulsiveness here could make him lose the state come November and his polls don't look good there. A few crazies did come out and protest on the steps of Michigan's courthouse and marched in there with their guns, but it's unclear if they achieved anything by doing this. The state is still doing what it was doing before based on it's plans of mail-in voting and re-opening.

3. Even if we get a second wave of Corona-virus Biden is super popular across the political spectrum. He's showing better support then Hilary Clinton did at this point in the election. Even with a pandemic, more people are voting for him. Biden consolidated nearly the entire democratic party (which had some 15 candidates in 2019) in about a month and now he seems to be picking off the last of the never trump republicans and even some new ones. I expect trump will piss off a few more "concerned" republicans before October. Then there's also that October Surprise. Trump has a lot of skeletons someone can still use to their advantage as the election nears. Furthermore, everything Trump has thrown at Biden has crumbled into a nothing burger. While Trump himself hasn't really endorsed many of the Biden attacks instead he just calls him sleepy joe and tries to attack him on his record but either way Trump seems to have ADD and can't stay on message for very long. He attacks MSNBC anchor Joe Scarborough about the same amount of time with more force than he attacks Joe Biden. It's like he's running against Mr. Scarborough and not Mr. Biden.

4. Trump has little to no support within his own party. When was the last time you heard the someone outside his paid talking heads (inner circle) support Trump? No one is even announcing endorsements for Trump. Joe Biden has in a matter of months gotten the endorsement of various large unions, religious leaders, and Michael Bloomberg's famous digital arm. The funny thing here is that Trump's inner circle have never said anything nice about the man even now. They are all using him for their own political gain. Glenn Beck famously tried to walk away from the toxicity in Trump world, but he found that he couldn't make as much money as a Never Trumper so he is back to his scary chalk boards. Trump does not have organic support. He has paid support. Hope Hicks, Brad Parscale, Kellyanne Conway, Jason Miller, Kayleigh McEnany, Sean Hannity, Sean Spicer, Laura Ingram, Rudy Giuliani, Dan Bongino...These people are all on the Trump payroll in some form or another. And ironically none of them were big "trump fans" before 2012 or even 2016 in some cases. They are opportunists and none of them are people to look up to.

 

[NeverTrump]

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5. Trump may have gained key allies in Rush Limbaugh, Kanye West, and Mark Zuckerberg, but he's also lost the majority of his 2016 campaign. Roger Stone is silenced. Steve Bannon is in exile. Michael Cohen is in jail (out due to corona). So is Paul Manafort. Bill O'Reilly no longer has a huge platform, neither does Glenn Beck. Roger Ailes and the Fox News primetime lineup that got Trump elected in the first place is dead. A shadow of former self. Angrier, more hostile, but seemingly less effective/supportive. Ann Coulter is now an insincere never trumper. So are a number of other allies that he gained and has since lost in three long years. Tucker Carlson routinely questions the administration's stances and Fox News was so toxic that Disney didn't even want to touch it during the Fox-Disney merger. CNN has fired every single one of Trump's paid mouthpieces. They all go crawling back to the Trump campaign in some fashion.

But cable news has not fallen in love with Joe Biden either not that it really matters to young voters who don't even know what cable news is. Though, that’s not to say Biden doesn’t have allies in this chaotic media environment. Bloombergs ads continue to hit Trump and so do never trump republicans’ the Lincoln Project. Yet, Biden's "let Trump be Trump" stance is really helping him. He has calculated media appearances and runs a standard campaign as much as he can during a pandemic. Showing stark contrast between his speeches or interviews and Trump’s. Biden sometimes misspeaks but compared to Trump who can’t even spell, he's sane.

6. Trump may like to talk a lot about making deals or his great economy, and conservatives still stick to the economic talking points as if that’s the only thing they can find to support Trump on. But, the protests are not helping Trump. He’s tweeting conspiracy theories and fighting with governors. Confederate statues coming down, police reforms, and racism are all topics that Trump does not have the talking points for. Even his digital Qarmy is getting trolled by Kpop fans. So, he focuses on throwing red meat to the base as much as he can, but it remains to be seen if this can be enough.

7. Even his base may not be what it once was. It's unclear if the Trump campaign has kept up with the numbers. In three years, the Midwest has suffered through some of the worst flooding and fires in the history of the country, the pandemic has ravaged nursing homes and farmers across the country, and millions are out of work. The real economic impact of the coronavirus has not even been begun to be felt yet nationwide. Yet Trump has all but declared victory as more than 100,000 people have died and those in his inner circle got the virus he once called fake news.

The election is Trump’s to lose.

 

[swing_voter]

The November elections are over 5 months away. A lot can happen in 5 months.

Voter attention spans are short, they'll forget about Trump's gaffs in 5 month's time.

The economy means a lot, and the economy will be doing better in 5 month's time.


I wouldn't count Trump out until the election is over.

Remember he won in 2016 when nobody thought he would.

 

[NeverTrump]

The November elections are over 5 months away. A lot can happen in 5 months.

Voter attention spans are short, they'll forget about Trump's gaffs in 5 month's time.

The economy means a lot, and the economy will be doing better in 5 month's time.


I wouldn't count Trump out until the election is over.

Remember he won in 2016 when nobody thought he would.

I touched upon all of this already. You just have wishful thinking. In five months time trump will have made 100 more gaffes to add to his already pitiful record.

Where are his endorsements? Why aren't people who aren't on his payroll coming out and claiming they support him?


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