Analysis: 10 years after latest Lebanon War, next one will be far more brutal

[NO1]

"the July 2006 Lebanon War approaches, tensions remain high in Lebanon in anticipation of a next round, which could much more severely disrupt the country as a functioning state this time around.

Due to regional and internal political conditions in Lebanon, that country would fare far worse after a devastating round of Israeli attacks targeting Hezbollah and state infrastructure."


"...For example, Israeli Air Force chief Maj.-Gen. Amir Eshel warned in 2014 that “thousands” of Hezbollah bases in residential buildings would be destroyed in a future conflict, even at the cost of civilian lives.

“We will have to deal aggressively with thousands of Hezbollah bases that threaten the State of Israel and mainly our interior,” Eshel said in a speech, citing Beirut, the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon among the locations of the bases.

“And that is where the war will be. That is where we will have to fight in order to stop it and win. Whoever stays in these bases will simply be hit and will risk their lives. Whoever goes out will live.”"

Analysis: 10 years after latest Lebanon War, next one will be far more brutal - Arab-Israeli Conflict - Jerusalem Post

The next round against Hezbollah would be much different form the first one, Israel will use full force against them becaue Hezbollah built a military with many weapons and abilities they didnt have before. Right now Hezbollah keep growing and arming and it seems the battle is just matter of time. I don't think Lebanon would survive the next war.

 

[Masterhawk]

This image shows terrirory in Lebannon


Orange belongs to the government, blue belongs to hezbollah, white belongs to al nusra, and black belongs to Isis



As you can tell, Hezbollah controls no territory within close proximity of Israel.

 

[NO1]

This image shows terrirory in Lebannon


Orange belongs to the government, blue belongs to hezbollah, white belongs to al nusra, and black belongs to Isis

View attachment 67205525

As you can tell, Hezbollah controls no territory within close proximity of Israel.

So?

This picture is up-to-date?

 

[Chagos]

So?

This picture is up-to-date?

Nowhere near.

Totally misleading in fact.

 

[coldjoint]

Nowhere near.

Totally misleading in fact.

Then put a picture up there that does.

 

[Masterhawk]

So?

This picture is up-to-date?

It was last updated in Febuary 21 2016. This is supposed to be a map of the spillover from the Syrian war so it's not too outdated.

 

[Chagos]

It was last updated in Febuary 21 2016. This is supposed to be a map of the spillover from the Syrian war so it's not too outdated.

Do you have a link?

I'm asking because something doesn't seem right about the "control" aspect. The South of Lebanon (that which borders Israel) is predominantly Shi'a and a traditional sphere of influence of Hezbollah.

 

[Cardinal]

Analysis: 10 years after latest Lebanon War, next one will be far more brutal - Arab-Israeli Conflict - Jerusalem Post

The next round against Hezbollah would be much different form the first one, Israel will use full force against them becaue Hezbollah built a military with many weapons and abilities they didnt have before. Right now Hezbollah keep growing and arming and it seems the battle is just matter of time. I don't think Lebanon would survive the next war.

In my opinion a war between Israel and Lebanon in the foreseeable future doesn't seem very likely to me. Lebanon has its hands full with ISIS, Syrian refugees and the limited resources required to take care of them.

 

[ido_]

It was last updated in Febuary 21 2016. This is supposed to be a map of the spillover from the Syrian war so it's not too outdated.

Hezbollah is strong wherever Shia are a majority and southern Lebanon is mostly Shia muslims.

 

[NO1]

In my opinion a war between Israel and Lebanon in the foreseeable future doesn't seem very likely to me. Lebanon has its hands full with ISIS, Syrian refugees and the limited resources required to take care of them.

Of course Hezbollah won't iniate war against Israel because they have their own problems with ISIS but Assad gives Hezbollah weapons and Israel won't let that to happened, so when Israel will stop a weapons delivery to Lebanon things could escalate to a war very quick.

 

[Cardinal]

Of course Hezbollah won't iniate war against Israel because they have their own problems with ISIS but Assad gives Hezbollah weapons and Israel won't let that to happened, so when Israel will stop a weapons delivery to Lebanon things could escalate to a war very quick.

It's my understanding that Israel regularly destroys shipments of missiles it considers to be "game changers."

 

[NO1]

It's my understanding that Israel regularly destroys shipments of missiles it considers to be "game changers."

That's what the prime minister and defense minister keep saying.

 

[Cardinal]

That's what the prime minister and defense minister keep saying.

Destroying long range missiles before they become operable is an ongoing operation, and one that is entirely reasonable.

Anyway, that in itself hasn't resulted in war, and as has already been pointed out, it doesn't make any sense for Hezbollah to start something with Israel while their resources and security are tied up right behind them.

 

[NO1]

Destroying long range missiles before they become operable is an ongoing operation, and one that is entirely reasonable.

If so Israel already should have attack Hezbollah -Israel warns UN: Hezbollah has 120,000 missiles aimed at us - Arab-Israeli Conflict - Jerusalem Post

Anyway, that in itself hasn't resulted in war, and as has already been pointed out, it doesn't make any sense for Hezbollah to start something with Israel while their resources and security are tied up right behind them.

There were couple incidents but it didn't escalate, but still Hezbollah will have to react eventually.

 

[Cardinal]

If so Israel already should have attack Hezbollah -Israel warns UN: Hezbollah has 120,000 missiles aimed at us - Arab-Israeli Conflict - Jerusalem Post




There were couple incidents but it didn't escalate, but still Hezbollah will have to react eventually.

“Not only are they attacking Israeli civilians, but they are using Lebanese civilians as human shields to defend their terror activity.”

Well, Hezbollah's playbook sure hasn't changed a bit. Not that I had any reason to think it would.