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Although that position is plausible and intuititive, it is not reflected in the data I cited.
The Korean Labor Department is better placed than we are to comment on the economic effect of Korean college graduation levels. It says that from an economic standpoint there is a large college enrollment surplus whose economic effect is about 1-2% value subtracted per year. (I think that’s right- link is now behind pay wall).
The analogy is unsuccessful because a high level of fitness can be attained without going to the time and expense of gym membership.
Also, very high levels of fitness are not necessary for good health. It is not necessary to run 10 miles a day and do 500 push-ups (in several sets for most people, of course) to be as fit as you need to be. 1 mile running plus 2 miles walking plus 50 push-ups will get the job done.
Good book-reading habits can provide abundant private-life intellectual stimulation.
Sadly it can be several times $30k.
I think it is likely that cost deterrence occurs. If it does it the effect should be measurable, and those who want to make the case for deterrence are the ones who need to locate and cite the data.
i find it difficult to believe we're even arguing about whether it would be good or bad for more kids to go to college.
yes, they can skip college and read books. however, the most important part about college is timing. it is structured intellectual rigor at the point where the brain is finishing development. sort of like how it's best to learn a language when you're younger than seven years old or so. and let's face it; most of the kids who don't go to college are not going to do an equal amount of structured studying on their own. it's likely that many if not most of them will not achieve their full intellectual potential because of it.
i tend to doubt we're going to agree on this, because you're not looking at this as an investment in our national intellectual resources, which is exactly what it is. in the next fifty years, watch the countries with high college graduation rates. i think the value will become even more apparent as we enter uncharted technological and geopolitical territory.