America 1071 COVID deaths yesterday

[TU Curmudgeon]

New Covid deaths last 24 hour period
Arizona- 69
Canada- 2

Coronavirus Update (Live): 21,792,385 Cases and 772,244 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

I think maybe there's better models to follow than anything in the USA.

The population of Arizona is 7.29 million. The population of Canada is 37.78 million.

The Arizona deaths per million (in the 24 hours you refer to) was 9.465. The Canada deaths per million (same period) was 0.053.

The Arizona deaths per million rate (same period) was 178.585 times HIGHER than that of the Canada deaths per million rate.

The the population density of Canada is 11/sq.mi. but the EFFECTIVE population density (taking into account that 80+% of Canada is uninhabited) of Canada is 44/sq.mi. and the population density of Arizona is 45.2/sq.mi.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Yeah, it's up in the air right now; just trying to find the silver lining.

I have absolutely no doubt that the US has the resources and ability to be the most successful country in the world at fighting COVID-19 (which, sadly, it isn't right now).

Whether the US has the leadership, solidarity, and/or national will to do so are completely different questions.

In my opinion

The US does NOT have the current leadership needed to be the most successful country in the world at fighting COVID-19.

The US MIGHT NOT have the current solidarity needed to be the most successful country in the world at fighting COVID-19.

The US MIGHT have the national will needed to be the most successful country in the world at fighting COVID-19.
​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Are you adjusting for all the parts of California that are unpopulated?

Unfortunately that data is something that I couldn't find.

You still haven't established that "ability to pay" is even relevant, especially in a world where we're told that the most important measures are staying home, wearing a mask, and washing hands.

And you still haven't given any reason (other than "I don't want to hear that.") for concluding that it is just as possible for a country with less money to pay the same amount as a country with more money.

Why would we only look at the current numbers, and ignore what happened in the past?

Because we are living in the present. Why not take a look at "Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19
"? The tables there show the current numbers and the charts show the history.

Here are some of them

​

 

[ElChupacabra]

I have absolutely no doubt that the US has the resources and ability to be the most successful country in the world at fighting COVID-19 (which, sadly, it isn't right now).

Whether the US has the leadership, solidarity, and/or national will to do so are completely different questions.

In my opinion

The US does NOT have the current leadership needed to be the most successful country in the world at fighting COVID-19.

The US MIGHT NOT have the current solidarity needed to be the most successful country in the world at fighting COVID-19.

The US MIGHT have the national will needed to be the most successful country in the world at fighting COVID-19.
​

I agree 100%, which is why I find this whole scenario frustrating. It's one thing to not have the resources to fight a disease effectively, but that's not our situation at all.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

"What difference, at this point, does it make? It is our job to figure out what happened and do everything we can to prevent it from ever happening again"

And the full quotation is

With all due respect, the fact is we had four dead Americans. Was it because of a protest or was it because of guys out for a walk one night who decided that they’d they go kill some Americans? What difference at this point does it make? It is our job to figure out what happened and do everything we can to prevent it from ever happening again, senator. Now, honestly, I will do my best to answer your questions about this, but the fact is that people were trying in real time to get to the best information. The IC has a process, I understand, going with the other committees to explain how these talking points came out. But you know, to be clear, it is, from my perspective, less important today looking backwards as to why these militants decided they did it than to find them and bring them to justice, and then maybe we’ll figure out what was going on in the meantime."
​

Which, when you know the context of your "edited" version says something else entirely.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Lefties ponder why our deaths are higher

True, but "righties" all know that the answer is "It's all Obama/Clinton's fault.".

as they fight for people to enter our country illegally without any health screening whatsoever.

Both blatant falsehoods.

Lefties ponder why our rate is higher after they spent months rioting in massive crowds nightly.

Massively distorted propaganda.

**sigh** I remember when democrats werent completely retarded?

And I remember when "political discourse" did NOT mean "rapid and mindless repetition of falsehoods, innuendo, slander, cant, and meaningless slogans".

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I agree 100%, which is why I find this whole scenario frustrating. It's one thing to not have the resources to fight a disease effectively, but that's not our situation at all.

"Leadership does NOT involve being the first person to close their eyes and run towards the edge of the cliff as fast as you can."

"Agent X89A" (circa 1993)
​

 

[Casper]

Yeah, I think we have enough of these threads.

Then stay off them.

 

[Casper]

Hi!

Thanks for taking time to respond.

Yesterday, the US Covid-assigned deaths were listed at 1,071. A single day does not indicate a trend.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

We have had over 1,000 American Deaths a day for a while now.

 

[gulfman]

Over 600,000 cases in California and over 11,000 deaths.Governor Newsome has blood on his hands.

 

[ElChupacabra]

Over 600,000 cases in California and over 11,000 deaths.Governor Newsome has blood on his hands.

By that measure, Gov. DeSantis and Gov. Abbott don't?

 

[AliHajiSheik]

And the full quotation is

With all due respect, the fact is we had four dead Americans. Was it because of a protest or was it because of guys out for a walk one night who decided that they’d they go kill some Americans? What difference at this point does it make? It is our job to figure out what happened and do everything we can to prevent it from ever happening again, senator. Now, honestly, I will do my best to answer your questions about this, but the fact is that people were trying in real time to get to the best information. The IC has a process, I understand, going with the other committees to explain how these talking points came out. But you know, to be clear, it is, from my perspective, less important today looking backwards as to why these militants decided they did it than to find them and bring them to justice, and then maybe we’ll figure out what was going on in the meantime."
​

Which, when you know the context of your "edited" version says something else entirely.

Nice trick, now do that to the post I quoted.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I agree 100%, which is why I find this whole scenario frustrating. It's one thing to not have the resources to fight a disease effectively, but that's not our situation at all.

I wouldn't say that the fire that made the US into the great country that it is has gone out, but I wouldn't dispute it if someone said that the embers were in danger of cooling.

 

[Torus34]

We have had over 1,000 American Deaths a day for a while now.

Hi!

You're right. We [the US] reached something of a low point in mid June but since then the daily level has increased. It's tempting to try an extrapolation and get an estimated total for the year, but this viral pandemic has already held enough surprises to keep me from doing that. I'll leave that risky bit of prognostication to others.


Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

 

[ElChupacabra]

I wouldn't say that the fire that made the US into the great country that it is has gone out, but I wouldn't dispute it if someone said that the embers were in danger of cooling.

I don't think so either. The resolve can be found, it just needs the right motivation and leadership which can help unify toward common purpose. Not having that is what hampers most of our efforts; the pandemic response being a perfect example.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

We have had over 1,000 American Deaths a day for a while now.

Actually it's only 18 days since July 22 that the number of (reported) daily deaths have been over 1,000 (and that's only 72% of the time).

​

however the rolling averages don't look quite as good

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Nice trick, now do that to the post I quoted.

I'll try

"No, I think you have to always — look, I do it a lot anyway, as you’ve probably heard. Wash your hands, stay clean. (Laughter.) You don’t have to necessarily grab every handrail unless you have to. You know, you do certain things that you do when you have the flu. [/URL]I mean, view this the same as the flu. When somebody sneezes — I mean, I try and bail out as much as possible when they’re sneezing. I had a man come up to me a week ago. I hadn’t seen him in a long time, and I said, “How you doing?” He said, “Fine. Fine.” And he — he hugs me, kiss. I said, “Are you well?” He says, “No.” (Laughter.) He said, “I have the worst fever and the worst flu.” And he’s hugging and kissing me. So I said, “Excuse me.” I went and I started washing my hands. (Laughter.) So you have to do that.

...


So far, we’ve done a great job. When you have 15 people, with this whole world coming into the United States, and the 15 people are either better or close to being better, that’s pretty good.

...

And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.

...

Now, you treat this like a flu. We were — in fact, I might ask one of the doctors to come up and explain it. You want to wash your hands a lot. You want to stay — if you’re not feeling well, if you feel you have a flu, stay inside, sort of quarantine yourself. Don’t go outside.

But there are certain steps that you can take that won’t even be necessary. You know, in many cases, when you catch this, it’s very light; you don’t even know there’s a problem. Sometimes they just get the sniffles, sometimes they just get something where they’re not feeling quite right. And sometimes they feel really bad.

But that’s a little bit like the flu. It’s a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we’ll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner.
(emphasis added)

[URL="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/"]Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Conference - February 26, 2020​

​

PS - Ain't no "trick" to find out what was actually said and ain't no "trick" to be accurate.

PPS - You might want to note that it was NOT down to zero, and that sort of puts a slightly different shade on how true "that’s a pretty good job we’ve done" is - doesn't it?

 

[Noodlegawd]

Unfortunately that data is something that I couldn't find.

It's not that hard to get a rough idea. List of counties in California - Wikipedia

80% of the population is concentrated in counties making up 35% of the land area, and much of the space in several of the larger counties is largely unoccupied mountains or desert (e.g. San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside, Fresno).

But that's only a minor point, as I don't really think that density is as big an issue as people make it out to be when making excuses for Spain and Italy, for instance, especially when the populations are generally implementing social distancing.

And you still haven't given any reason (other than "I don't want to hear that.") for concluding that it is just as possible for a country with less money to pay the same amount as a country with more money.

You haven't given any reason to conclude that it's relevant at all, much less that there should be a 100% correlation as you've reflected in your calculation.

Because we are living in the present.

So what? Different states/countries have been hit at different times, and it usually takes an actual imminent and local threat for people to react. Most of the June/July spike in the US was driven by states that were having their FIRST spike in cases during that timeframe, not their second.

Incidentally, Spain, France, Italy, the UK and Germany (which you apparently think have such better leaders than the US) are all showing signs of heading into a second peak. Only time will tell.

Also, you're ignoring other important factors, like the fact that several of the countries you listed have a much higher general level of individual discipline than the US (e.g. Japan, Germany), and the presence of significant risk factors in the US, like obesity and income inequality, which are not as prevalent in the other countries you listed.

 

[Casper]

Actually it's only 18 days since July 22 that the number of (reported) daily deaths have been over 1,000 (and that's only 72% of the time).

View attachment 67291770​

however the rolling averages don't look quite as good

View attachment 67291771

View attachment 67291772​

I didn't mean the whole time but it has been bad by any measurement one uses. And now we are adding children into the spreader pool, anyone thinking numbers are going to look good anytime soon is nuts. Just recently the spread positive numbers are slowly getting better but with schools opening we can count on that number rising again, with that 2-3 week lag the death toll will once again start rising. Looking at trend I would say at least 250,000 Dead before Christmas. Too bad we lacked true leadership at the worst possible moment.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Hi!

You're right. We [the US] reached something of a low point in mid June but since then the daily level has increased. It's tempting to try an extrapolation and get an estimated total for the year, but this viral pandemic has already held enough surprises to keep me from doing that. I'll leave that risky bit of prognostication to others.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

I can't give you an estimated total for the year, but I can give you

and




​

which project into September/October.

 

[Torus34]

@ TU Curmudgeon:

Hi!

Thanks for the charts! Though I've an extensive spreadsheet of data, chart visuals are still the way to go for an almost instantaneous grasp of a trend.


Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

It's not that hard to get a rough idea. List of counties in California - Wikipedia

80% of the population is concentrated in counties making up 35% of the land area, and much of the space in several of the larger counties is largely unoccupied mountains or desert (e.g. San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside, Fresno).

Those facts speak for themselves, what the problem is is the definition of "unpopulated". Is it "Not another person for 1 mile.", "Not another person for 10 miles.", "Not another person for 20 miles.", "Not another person for 30 miles.", "Not another person for 40 miles.", "Not another person for 50 miles.", "Not another person for 100 miles.", or what.

With California being approximately 220 miles wide and 770 miles top to bottom, I'm pretty sure that it wouldn't be the last one. With Canada being approximately 5,780 miles wide and approximately 2,879 miles top to bottom, the second one could well be the one used.

But that's only a minor point, as I don't really think that density is as big an issue as people make it out to be when making excuses for Spain and Italy, for instance, especially when the populations are generally implementing social distancing.

When you compare equivalent areas (for example Vancouver BC [pop.dens 5,493/sq.mi.] and Boston MA [pop.dens 5,396/sq.mi.]) you can get a better picture. But I've run out of excuses not to run errands so I'll have to leave you to compare the cases and deaths between those two cities.

You haven't given any reason to conclude that it's relevant at all, ...

I am well aware that "correlation" and "causation" do not mean the same thing.

...much less that there should be a 100% correlation as you've reflected in your calculation.

No, that is true, I did not "give a reason" why the numbers should correlate. I also don't "give a reason" why water is wet.

So what? Different states/countries have been hit at different times, and it usually takes an actual imminent and local threat for people to react. Most of the June/July spike in the US was driven by states that were having their FIRST spike in cases during that timeframe, not their second.

Incidentally, Spain, France, Italy, the UK and Germany (which you apparently think have such better leaders than the US) are all showing signs of heading into a second peak. Only time will tell.

I deal in concrete numbers. I do not deal in "historical patterns". The people who do deal in "historical patterns" have been unanimous that there would be MORE than one "wave" (they do, however, differ on the number and severity of the successive waves).

Also, you're ignoring other important factors, like the fact that several of the countries you listed have a much higher general level of individual discipline than the US (e.g. Japan, Germany), and the presence of significant risk factors in the US, like obesity and income inequality, which are not as prevalent in the other countries you listed.

If you can give me solidly quantified data on "general level of individual discipline" and the other factors you cite, I'd be more than happy to consider them.

However, I do have to admit that I am not set up to do "multi-value analysis" of the nature that you feel is absolutely essential before concluding that the US is NOT doing as well as many other countries are doing in fighting COVID-19.

What you appear to actually want to debate is exactly the gender makeup of the equine excrement that the US is in WITHOUT admitting that the US is actually in any equine excrement at all.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I didn't mean the whole time but it has been bad by any measurement one uses. And now we are adding children into the spreader pool, anyone thinking numbers are going to look good anytime soon is nuts. Just recently the spread positive numbers are slowly getting better but with schools opening we can count on that number rising again, with that 2-3 week lag the death toll will once again start rising. Looking at trend I would say at least 250,000 Dead before Christmas. Too bad we lacked true leadership at the worst possible moment.

The best that I can do for you right now is

​

Unfortunately for Mr. Trump, that projection indicates that he is going to have to deal with

250,000 DEAD​

before 03 NOV 20, and the US is going to have to deal with 300,000 dead before Christmas.

NOTE - Those are "projections" (which are NOT the same thing as "predictions") that are based on current conditions and WILL change as conditions change.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

@ TU Curmudgeon:

Hi!

Thanks for the charts! Though I've an extensive spreadsheet of data, chart visuals are still the way to go for an almost instantaneous grasp of a trend.


Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

Most of those are updated on a daily basis at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

 

[AliHajiSheik]

I'll try

"No, I think you have to always — look, I do it a lot anyway, as you’ve probably heard. Wash your hands, stay clean. (Laughter.) You don’t have to necessarily grab every handrail unless you have to. You know, you do certain things that you do when you have the flu. [/URL]I mean, view this the same as the flu. When somebody sneezes — I mean, I try and bail out as much as possible when they’re sneezing. I had a man come up to me a week ago. I hadn’t seen him in a long time, and I said, “How you doing?” He said, “Fine. Fine.” And he — he hugs me, kiss. I said, “Are you well?” He says, “No.” (Laughter.) He said, “I have the worst fever and the worst flu.” And he’s hugging and kissing me. So I said, “Excuse me.” I went and I started washing my hands. (Laughter.) So you have to do that.

...


So far, we’ve done a great job. When you have 15 people, with this whole world coming into the United States, and the 15 people are either better or close to being better, that’s pretty good.

...

And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.

...

Now, you treat this like a flu. We were — in fact, I might ask one of the doctors to come up and explain it. You want to wash your hands a lot. You want to stay — if you’re not feeling well, if you feel you have a flu, stay inside, sort of quarantine yourself. Don’t go outside.

But there are certain steps that you can take that won’t even be necessary. You know, in many cases, when you catch this, it’s very light; you don’t even know there’s a problem. Sometimes they just get the sniffles, sometimes they just get something where they’re not feeling quite right. And sometimes they feel really bad.

But that’s a little bit like the flu. It’s a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we’ll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner.
(emphasis added)

[URL="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/"]Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Conference - February 26, 2020​

​

PS - Ain't no "trick" to find out what was actually said and ain't no "trick" to be accurate.

PPS - You might want to note that it was NOT down to zero, and that sort of puts a slightly different shade on how true "that’s a pretty good job we’ve done" is - doesn't it?

Not me silly, to the person who used the the quote.