'AI' to hit hardest in U.S. heartland and among less-skilled: study

[JacksinPA]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nd-and-among-less-skilled-study-idUSKCN1PI0D8

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Midwestern states hit hardest by job automation in recent decades, places that were pivotal to U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, will be under the most pressure again as advances in artificial intelligence reshape the workplace, according to a new study by Brookings Institution researchers.

The spread of computer-driven technology into middle-wage jobs like trucking, construction, and office work, and some lower-skilled occupations like food preparation and service, will also further divide the fast-growing cities where skilled workers are moving and other areas, and separate the high- skilled workers whose jobs are less prone to automation from everyone else regardless of location, the study found.
====================================================
I've posted about this trend before but this new report underscores the dramatic - and negative - impact AI & robotization will have in the next 5-10 years. Unskilled workers will be impacted most severely, followed by non-college educated semi-skilled labor & professional truck drivers. The inevitable result will be a major dislocation of the work force.

In order to prepare for this, the Government should, but likely won't, establish a major network of job training centers in areas that will be most affected: the Midwest & South. See graph in article showing the extent of impact by state.

 

[PirateMk1]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nd-and-among-less-skilled-study-idUSKCN1PI0D8

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Midwestern states hit hardest by job automation in recent decades, places that were pivotal to U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, will be under the most pressure again as advances in artificial intelligence reshape the workplace, according to a new study by Brookings Institution researchers.

The spread of computer-driven technology into middle-wage jobs like trucking, construction, and office work, and some lower-skilled occupations like food preparation and service, will also further divide the fast-growing cities where skilled workers are moving and other areas, and separate the high- skilled workers whose jobs are less prone to automation from everyone else regardless of location, the study found.
====================================================
I've posted about this trend before but this new report underscores the dramatic - and negative - impact AI & robotization will have in the next 5-10 years. Unskilled workers will be impacted most severely, followed by non-college educated semi-skilled labor & professional truck drivers. The inevitable result will be a major dislocation of the work force.

In order to prepare for this, the Government should, but likely won't, establish a major network of job training centers in areas that will be most affected: the Midwest & South. See graph in article showing the extent of impact by state.

Job Training for what?

 

[NeverTrump]

Job Training for what?

Sitting on your butt all day and collecting universal income????

 

[JacksinPA]

Job Training for what?

For starters, how about learning to fix the machines that just took your job away?

 

[PirateMk1]

Sitting on your butt all day and collecting universal income????

I asked a legitimate question, what would you train for if automation is taking over low skilled jobs or skilled jobs? Robot repair? Robots will be doing that too. Then what?

The guys trying to automate trucks are finding out just how skilled drivers really are. Especially experienced ones. Very hard to replicate with automation. A real live monkey can drive a truck, quite capable really. What takes skill and experience is all the BS and sudden condition changes that occur on the roadway. Automation is a ways away yet.

 

[PirateMk1]

For starters, how about learning to fix the machines that just took your job away?

If machines is sophisticated enough to take over a skilled job then they are sophisticated enough to repair other machines.

 

[NeverTrump]

I asked a legitimate question, what would you train for if automation is taking over low skilled jobs or skilled jobs? Robot repair? Robots will be doing that too. Then what?

The guys trying to automate trucks are finding out just how skilled drivers really are. Especially experienced ones. Very hard to replicate with automation. A real live monkey can drive a truck, quite capable really. What takes skill and experience is all the BS and sudden condition changes that occur on the roadway. Automation is a ways away yet.

You might want to read this: AI Will Create Millions More Jobs Than It Will Destroy. Here’s How
But again, free market, right?

 

[JacksinPA]

I asked a legitimate question, what would you train for if automation is taking over low skilled jobs or skilled jobs? Robot repair? Robots will be doing that too. Then what?

The guys trying to automate trucks are finding out just how skilled drivers really are. Especially experienced ones. Very hard to replicate with automation. A real live monkey can drive a truck, quite capable really. What takes skill and experience is all the BS and sudden condition changes that occur on the roadway. Automation is a ways away yet.

Your argument: You don't like the inevitable. Your only option: Accept it.

 

[PirateMk1]

Your argument: I don't like the inevitable.

Your reply: I have no counter to your statement.


Again if machines can replace skilled labor they can then repair machines. Machines already build themselves for the most part in many manufacturing facilities, with just a few human beings looking on.

 

[PirateMk1]

You might want to read this: AI Will Create Millions More Jobs Than It Will Destroy. Here’s How
But again, free market, right?

I am playing devils advocate. I know the free market is the way out especially the FULL embracement of it. But are people prepared to do that? I suspect most are not. Not really. It requires an entrepreneurs mindset. Thats something that, in the USA is sadly not as prevalent as perhaps is ought to.

For me its owning the machines, and investing other companies and individuals with machines, and have a finger in many pies. Thats how I thrive in an automated economy.

The op presented training as an option to relieve displaced workers. I ask train them for what? If you train them for another job then they will be displaced again. There in lies the rub.

I also suggest that the article you presented, paints a rosy rather optimistic picture. I suspect reality will lie somewhere less optimistic.

 

[blarg]

For starters, how about learning to fix the machines that just took your job away?

that should work until they make machines that do that

 

[RetiredUSN]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nd-and-among-less-skilled-study-idUSKCN1PI0D8

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Midwestern states hit hardest by job automation in recent decades, places that were pivotal to U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, will be under the most pressure again as advances in artificial intelligence reshape the workplace, according to a new study by Brookings Institution researchers.

The spread of computer-driven technology into middle-wage jobs like trucking, construction, and office work, and some lower-skilled occupations like food preparation and service, will also further divide the fast-growing cities where skilled workers are moving and other areas, and separate the high- skilled workers whose jobs are less prone to automation from everyone else regardless of location, the study found.
====================================================
I've posted about this trend before but this new report underscores the dramatic - and negative - impact AI & robotization will have in the next 5-10 years. Unskilled workers will be impacted most severely, followed by non-college educated semi-skilled labor & professional truck drivers. The inevitable result will be a major dislocation of the work force.

In order to prepare for this, the Government should, but likely won't, establish a major network of job training centers in areas that will be most affected: the Midwest & South. See graph in article showing the extent of impact by state.

And of course they fail to mention inner cities right Jack?

 

[JacksinPA]

Your reply: I have no counter to your statement.


Again if machines can replace skilled labor they can then repair machines. Machines already build themselves for the most part in many manufacturing facilities, with just a few human beings looking on.

Someone has to design them, program them, supervise the factories where they are built, etc. Unless you're reading a science fiction novel, you can never eliminate humans from the equation. But the humans involved here will need the required training & resulting skill set.

 

[PirateMk1]

Someone has to design them, program them, supervise the factories where they are built, etc. Unless you're reading a science fiction novel, you can never eliminate humans from the equation. But the humans involved here will need the required training & resulting skill set.

Dirty little secret. Its the engineers who are going to be displaced first, then accountants and similarly skilled individuals. What took a team will take one.

 

[JacksinPA]

Dirty little secret. Its the engineers who are going to be displaced first, then accountants and similarly skilled individuals. What took a team will take one.

So in your vision the robots displace the humans, just as motor vehicles displaced horses at the start of the last century.

https://www.economist.com/finance-a...ce-humans-as-motorised-vehicles-ousted-horses

Will robots displace humans as motorised vehicles ousted horses?

Probably not, but humans have a lot to learn from the equine experience

IN THE early 20th century the future seemed bright for horse employment. Within 50 years cars and tractors made short work of equine livelihoods. Some futurists see a cautionary tale for humanity in the fate of the horse: it was economically indispensable until it wasn’t. The common retort to such concerns is that humans are far more cognitively adaptable than beasts of burden. Yet as robots grow more nimble, humans look increasingly vulnerable. A new working paper concludes that, between 1990 and 2007, each industrial robot added per thousand workers reduced employment in America by nearly six workers. Humanity may not be sent out to pasture, but the parallel with horses is still uncomfortably close.
===================================================
Robot (AI)-driven job loss is as inevitable as the decline of the horse as a means of transportation. Burt there will always be a nucleus of human industrialists & innovators.

 

[Mithros]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nd-and-among-less-skilled-study-idUSKCN1PI0D8

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Midwestern states hit hardest by job automation in recent decades, places that were pivotal to U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, will be under the most pressure again as advances in artificial intelligence reshape the workplace, according to a new study by Brookings Institution researchers.

The spread of computer-driven technology into middle-wage jobs like trucking, construction, and office work, and some lower-skilled occupations like food preparation and service, will also further divide the fast-growing cities where skilled workers are moving and other areas, and separate the high- skilled workers whose jobs are less prone to automation from everyone else regardless of location, the study found.
====================================================
I've posted about this trend before but this new report underscores the dramatic - and negative - impact AI & robotization will have in the next 5-10 years. Unskilled workers will be impacted most severely, followed by non-college educated semi-skilled labor & professional truck drivers. The inevitable result will be a major dislocation of the work force.

In order to prepare for this, the Government should, but likely won't, establish a major network of job training centers in areas that will be most affected: the Midwest & South. See graph in article showing the extent of impact by state.

I know it’s not a popular belief, but I think the predicted effect of AI is vastly overblown. Most people, even people that are “experts” in the field vastly overestimate the capability of “AI”. There’s a tendency to fall into a confirmation bias trap, ie the latest fad is the solution to all future problems. People also anthropomorphise autonomous systems. When they see a system acting intelligently they assume it’s making decisions with the same level of understanding as a human. In actuality it’s decision making is often quite alien and much less sophisticated than you’d think.

Running demos is easy. Today there are so many tools and packages that it’s almost trivial to build something like an autonomous car that can match the performance of state of the art systems a decade ago, certainly enough to separate many VCs from their money.

But fielding a highly autonomous robot in a production environment is difficult. There are very few people that can deploy a system that actually saves time and money. Imo, there won’t be a revolution. It will be an evolution as we gradually automate more and more tasks.

 

[JacksinPA]

I know it’s not a popular belief, but I think the predicted effect of AI is vastly overblown. Most people, even people that are “experts” in the field vastly overestimate the capability of “AI”. There’s a tendency to fall into a confirmation bias trap, ie the latest fad is the solution to all future problems. People also anthropomorphise autonomous systems. When they see a system acting intelligently they assume it’s making decisions with the same level of understanding as a human. In actuality it’s decision making is often quite alien and much less sophisticated than you’d think.

Running demos is easy. Today there are so many tools and packages that it’s almost trivial to build something like an autonomous car that can match the performance of state of the art systems a decade ago, certainly enough to separate many VCs from their money.

But fielding a highly autonomous robot in a production environment is difficult. There are very few people that can deploy a system that actually saves time and money. Imo, there won’t be a revolution. It will be an evolution as we gradually automate more and more tasks.

Compare archival film footage of an automobile assembly line in a Detroit factory in the 20s or 30s with one today. Notice the difference? Robots, and a lot fewer people.

 

[Mithros]

Compare archival film footage of an automobile assembly line in a Detroit factory in the 20s or 30s with one today. Notice the difference? Robots, and a lot fewer people.

A lot can change in 100 years. You’re talking about an AI revolution in 5-10. 100 years ago we were working on indoor plumbing and electricity while 10 years ago we were building iPhones.

AI goes through these things every decade or so. Before deep learning there was genetic programming and before that fuzzy logic. They were going to revolutionize everything too. But they’re bound by the No Free Lunch Thereom just like machine learning and every other algorithm.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nd-and-among-less-skilled-study-idUSKCN1PI0D8

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Midwestern states hit hardest by job automation in recent decades, places that were pivotal to U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, will be under the most pressure again as advances in artificial intelligence reshape the workplace, according to a new study by Brookings Institution researchers.

The spread of computer-driven technology into middle-wage jobs like trucking, construction, and office work, and some lower-skilled occupations like food preparation and service, will also further divide the fast-growing cities where skilled workers are moving and other areas, and separate the high- skilled workers whose jobs are less prone to automation from everyone else regardless of location, the study found.
====================================================
I've posted about this trend before but this new report underscores the dramatic - and negative - impact AI & robotization will have in the next 5-10 years. Unskilled workers will be impacted most severely, followed by non-college educated semi-skilled labor & professional truck drivers. The inevitable result will be a major dislocation of the work force.

In order to prepare for this, the Government should, but likely won't, establish a major network of job training centers in areas that will be most affected: the Midwest & South. See graph in article showing the extent of impact by state.

In ten years, AI will be responsible for making as much as 35% of all human labor irrelevant.
A figure like that is enough to wreak sea changes in the very nature of capitalism itself, as we know it to exist today.

Good news, all you fans of capitalism, it doesn't meant that American capitalism is going away and that America will turn socialist, but it does mean that the current flavor of capitalism will become much more difficult to sustain.
Level of difficulty: IMPOSSIBLE.

Technological unemployment at levels predicted by AI and advanced robotics filtered through the economies of scale without a corresponding reinvestment in a brand new American workforce made up of highly skilled AI and robotics experts means the elites of American capitalism will begin to see a scarcity of consumers.

This is known as:
"REASONS WHY CAPITALISM COULD DIE WITHOUT PROPER CARE AND FEEDING"

If you ever had one of those dime store pet turtles that came with a little clear plastic wading pool with a plastic tree, you know that just leaving that turtle with nothing to eat and sentencing it to an existence of running around in turtle water in a clear plastic tray and allowing the turtle water to become 50% turtle crap means you wake up one morning to the nasty smell of a dead baby turtle.

So it's really quite simple...if the elite top tier of American capitalism want to keep their shiny toy, if they want it to survive and not wind up belly up in a sad clear plastic tray and stinking up the place, they're going to have to fork over and sacrifice a little in the name of making American capitalism fit for use on the coming superhighway.

If "The Masters of the Universe" cannot accept this, they can expect an unpleasant reaction because it is impossible to sustain a civilized society with thirty-five percent unemployment. It's also a recipe for going broke.
A lot of former masters of the universe jumped out of bank windows the last time something on that scale happened.

This time around, if it gets that bad, a lot of them might get pushed.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

A lot can change in 100 years. You’re talking about an AI revolution in 5-10. 100 years ago we were working on indoor plumbing and electricity while 10 years ago we were building iPhones.

AI goes through these things every decade or so. Before deep learning there was genetic programming and before that fuzzy logic. They were going to revolutionize everything too. But they’re bound by the No Free Lunch Thereom just like machine learning and every other algorithm.

We're talking about eliminating large swaths of human labor entirely this time, not fuzzy logic.
And while some humans might still get to enjoy a trade installing plumbing and electric, it's a sure bet that their materials might be delivered robotically, from automated factories, and that the only people able to afford to hire them will be people skilled in AI and robotics.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

===================================================
Robot (AI)-driven job loss is as inevitable as the decline of the horse as a means of transportation. Burt there will always be a nucleus of human industrialists & innovators.

Anyone who thinks that an entire society and economy can be sustained solely by a tiny nucleus isn't thinking realistically.

 

[SDET]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nd-and-among-less-skilled-study-idUSKCN1PI0D8

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Midwestern states hit hardest by job automation in recent decades, places that were pivotal to U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, will be under the most pressure again as advances in artificial intelligence reshape the workplace, according to a new study by Brookings Institution researchers.

The spread of computer-driven technology into middle-wage jobs like trucking, construction, and office work, and some lower-skilled occupations like food preparation and service, will also further divide the fast-growing cities where skilled workers are moving and other areas, and separate the high- skilled workers whose jobs are less prone to automation from everyone else regardless of location, the study found.
====================================================
I've posted about this trend before but this new report underscores the dramatic - and negative - impact AI & robotization will have in the next 5-10 years. Unskilled workers will be impacted most severely, followed by non-college educated semi-skilled labor & professional truck drivers. The inevitable result will be a major dislocation of the work force.

In order to prepare for this, the Government should, but likely won't, establish a major network of job training centers in areas that will be most affected: the Midwest & South. See graph in article showing the extent of impact by state.

This should help the gender wage gap. This will affect mostly men and will push some of them into abject poverty. At least the dark cloud has a silver lining.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

For me its owning the machines, and investing other companies and individuals with machines, and have a finger in many pies. Thats how I thrive in an automated economy.

I want you to try a thought experiment.
It starts with not thinking about how "I" (that means "YOU", "PirateMk1") thrives in an automated economy.
Try visualizing how "we" thrive, and by "we" I mean the vast masses of society, all levels, all walks, all flavors.

Are you pretending that every Joe Six Pack gradually becomes an "owner" of some machines?
What, do they keep them in their garage, waiting for some tech giant to stop by and rent them?
Do they spend Saturday afternoons out in front of the 3BR split level, casually wrenching away on their shiny robots?

How cute.

 

[SDET]

I asked a legitimate question, what would you train for if automation is taking over low skilled jobs or skilled jobs? Robot repair? Robots will be doing that too. Then what?

The guys trying to automate trucks are finding out just how skilled drivers really are. Especially experienced ones. Very hard to replicate with automation. A real live monkey can drive a truck, quite capable really. What takes skill and experience is all the BS and sudden condition changes that occur on the roadway. Automation is a ways away yet.

New projects and initiatives that were formally not financially feasible will come within reach. The only people who won't be employable are those who can't or won't learn.

 

[SDET]

I want you to try a thought experiment.
It starts with not thinking about how "I" (that means "YOU", "PirateMk1") thrives in an automated economy.
Try visualizing how "we" thrive, and by "we" I mean the vast masses of society, all levels, all walks, all flavors.

Are you pretending that every Joe Six Pack gradually becomes an "owner" of some machines?
What, do they keep them in their garage, waiting for some tech giant to stop by and rent them?
Do they spend Saturday afternoons out in front of the 3BR split level, casually wrenching away on their shiny robots?

How cute.

Put Joe Six Pack on Social Security Disability and call it a day.