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A Scientific Approach to Evaluating COVID Policy

RenoCon

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This article from two professors at the University of Chicago and Stanford University presents an interesting perspective regarding balancing COVID restrictions and economic costs.

"The idea that America has incurred larger losses from COVID than any other nation has been widely repeated, but it"s not true. In reality, the United States has incurred smaller COVID losses than many other countries often cast as role models, once the total cost of the disease in both lost lives and economic activity is correctly measured and taken into account. A truly scientific approach to evaluating COVID policy relies on quantification of the tradeoffs involved, as opposed to only considering health losses."

"Doing so does not trivialize human life but acknowledges - as all of us must - that saving lives at any cost is not practical nor desirable."

"Consider a somewhat extreme hypothetical example. Over 40,000 people die on U.S. roads each year, yet we don"t shut down highways. Instead of closing them -and losing all the economic benefits they provide - the government manages but does not eliminate the risks from bad drivers by regulating speed limits, enforcing DUI laws, and requiring people to have licenses to drive. Put differently, closing roads would entail a loss from prevention that would be higher than the value of the lives saved."

"Therefore, measuring the total loss from COVID correctly, President Trump"s overall strategy of minimizing total losses by balancing the costs of preventive measures against health losses seems prudent. In addition, the president"s efforts to reduce future total losses globally by investing heavily in cheaper forms of prevention such as better treatments and faster vaccine development - rather than focusing on economically costly shutdowns - seems desirable."


In spite of all the politicization of this issue, it is obvious that it is not as simple as the campaign ads and MSM reporters would like you to believe.


Coronavirus Policy & Economic Costs: A Scientific Approach to Evaluation | National Review
 
5% of the world’s population, over 20% of the world’s death.

GReatest economy in the history of the world.

You will not be able to convince Americans that 100’s of 1000’s needed to die. You will not be able to convince anyone of that, and it’s only gonna get worse as fall hits.
 
If I thought Trump could articulate or comprehend those concepts, you might have a taker.

But having the gardener surround your leaking cesspool with lilacs doesn't stop it from being a flood of ****.
 
5% of the world’s population, over 20% of the world’s death.

GReatest economy in the history of the world.

You will not be able to convince Americans that 100’s of 1000’s needed to die. You will not be able to convince anyone of that, and it’s only gonna get worse as fall hits.

You didn't read the article did you? Or you just choose to ignore the science.
 
You didn't read the article did you? Or you just choose to ignore the science.

The article treats of a general subject which I've written about in previous posts. There are a number of causes of death in a population which can be and have been ameliorated by legislation coupled with enforcement of the legislation. These include the laws of the highways, laws controlling guns and laws covering vaccinations, to name but three. [Ed.: These are examples. they are not the primary subject of this post.]

For many of these causes of death there are the existing laws, a level of their enforcement, and a number of associated annual deaths. We've reached a balance, more or less, saying as a society that this number of deaths is acceptable because of the benefit(s) gained by eschewing the passage of more stringent laws, increased enforcement of existing laws, or some combination of the two.

It is, in a way, a part of the social contract.

Shifts in how the society views that balance can result in change. It can come about through such causes as a greater awareness of the number of deaths or a reassessment of the benefits gained through the existing laws and degree of enforcement.

A discussion of change for one of these causes of death can often become one of emotion, rather than one of balancing factual data. That's because we are h. sapiens, warts and all.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.
 
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Is my stat incorrect?

You regurgitated, with emotional ignorance, a statistic that may be accurate (or not) yet ignore the context of the scientific analysis presented in the article. Do you not believe in science? Did you read the article?
 
You regurgitated, with emotional ignorance, a statistic that may be accurate (or not) yet ignore the context of the scientific analysis presented in the article. Do you not believe in science? Did you read the article?

You just said you have no idea if my stat is accurate, and then you throw a temper tantrum demanding to know if I like science.

How come Trump’s WH has rapid testing and Americans don’t?
 
You just said you have no idea if my stat is accurate, and then you throw a temper tantrum demanding to know if I like science.

How come Trump’s WH has rapid testing and Americans don’t?

There is considerable controversy as to what is and what is not a "COVID death." I don't think we have any idea what the real numbers are. We do know that only 7% of deaths attributed to COVID had only that diagnosis. While the other 93% of deaths had an average of 2.7 other serious diagnosis.

Please show me the documentation that only the "Trump WH" has rapid testing. Or is this just more emotional regurgitation? BTW, did you read the article?
 
This article from two professors at the University of Chicago and Stanford University presents an interesting perspective regarding balancing COVID restrictions and economic costs.

"The idea that America has incurred larger losses from COVID than any other nation has been widely repeated, but it"s not true. In reality, the United States has incurred smaller COVID losses than many other countries often cast as role models, once the total cost of the disease in both lost lives and economic activity is correctly measured and taken into account. A truly scientific approach to evaluating COVID policy relies on quantification of the tradeoffs involved, as opposed to only considering health losses."

"Doing so does not trivialize human life but acknowledges - as all of us must - that saving lives at any cost is not practical nor desirable."

"Consider a somewhat extreme hypothetical example. Over 40,000 people die on U.S. roads each year, yet we don"t shut down highways. Instead of closing them -and losing all the economic benefits they provide - the government manages but does not eliminate the risks from bad drivers by regulating speed limits, enforcing DUI laws, and requiring people to have licenses to drive. Put differently, closing roads would entail a loss from prevention that would be higher than the value of the lives saved."

"Therefore, measuring the total loss from COVID correctly, President Trump"s overall strategy of minimizing total losses by balancing the costs of preventive measures against health losses seems prudent. In addition, the president"s efforts to reduce future total losses globally by investing heavily in cheaper forms of prevention such as better treatments and faster vaccine development - rather than focusing on economically costly shutdowns - seems desirable."


In spite of all the politicization of this issue, it is obvious that it is not as simple as the campaign ads and MSM reporters would like you to believe.


Coronavirus Policy & Economic Costs: A Scientific Approach to Evaluation | National Review


it's really easy...

#TrumpLiedPeopleDied
 
There is considerable controversy as to what is and what is not a "COVID death." I don't think we have any idea what the real numbers are. We do know that only 7% of deaths attributed to COVID had only that diagnosis. While the other 93% of deaths had an average of 2.7 other serious diagnosis.

Please show me the documentation that only the "Trump WH" has rapid testing. Or is this just more emotional regurgitation? BTW, did you read the article?

If we have no idea what the real numbers are, how did you adjudicate the accuracy of the article?

Emotional regurgitation is demanding proof of something that TRump has been bragging about as a reason he doesn’t need to wear a mask, and backed by multiple reporting from left to right.

If you just want someone to grant you all the power in an exchange, there are avenues on the internet that require CC info but that’s not a thing here.

Tell me why your article is accurate when you keep saying none of the numbers are real?
 
You just said you have no idea if my stat is accurate, and then you throw a temper tantrum demanding to know if I like science.

How come Trump’s WH has rapid testing and Americans don’t?


Did you get that tidbit of nonsense from Michael Reinoehl? btw, ya know that voicemail you left him? Yeah, he won't be getting back to you.

There are rapid COVID testing sites all over America.
 
Did you get that tidbit of nonsense from Michael Reinoehl? btw, ya know that voicemail you left him? Yeah, he won't be getting back to you.

There are rapid COVID testing sites all over America.

I don’t know who this person is or why I would leave him a vm but you seem pleased with the dig so I’ll let you keep it.

There are not rapid testing sites available to businesses, schools, etc. If Trump had set up for the nation’s schools and businesses what he has in the WH, 200k wouldn’t be dead, businesses would be open, so would school. And he would probably be on his way to winning a tight election vs losing a landslide.
 
I don’t know who this person is or why I would leave him a vm but you seem pleased with the dig so I’ll let you keep it.

There are not rapid testing sites available to businesses, schools, etc. If Trump had set up for the nation’s schools and businesses what he has in the WH, 200k wouldn’t be dead, businesses would be open, so would school. And he would probably be on his way to winning a tight election vs losing a landslide.

Do a search on "rapid covid testing sites". They're available to everyone. Even antifa poseurs.
 
Do a search on "rapid covid testing sites". They're available to everyone. Even antifa poseurs.

I don’t need to. We know we don’t have this testing for businesses and schools because businesses and schools don’t have this testing. You know we don’t have this testing because you just told me to google “sites” where its available knowing that this isn’t what we are talking about, and the delays in testing make a lot of that useless anyway. Certainly to small businesses.

You don’t have to admit I’m right for it to be happening to you anyway. Just lay back and enjoy it.
 
There is considerable controversy as to what is and what is not a "COVID death." I don't think we have any idea what the real numbers are. We do know that only 7% of deaths attributed to COVID had only that diagnosis. While the other 93% of deaths had an average of 2.7 other serious diagnosis.

Please show me the documentation that only the "Trump WH" has rapid testing. Or is this just more emotional regurgitation? BTW, did you read the article?

From the start - say March - it has been clear that no numbers are reliable; not US numbers or Swedish or those from anywhere else. Not deaths, not infections, not immunities. Some maxima and minima are slowly emerging and that's about it.
 
I don’t need to. We know we don’t have this testing for businesses and schools because businesses and schools don’t have this testing. You know we don’t have this testing because you just told me to google “sites” where its available knowing that this isn’t what we are talking about, and the delays in testing make a lot of that useless anyway. Certainly to small businesses.

You don’t have to admit I’m right for it to be happening to you anyway. Just lay back and enjoy it.

Ooooooh, you want the big G government to force businesses and schools to bundle all their employees and students of all ages together and send them through a testing regimen.
Will they be given ankle monitors and tattoos that signify they've been Government approved and clean?
 
Ooooooh, you want the big G government to force businesses and schools to bundle all their employees and students of all ages together and send them through a testing regimen.
Will they be given ankle monitors and tattoos that signify they've been Government approved and clean?

No, just the rapid testing that Trump and his admin have access to that allow them to work and live as close to normal as possible. And that they promised us.

And: I have yet to see a single ankle monitor on Trump, but perhaps you’re just optimistic.
 
From the start - say March - it has been clear that no numbers are reliable; not US numbers or Swedish or those from anywhere else. Not deaths, not infections, not immunities. Some maxima and minima are slowly emerging and that's about it.

From July ...
You don't know who is infected.
You don't know who is asymptomatic.
You don't know why some are exposed and become infected.
You don't know why some are exposed but do not become infected.
Is everyone equally susceptible to infection? If not ... why not?
Do you know how many positive tests are asymptomatic?
Of those who tested positive, how many are in the high-risk group?
Do you know if the stats are accurate?
Not all "experts " agree on everything.
What a person chooses to believe is truth depends entirely on what the experts they've been exposed to have said.
If a person hears from a wider range of "experts" they would know there are questions.
I think when this is all over we're going to find out we've been misled in many things.
 
No, just the rapid testing that Trump and his admin have access to that allow them to work and live as close to normal as possible. And that they promised us.

And: I have yet to see a single ankle monitor on Trump, but perhaps you’re just optimistic.

Everyone has access to rapid testing. Even you.
 
If we have no idea what the real numbers are, how did you adjudicate the accuracy of the article?

Emotional regurgitation is demanding proof of something that TRump has been bragging about as a reason he doesn’t need to wear a mask, and backed by multiple reporting from left to right.

If you just want someone to grant you all the power in an exchange, there are avenues on the internet that require CC info but that’s not a thing here.

Tell me why your article is accurate when you keep saying none of the numbers are real?

The article offers a "scientific approach" to evaluating COVID policy using the numbers we have available. Since I have asked you 3 times if you have read it, and you continue to obfuscate rather than answer that question, I can only assume you did not. So of course you are still incapable of providing any objective argument. You have chosen the typical progressive response of wallowing in the anecdotal histrionics provided to you by mainstream media.
The only "power" that I claim in this exchange is that you actually have some concept of what you are talking about. Is that too much to ask?

I don’t need to. We know we don’t have this testing for businesses and schools because businesses and schools don’t have this testing. You know we don’t have this testing because you just told me to google “sites” where its available knowing that this isn’t what we are talking about, and the delays in testing make a lot of that useless anyway. Certainly to small businesses.

You don’t have to admit I’m right for it to be happening to you anyway. Just lay back and enjoy it.

You clearly stated: "How come Trump’s WH has rapid testing and Americans don’t?" Prove that.

...

#TrumpLiedPeopleDied

...the lemmings chant as Nancy Pelosi and MSM lead them toward the abyss...
 
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...the lemmings chant as Nancy Pelosi and MSM lead them toward the abyss...

oh, that's just too funny (as Trump lied and caused way more people to die than should have.


go talk to a small business owner and see if they wish things were opening up by now.
 
5% of the world’s population, over 20% of the world’s death.

GReatest economy in the history of the world.

You will not be able to convince Americans that 100’s of 1000’s needed to die. You will not be able to convince anyone of that, and it’s only gonna get worse as fall hits.

Is my stat incorrect?

Oh, and BTW your second fact is also incorrect. There have thus far been less than 200,000 deaths. Therefore there have not been "100’s (sic) of 1000’s (sic)" of deaths. You are actually 0 for 2 on your "facts (not fact's)." If you count the grammatical errors you are actually -2/2 on your facts. Though I am not sure if that is a mathematical possibly.
 
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