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A Brazilian city devastated by COVID-19 may have reached herd immunity

JacksinPA

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The Brazilian city of Manaus was hit hard by COVID-19. At the peak of its epidemic in late spring, the city of over 2 million people had 4.5 times as many deaths as expected for that time of year. Hospitals and cemeteries struggled to keep up, and mass graves were dug to bury the dead. But then, cases and deaths steadily declined, despite a relaxing of social distancing measures.

That trajectory has prompted some researchers to suggest that Manaus has reached herd immunity. In a report posted September 21 at medRxiv.org that has yet to be peer reviewed, researchers suggest that herd immunity developed in the city after 44 to 52 percent of the population was infected at the epidemic’s peak, and that slowed subsequent spread of the virus.

“These are the highest [infection] levels I’ve seen,” says Elitza Theel, a clinical microbiologist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., who wasn’t involved in the study. That high infection rate may very well have impacted the trajectory of the epidemic. “That is how herd immunity works,” she says. “But it comes at a high cost … their death rate was very high.”
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Herd immunity seems to require first filling up the cemeteries & mass graves. There is no free lunch.
 

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The Brazilian city of Manaus was hit hard by COVID-19. At the peak of its epidemic in late spring, the city of over 2 million people had 4.5 times as many deaths as expected for that time of year. Hospitals and cemeteries struggled to keep up, and mass graves were dug to bury the dead. But then, cases and deaths steadily declined, despite a relaxing of social distancing measures.

That trajectory has prompted some researchers to suggest that Manaus has reached herd immunity. In a report posted September 21 at medRxiv.org that has yet to be peer reviewed, researchers suggest that herd immunity developed in the city after 44 to 52 percent of the population was infected at the epidemic’s peak, and that slowed subsequent spread of the virus.

“These are the highest [infection] levels I’ve seen,” says Elitza Theel, a clinical microbiologist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., who wasn’t involved in the study. That high infection rate may very well have impacted the trajectory of the epidemic. “That is how herd immunity works,” she says. “But it comes at a high cost … their death rate was very high.”
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Herd immunity seems to require first filling up the cemeteries & mass graves. There is no free lunch.
Interesting.

Yeah, 50% may not be true herd immunity, but it surely would be enough to significantly curtail the spread. And that seems to be what occured.

And yeah, herd immunity essentially means letting the virus kill all it can - until there's none left for it to kill.
 

JacksinPA

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Interesting.

Yeah, 50% may not be true herd immunity, but it surely would be enough to significantly curtail the spread. And that seems to be what occured.

And yeah, herd immunity essentially means letting the virus kill all it can - until there's none left for it to kill.
This seems to be the direction that Dr. Atlas wants the country to go in. Trump found this neuroradiologist on Fox (of course). He has no experience in infectious diseases but appears to now be running the Covid Task Force.

To establish herd immunity in this U.S. you would need millions to die. Crazy thinking.
 

Chomsky

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This seems to be the direction that Dr. Atlas wants the country to go in. Trump found this neuroradiologist on Fox (of course). He has no experience in infectious diseases but appears to now be running the Covid Task Force.

To establish herd immunity in this U.S. you would need millions to die. Crazy thinking.
Yeah, I do think that's the way the administration is going. Not that they necessarily embrace the idea, but that they have no solutions and need the political cover. They've given-up. Can you imagine? We've 'given-up'. The U.S.A.? When has that ever happened?
 

JacksinPA

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Yeah, I do think that's the way the administration is going. Not that they necessarily embrace the idea, but that they have no solutions and need the political cover. They've given-up. Can you imagine? We've 'given-up'. The U.S.A.? When has that ever happened?
Trump does not understand the virus so he's clueless on dealing with it. But scientists who make him look stupid he can't stand (Fauci & Brix).
 

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This seems to be the direction that Dr. Atlas wants the country to go in. Trump found this neuroradiologist on Fox (of course). He has no experience in infectious diseases but appears to now be running the Covid Task Force.

To establish herd immunity in this U.S. you would need millions to die. Crazy thinking.

Every interview I've seen of this guy he denies that herd immunity is a strategy he is endorsing. I assumed he was a quack because he was brought on by Trump but the more I here from him he does make some sense. I think the media is quick to take him out of context.
 

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Yeah, I do think that's the way the administration is going. Not that they necessarily embrace the idea, but that they have no solutions and need the political cover. They've given-up. Can you imagine? We've 'given-up'. The U.S.A.? When has that ever happened?

What do you mean "not that they necessarily embrace the idea" ?
Come on Chomsky, you do know better, I know you do.



Dr. Scott Atlas is the FATHER of United States "herd immunity" theory, it is now the unofficial stance of Trumplandia.
It's the reason for Trump's disastrous "herd mentality" gaffe.

You deserve applause for your efforts at appearing even handed but there is "too much of a good thing" when it requires turning away from stuff we know as fact.

Trump EMBRACES herd mentality (immunity) harder than he embraced (molested and defiled) the Stars and Stripes at CPAC, because he thinks it's his golden ticket to escape accountability for his handling of the pandemic:
"Who cares, we beat the virus with herd mentality"
 

Chomsky

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What do you mean "not that they necessarily embrace the idea" ?
Come on Chomsky, you do know better, I know you do.



Dr. Scott Atlas is the FATHER of United States "herd immunity" theory, it is now the unofficial stance of Trumplandia.
It's the reason for Trump's disastrous "herd mentality" gaffe.

You deserve applause for your efforts at appearing even handed but there is "too much of a good thing" when it requires turning away from stuff we know as fact.

Trump EMBRACES herd mentality (immunity) harder than he embraced (molested and defiled) the Stars and Stripes at CPAC, because he thinks it's his golden ticket to escape accountability for his handling of the pandemic:
"Who cares, we beat the virus with herd mentality"
I don't think it was the administration's first choice. But it became the choice through no other viable choice due to their (Trump's) politics.
 

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I don't think it was the administration's first choice. But it became the choice through no other viable choice due to their (Trump's) politics.

If that's really true then Trump would not have lied on tape to Bob Woodward, it would not make any sense to do so.
There never was any other choice, except lie and let the virus run its course, and as the boy genius who married his daughter even said, "It will only hurt blue states"
 

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If that's really true then Trump would not have lied on tape to Bob Woodward, it would not make any sense to do so.
There never was any other choice, except lie and let the virus run its course, and as the boy genius who married his daughter even said, "It will only hurt blue states"
Alright, you make a good point here. I still find it hard to believe that would be their first choice, but you bring-up some good evidence in support of your argument. I'm very much inclined to take Woodward at his word.
 

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Alright, you make a good point here. I still find it hard to believe that would be their first choice, but you bring-up some good evidence in support of your argument. I'm very much inclined to take Woodward at his word.

LOL and it's not even Woodward at his own word. It's Donald J. Trump hisself, speakin into one of them thar newfangled recordin musheens.

Woodward's just asking questions, Trump is incriminating himself.
It could be God, The Virgin Mary or Satan asking the questions and you could accept their word or reject it but Trump's voice cannot be disputed.

Think about it, everybody - - Trump is incriminating himself in one of the grandest and most ominous cases of criminal negligence in the history of the free world. He deliberately decided to ignore the pandemic and lie outright to the American people, not once, but repeatedly over a period of months....MONTHS!

If people cannot recognize the enormity of this, the import, the egregiousness, and see it for the Act of War that it is, then not only is the future of the United States in jeopardy but the future of the entire world is, and not just from a pandemic, not by a long shot.

We damn well better quit with the futile attempts at "seeing both sides" when there IS NO OTHER side that bodes well for the human race. This is state sanctioned slow motion genocide done deliberately and with full premeditation.
It is, in fact, premeditated murder on a mass scale.

There is no polite way to describe it.
 
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Chomsky

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LOL and it's not even Woodward at his own word. It's Donald J. Trump hisself, speakin into one of them thar newfangled recordin musheens.

Woodward's just asking questions, Trump is incriminating himself.
It could be God, The Virgin Mary or Satan asking the questions and you could accept their word or reject it but Trump's voice cannot be disputed.

Think about it, everybody - - Trump is incriminating himself in one of the grandest and most ominous cases of criminal negligence in the history of the free world. He deliberately decided to ignore the pandemic and lie outright to the American people, not once, but repeatedly over a period of months....MONTHS!

If people cannot recognize the enormity of this, the import, the egregiousness, and see it for the Act of War that it is, then not only is the future of the United States in jeopardy but the future of the entire world is, and not just from a pandemic, not by a long shot.

We damn well better quit with the futile attempts at "seeing both sides" when there IS NO OTHER side that bodes well for the human race. This is state sanctioned slow motion genocide done deliberately and with full premeditation.
It is, in fact, premeditated murder on a mass scale.

There is no polite way to describe it.
Speaking of which? Why the hell did Trump let all that out of the bag, to Woodward? He just can't help himself. he has no judgement, and no self-control. Imagine what he tells other heads of state, including our competitor and enemy states. Imagine him alone with Putin?
 
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