A bit of good news (3/31)

[Visbek]

- Vaccine hesitancy continues to fall, albeit gradually. It's down to 17% who will "definitely or probably not get vaccinated;" that number was 22% in January. That includes across most of the South.

As Covid-19 Vaccinations Ramp Up, Hesitancy Wanes

A recent survey shows a shrinking share of people expressing reluctance to get vaccinated, driven by increasing willingness in Southern states. Vaccine hesitancy among Black Americans also has diminished.

www.wsj.com

- Pfizer's vaccine is 100% effective for children ages 12 to 15. I assume the real number is slightly lower, but this is a very good sign.

Pfizer vaccine is 100% effective in preventing COVID-19 in children ages 12 to 15

Pfizer and BioNTech plan to submit the clinical trial data to the FDA as soon as possible.

www.livescience.com

Now we just have to vaccinate fast enough...

 

[bluesmoke]

As it's going, we could very well get to Fauci's 85% vaccinated of the US to confirm the great likelihood of herd immunity by vaccination. Keep in mind, that does not mean that 85% of the pop is 100% "safe". And there is the rest of the world to think about. You know, the next to 0% vaccinated of the 3rd world. But that the ignorant have learned and come around to know better means not so many are stupid.

 

[Ethel2]

As it's going, we could very well get to Fauci's 85% vaccinated of the US to confirm the great likelihood of herd immunity by vaccination. Keep in mind, that does not mean that 85% of the pop is 100% "safe". And there is the rest of the world to think about. You know, the next to 0% vaccinated of the 3rd world. But that the ignorant have learned and come around to know better means not so many are stupid.

Fauci's 85% number doesn't mean that 85% of the population has to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. There is a significant number of people who have achieved relative immunity through infection. The issue that the rest of the world is still having high rates of infection affects US here because an escape variant can easily occur elsewhere.

 

[Torus34]

While playing with questionable numbers such as the actual percent of people immune to the disease to create herd immunity, note that the vaccines are not 100% effective. If, on average, they are 80% effective in providing complete immunity, then having 85% of the population vaccinated would mean that 80% of that 85% are immune, or 68% of the overall population.

[Aside: "Hon, where did I put my abacus?"]

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

 

[Rogue Valley]

The higher the vaccinated pool, the greater the odds become of obtaining herd immunity.

 

[Visbek]

What are the current estimates for herd immunity? I recall hearing it could be as low as 60%.

 

[minnie616]

What are the current estimates for herd immunity? I recall hearing it could be as low as 60%.

Experts have estimated that 70 to 90 percent of people may need to be immune against the virus to achieve herd immunity.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

- Vaccine hesitancy continues to fall, albeit gradually. It's down to 17% who will "definitely or probably not get vaccinated;" that number was 22% in January. That includes across most of the South.

As Covid-19 Vaccinations Ramp Up, Hesitancy Wanes

A recent survey shows a shrinking share of people expressing reluctance to get vaccinated, driven by increasing willingness in Southern states. Vaccine hesitancy among Black Americans also has diminished.

www.wsj.com

- Pfizer's vaccine is 100% effective for children ages 12 to 15. I assume the real number is slightly lower, but this is a very good sign.

Pfizer vaccine is 100% effective in preventing COVID-19 in children ages 12 to 15

Pfizer and BioNTech plan to submit the clinical trial data to the FDA as soon as possible.

www.livescience.com

Now we just have to vaccinate fast enough...

They're working on it

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

Admittedly the US has it "slightly" more difficult arranging its vaccination program than the government of the PRC does - mainly because the US government doesn't appear to have the ability to say things like

"Everyone in Philadelphia will be vaccinated tomorrow. All residents of Philadelphia will line up along the roadside and stand there until a member of the US Army Vaccination Corps has injected them. Anyone failing to comply will be shot."​

(like the government of the PRC can say

"Everyone in Rènhé Chéngshì will be vaccinated tomorrow. All residents of Rènhé Chéngshì will line up along the roadside and stand there until a member of the PLA Vaccination Corps has injected them. Anyone failing to comply will be shot."​

and the American people likely wouldn't do it (while the residents of Rènhé Chéngshì likely would) even if the US government DID have the ability to tell them to (or the ability to use the US Army to administer the vaccinations).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

As it's going, we could very well get to Fauci's 85% vaccinated of the US to confirm the great likelihood of herd immunity by vaccination. Keep in mind, that does not mean that 85% of the pop is 100% "safe". And there is the rest of the world to think about. You know, the next to 0% vaccinated of the 3rd world. But that the ignorant have learned and come around to know better means not so many are stupid.

<SARC>All those foreigners in those 3rd world countries have to do is buy enough vaccine to immunize their own people. If their government's feel that buying enough vaccine to immunize their own people, then the people of those 3rd world countries simply have to change the people who make up their government. So what if a single dose of vaccine costs as much as the average person in those 3rd world countries earns in a month. </SARC> Right?

 

[Moderate Right]

- Vaccine hesitancy continues to fall, albeit gradually. It's down to 17% who will "definitely or probably not get vaccinated;" that number was 22% in January. That includes across most of the South.

As Covid-19 Vaccinations Ramp Up, Hesitancy Wanes

A recent survey shows a shrinking share of people expressing reluctance to get vaccinated, driven by increasing willingness in Southern states. Vaccine hesitancy among Black Americans also has diminished.

www.wsj.com

- Pfizer's vaccine is 100% effective for children ages 12 to 15. I assume the real number is slightly lower, but this is a very good sign.

Pfizer vaccine is 100% effective in preventing COVID-19 in children ages 12 to 15

Pfizer and BioNTech plan to submit the clinical trial data to the FDA as soon as possible.

www.livescience.com

Now we just have to vaccinate fast enough...

Democrats spent months on the campaign trail of sowing doubt about vaccines and then after winning they wondered why so many people had doubt. Now they have to try and convince the skeptics they created themselves that the vaccine wasn't rushed through.

 

[bluesmoke]

<SARC>All those foreigners in those 3rd world countries have to do is buy enough vaccine to immunize their own people. If their government's feel that buying enough vaccine to immunize their own people, then the people of those 3rd world countries simply have to change the people who make up their government. So what if a single dose of vaccine costs as much as the average person in those 3rd world countries earns in a month. </SARC> Right?

Right. If a person cares enough about themselves, and their family, they'll give up one, single lousy month of pay to live. Otherwise, it's obvious they don't even care about their own life or the lives of their loved ones. If they love them at all. (ex post facto heavy SNARK warning)

 

[bluesmoke]

Fauci's 85% number doesn't mean that 85% of the population has to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. There is a significant number of people who have achieved relative immunity through infection. The issue that the rest of the world is still having high rates of infection affects US here because an escape variant can easily occur elsewhere.

Fauci's % is based on a vaccination herd immunity, not a natural or some combo thereof, which he has previously stated. To a scientist/immunologist, that is a more assured immunity than is a natural herd immunity. In Fauci's position, would you say "Oh, we don't have to vaccinate people who've been infected and survived. Only the tiniest % of them could get re-infected. No worries."

 

[Ethel2]

Fauci's % is based on a vaccination herd immunity, not a natural or some combo thereof, which he has previously stated. To a scientist/immunologist, that is a more assured immunity than is a natural herd immunity. In Fauci's position, would you say "Oh, we don't have to vaccinate people who've been infected and survived. Only the tiniest % of them could get re-infected. No worries."

I don't believe that is true. I think that the 85% number is based on either vaccination or natural immunity from infection. How does your immune system know if your antibodies were acquired from a vaccine or from the actual virus? While its true that the vaccines induce antibody responses many times what is needed to produce immunity and generally greater than those induced by actual infection, people who got infected do have a level of immunity which counts. Reinfection does occur, but its not common.

 

[bluesmoke]

I don't believe that is true. I think that the 85% number is based on either vaccination or natural immunity from infection. How does your immune system know if your antibodies were acquired from a vaccine or from the actual virus? While its true that the vaccines induce antibody responses many times what is needed to produce immunity and generally greater than those induced by actual infection, people who got infected do have a level of immunity which counts. Reinfection does occur, but its not common.

‘ “If you really want true herd immunity, where you get a blanket of protection over the country ... you want about 75 to 85 percent of the country to get vaccinated,” Fauci said, “I would say even closer to 85 percent.”

(see 2nd para): ’
Fauci on Covid-19 vaccines: For “true herd immunity,” 85 percent of US needs vaccination - Vox

I'm rolling with Fauci, not your opinion. That the vaccine better guarantees immunity than does prior infection alone is true. That 85% vaccinated is the target for herd immunity, not and/or natural immunity, is true. All true based on what we know, scientifically, the facts to be as of now.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Fauci's 85% number doesn't mean that 85% of the population has to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. There is a significant number of people who have achieved relative immunity through infection. The issue that the rest of the world is still having high rates of infection affects US here because an escape variant can easily occur elsewhere.

So why are people who were previously infected getting at least one shot?

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Experts have estimated that 70 to 90 percent of people may need to be immune against the virus to achieve herd immunity.

Ninety percent is probably accurate. Both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are reportedly 95% effective, but Johnson & Johnson is totally different. People think, "Yay, only one shot!" That does not make it better than Moderna and Pfizer.

 

[Ethel2]

‘ “If you really want true herd immunity, where you get a blanket of protection over the country ... you want about 75 to 85 percent of the country to get vaccinated,” Fauci said, “I would say even closer to 85 percent.”

(see 2nd para): ’
Fauci on Covid-19 vaccines: For “true herd immunity,” 85 percent of US needs vaccination - Vox

I'm rolling with Fauci, not your opinion. That the vaccine better guarantees immunity than does prior infection alone is true. That 85% vaccinated is the target for herd immunity, not and/or natural immunity, is true. All true based on what we know, scientifically, the facts to be as of now.

Personal immunity can be obtained in two ways: natural infection and via being vaccinated. Once about 85% of individuals are immune (either by getting infected or by getting vaccinated) herd immunity will begin. Fauci simply wasn’t clear on that although I am quite sure that’s what he meant.

 

[Ethel2]

So why are people who were previously infected getting at least one shot?

They should be getting two shots.
Reinfection does occur-rarely. Getting infected after two shots also occurs in 5-10% of vaccinated people..
Immunity isn’t absolute.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

They should be getting two shots. Reinfection does occur-rarely. Getting infected after two shots also occurs in 5-10% of vaccinated people. Immunity isn’t absolute.

Experts still are not sure if COVID-19 survivors need the second dose.

 

[Ethel2]

Experts still are not sure if COVID-19 survivors need the second dose.

True
But right now thats the recommendation.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

True But right now that's the recommendation.

To be on the safe side, of course.

 

[RAMOSS]

Ninety percent is probably accurate. Both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are reportedly 95% effective, but Johnson & Johnson is totally different. People think, "Yay, only one shot!" That does not make it better than Moderna and Pfizer.

It, however, makes the logistics of distribution much better. Locally, they are giving the J&J shots to people who are shut in for example. The components do not have to be frozen until just before use.

 

[bluesmoke]

Personal immunity can be obtained in two ways: natural infection and via being vaccinated. Once about 85% of individuals are immune (either by getting infected or by getting vaccinated) herd immunity will begin. Fauci simply wasn’t clear on that although I am quite sure that’s what he meant.

No. Fauci meant and said 85% by vaccination.

 

[Ethel2]

No. Fauci meant and said 85% by vaccination.

We will have to agree to disagree. Regardless of what you think you heard, here is how herd immunity can be achieved:

What is herd immunity?
Herd immunity (or community immunity) occurs when a high percentage of the community is immune to a disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness), making the spread of this disease from person to person unlikely.

Herd immunity - APIC

apic.org

I am 100% certain that this is what Fauci meant. You DO NOT need 85% of people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. That makes no sense.

 

[Visbek]

No. Fauci meant and said 85% by vaccination.

Seems like he meant both. He used the 90% number starting last December, referring to "immunity" not "vaccinations." However, some news reports did suggest that Fauci was saying "90% vaccination rate."

How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?

Scientists initially estimated that 60 to 70 percent of the population needed to acquire resistance to the coronavirus to banish it. Now Dr. Anthony Fauci and others are quietly shifting that number upward.

www.nytimes.com

That said, I am sure Fauci strongly recommends that pretty much everyone should get vaccinated. One reason is that last December it wasn't clear how long immunity due to recovery lasts. (A recent study suggests it's probably 6 months.) It's also not clear how well either recovery or current vaccines protect against the new variants (so far so good, but nowhere near 100%).

Since it will probably take another 2-3 months to get 75% of Americans vaccinated, chances are that immunity will have worn off for 20 to 30 million Americans already recovered. So, from a practical perspective, it probably will need 80-90% of the population vaccinated to reach herd immunity.