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And the ones required to use fancy software will be the last to switch. But most offices don't need anything more than the basic package with e-mail and Office, which Open Office replaces fairly well, IMO.
Small businesses could change without that much effort, but why would they? Besides, small business doesn't drive the market or the new technology. It's the big corps that drive it.
Businesses like H&R Block, for example, that have their own software could probably save quite a bit switching to Linux. Seriously, how much do you think it would cost them to re-write their software that no one else uses compared to what they'd save on M$ licensing in a couple of years? I'd think their biggest problem would be finding IT people to trouble-shoot Linux, which could be why they haven't done it. I know I couldn't but I didn't have any problem with Windows even though I had no formal training.
It would not only cost the millions, it would be a potential nightmare. For one thing, it would take years to re-write their s/w. Then, who's going to write the software? No their own staff, because their own staff used MS development tools to write the s/w. Not people they bring in from outside, because those people don't know H&R's business. It would take years and years, and millions of dollars, and while their doing this, their current staff will jump ship because they'll see that their employer is getting ready to get rid of them. Then who's going to support their current s/w?
Then there's issues like testing the new s/w. Who's going to do that? That's not cheap either. It takes a lot of time. They'll also have to change/upgrade their hardware. There are costs associated with that. There's a whole range of issues, and each one if wrought with the potential for a disaster, so why would any IT Mgr in their right mind risk their job and career to start a multi-year project with no guarantee of success or savings, in order to use a OS that offers less functionality?
And this is just one corp that is relatively small. Now take a really large and complicated corp, like Johnson and Johnson, and multiply these problems by 1000.
However, I don't expect any of it to happen soon. Windows has a LOT of momentum. The next "PC" OS is going to be the one that interfaces best with mobile devices. It may not be Linux but at the rate M$ is going, it isn't going to be them, either.
Windows 8 is designed to present a uniform environment for developing apps that work on a wide range of hardware platforms, including mobile devices. MS will continue to enhance that ability. The UNIX world isn't even close to having the sort of support for application developers that Windows has.