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538: Republican's Last Ditch Hope to Stop Trump

cpwill

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The news, as of late, has turned rather depressing.

If it’s not obvious by now, a ship called the Republican Party is perilously close to being hijacked by a populist pirate named Donald Trump. At the last three ports of call — New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — Trump overpowered his rivals, even capturing all 50 of the Palmetto State’s delegates. Armed with a blue-collar following, Trump could continue to win majorities of delegates without winning majorities of voters, and if he does, he could become unstoppable in as soon as three weeks.

Yet there is still a possibility, albeit a narrowing one, that Marco Rubio could turn the tide and ultimately win more delegates than Trump — even if he wins fewer overall primary votes. Rubio’s increasingly tenuous path depends on his ability to win a series of winner-take-all states with high proportions of white-collar, college-educated Republicans, most critically his home state of Florida on March 15. Rubio’s path may also depend on his ability to claim delegates from low-turnout territories like Puerto Rico (which, amazingly, will select the same number of delegates as New Hampshire despite having a fraction of the GOP voters) as well as blue-leaning congressional districts with few GOP voters but many available delegates, such as those in Chicago, Maryland and coastal California....

However, to move beyond wishful thinking and achieve such tactical victories, Rubio will need to consolidate much more of the non-Trump vote and rapidly grow his support in Democratic-leaning areas in an extremely compressed window of time. That’s a tall order, but it may be GOP leaders’ last hope to stop Trump, who clearly has the best chance of winning the nomination outright by the final primaries in June. Republicans in Democratic-leaning and highly educated states and districts, which tend to vote later in the calendar, have historically been more willing than those in red zones to support mainstream candidates like Rubio. And, there are tremendous payoffs for candidates who can consolidate support among “blue zone Republicans.” Under RNC rules, Republican voters in heavily Democratic districts (like Nancy Pelosi’s in San Francisco) select just as many delegates as those in heavily Republican districts (like Kevin McCarthy’s in Bakersfield), making their individual votes more valuable. What’s more, a higher share of GOP primaries in blue and highly educated states and districts are of the more valuable winner-take-all variety...

For Cruz supporters, I'm sorry, but:

...The continued candidacies of Cruz, Ben Carson and Kasich are of great significance even if none of them any longer have a credible path to the nomination. The more delegates they siphon off on Super Tuesday and beyond, the greater the odds neither Rubio nor Trump racks up 1,237 delegates by June, raising the prospect of a multi-ballot Cleveland convention in July....

Your guy can't plausibly make it at this point. Even the guy beating your guy has a narrow path. If you live in a state where Rubio is beating Cruz, I think you should switch sides (additionally, fans of Rubio, Kasich, or Carson, if they live in a winner-take-all state where Cruz has a better shot than their guy, should switch to vote for Cruz).

At this point, what matters is stopping Trumpism.
 
Even though my man has been Kasich, I agree with this. I can vote for Rubio, even though he is a little too far right for me. He does show best in the national election polls. I would hate to have to vote for either Trump or Cruz. I would seriously have to consider a third party candidate. I believe there is a God so maybe Trump won't be the eventual nominee.
 
Even though my man has been Kasich, I agree with this. I can vote for Rubio, even though he is a little too far right for me. He does show best in the national election polls. I would hate to have to vote for either Trump or Cruz. I would seriously have to consider a third party candidate. I believe there is a God so maybe Trump won't be the eventual nominee.

Interesting interview/town hall meeting with Scarborough/Brzezinski and non other than with Donald Trump!

Brzezinski: We have a few final moments with Mr. Trump. I wanted to describe a candidate to you. The candidate’s considered a political outsider by all the pundits, he’s tapping into the anger if the voters, delivers a populist message. He believes everyone in the country should have health care. He advocates for hedge fund managers to pay higher taxes. He’s drawing thousands of people at his rallies and bringing in a lot of new voters to the political process, and he’s not beholden to any super PAC—who am I describing?

Trump: Or any special interests or any donors, you’re describing Donald Trump.

Brzezinski: Actually, I was describing Bernie Sanders.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
No comments...I just find it funny!

Diving Mullah
 
If Hillary gets the Dem nom I may actually consider voting for Trump.

Or Spongebob. This election cycle and our political system is a joke, so I might just play along.

Either way, I'm warming up to the idea of a Trump presidency.
 
I think if Trump wins the nomination, the Republican party is dead. Something else will form out of it's ashes. This **** is getting crazy.
 
I think if Trump wins the nomination, the Republican party is dead. Something else will form out of it's ashes. This **** is getting crazy.

The Dems aren't doing too much better with Hillary Clinton at the helm. Maybe I read too much online but the consensus I'm getting is that she is starting to be hated by many on the left (including me).
 
The Dems aren't doing too much better with Hillary Clinton at the helm. Maybe I read too much online but the consensus I'm getting is that she is starting to be hated by many on the left (including me).

I think she is, but not quite in the "shake the party to its core" kind of way that Trump is.

One positive thing that might come out of this for the Democratic Party is a revolt over the superdelegate BS. Now that people are learning how it works, they don't like it.
 
Interesting interview/town hall meeting with Scarborough/Brzezinski and non other than with Donald Trump!

Brzezinski: We have a few final moments with Mr. Trump. I wanted to describe a candidate to you. The candidate’s considered a political outsider by all the pundits, he’s tapping into the anger if the voters, delivers a populist message. He believes everyone in the country should have health care. He advocates for hedge fund managers to pay higher taxes. He’s drawing thousands of people at his rallies and bringing in a lot of new voters to the political process, and he’s not beholden to any super PAC—who am I describing?

Trump: Or any special interests or any donors, you’re describing Donald Trump.

Brzezinski: Actually, I was describing Bernie Sanders.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
No comments...I just find it funny!

Diving Mullah

I thought about making a joke post earlier in this thread that Trump should pick Bernie Sanders as his VP but decided against it.
 
The Dems aren't doing too much better with Hillary Clinton at the helm. Maybe I read too much online but the consensus I'm getting is that she is starting to be hated by many on the left (including me).

Hilary is nowhere near the disaster Trump is.
 
Hilary is nowhere near the disaster Trump is.

I think Trump is lying about his positions and is much more liberal than he is letting on. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the whole illegal immigrants/Muslims schtick is a charade.

Dude is a life long Democrat with a history of supporting women's reproductive right's and healthcare reform, along with populist opinions on raising taxes on people like hedge fund managers and capital gains. That's as liberal as anybody I know and more liberal than Clinton, who will be a mouth piece for Wall Street.

I'd rather take my chances with Trump to be honest. If he sucks (and he likely will) it will be a shoe in for a 2020 liberal democrat to walk into the White House.
 
I think if Trump wins the nomination, the Republican party is dead. Something else will form out of it's ashes. This **** is getting crazy.

Let's put this insane script to bed. The membership of the party has been screaming for change of their party for decades now. Every change the leadership has touted ended up being just another lie to get out the vote and then back to business as usual with them. That change has come and the only ones uncomfortable with it are the leadership and those who always oppose the republican party on kneejerk principle. The membership themselves are excited about a candidate as they haven't been since Reagan. They're not going to give up on that or on changing their party to suit them.

Just as the democrat party won't die, neither will the republican party. They will evolve. If you want proof of that, see if you can catch Trump speaking to Regent University sitting right next to it's founder Pat Robertson (a Trump supporter btw). The evangelicals aren't deserting the party but instead supporting a SECULAR candidate.
 
I'm waiting for a brokered convention. Now THAT would be some real fun.
 
Hilary is nowhere near the disaster Trump is.

Keep telling yourself that. Remember, this is a person whose partners all went to federal prison while she got a pass simply because she was the president's wife. Whose aide died under very suspicious circumstances relating to paperwork she was trying to hide. Whose husband had a close family friend steal classified documents, sneaking them away in his sock. A behavior she refined and used herself and is currently under investigation for.
 
Nope! No hope left. Con$ are stuck with Trump and it's going to be President Clinton this time next year!!

:party
 
I think Trump is lying about his positions and is much more liberal than he is letting on. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the whole illegal immigrants/Muslims schtick is a charade.

Dude is a life long Democrat with a history of supporting women's reproductive right's and healthcare reform, along with populist opinions on raising taxes on people like hedge fund managers and capital gains. That's as liberal as anybody I know and more liberal than Clinton, who will be a mouth piece for Wall Street.

I'd rather take my chances with Trump to be honest. If he sucks (and he likely will) it will be a shoe in for a 2020 liberal democrat to walk into the White House.

Funny you say that. I have a suspicion Trump is actually is a Democrat, He will win the nomination go against whomever democrats throw at him and right before the election he will come out of closet, stick finger at the republicans.

I wonder what is the legal precedence for this...Someone running as Republican or Democrat and then Switch to the other side right before the Election?

Diving Mullah
 
Funny you say that. I have a suspicion Trump is actually is a Democrat, He will win the nomination go against whomever democrats throw at him and right before the election he will come out of closet, stick finger at the republicans.

I wonder what is the legal precedence for this...Someone running as Republican or Democrat and then Switch to the other side right before the Election?

Diving Mullah

That is the most idiotic theory likely ever posted on this forum (I'm not saying your are, but that theory is). Are you even aware of how the election or party system works here?
 
Nope! No hope left. Con$ are stuck with Trump and it's going to be President Clinton this time next year!!

:party

We're not stuck, we have chosen Trump. And we'll see who eats the crow in about eight months.
 
prediction, trump will dominate super tuesday!
 
We're not stuck, we have chosen Trump. And we'll see who eats the crow in about eight months.

Trump is an unelectable candidate. Everyone with common sense can see it, but that's fine by me. I look forward to another awesome Clinton administration since I'm not old enough to remember the last one.
 
Trump is an unelectable candidate. Everyone with common sense can see it, but that's fine by me. I look forward to another awesome Clinton administration since I'm not old enough to remember the last one.

That's what the Republicans thought. He's doing pretty damn well for someone who is "unelectable".
 
It all comes down to the winner-take-all states. Trump can keep winning with 35% or even 40%, for the time being, and only end up with a minority of delegates. But that'll change in a few weeks. I hope Rubio and Cruz are planning for that. (Who knows what Kasich's plan is...)

The ironic thing is that this calendar was created to help the frontrunner, and prevent some outsider from being nominated. They never expected that the outsider would BE the frontrunner....
 
Trump is an unelectable candidate. Everyone with common sense can see it, but that's fine by me. I look forward to another awesome Clinton administration since I'm not old enough to remember the last one.

I believe he is a lot less unelectable than people realize. Towards the beginning of his campaign I would have agreed with you.

Hillary is not very well liked among a majority of Democrats. Her support MIGHT be 50/50 passive/active, where half her support base loves her and the other half is voting for her because meh. And then you have 30-40% of Democrats who identify as more liberal who are passionate about Bernie Sanders. Of this 40% (we'll go with that) there's maybe 101-15% you could say probably won't vote in 2016 at all if Hillary gets the nom. And then you have conservative Democrats (blue collar union types) and black voters, who typically would go for Hillary taking a second look at Trump because he's a populist. I predict this will be the first election in recent history where a Republican (Trump) gets more than 15% of the black vote. Trump's cross-over appeal to certain segments of the Dem population is not unreasonable.

I truly believe if Hillary gets the nom, we will see Trump as our next President.
 
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