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538: Most Americans will have a Democratic governor

MTAtech

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-likely-to-make-big-gains-in-governors-races/

According to FiveThirtyEight’s “Classic” forecast,[SUP]1[/SUP] 195 million Americans will have a Democratic governor after the 2018 elections, compared to 134 million with a Republican one. Democrats are forecasted to control 24 states, on average; Republicans to control 26. (Currently, 33 states have Republican governors, 16 states have Democratic governors and one (Alaska) an independent.)
This is important because Democratic governors can block Republican legislatures gerrymandering efforts after the 2020 census.
 
Things that will fix the American political system.

1. Stop Gerrymandering. Blatantly undemocratic (no matter who does it), needs to be gone yesterday.

2. Money in politics HAS to be severely curtailed, Citizens United legalized corruption in essence and it is ridiculous that people think Money = Speech, that is at least partially responsible for the acceleration in the decay of the countries politics.

3. Enact a form of proportional representation so that people have a real democratic choice and not the farce of the 2 party dictatorship.

4. Don't know exactly how you would do this, but stamp out the blatant voter suppression. That is what many Republican states are doing and it has nothing to do with addressing voter fraud.

But no one will do this, because they're either too invested in their tribe to want to push for this, or they're the party themselves that don't want to lose any power.

So, the above can be packed into a bong and smoked, because that's as far as it'll ever go.
 
Things that will fix the American political system.

1. Stop Gerrymandering. Blatantly undemocratic (no matter who does it), needs to be gone yesterday.

2. Money in politics HAS to be severely curtailed, Citizens United legalized corruption in essence and it is ridiculous that people think Money = Speech, that is at least partially responsible for the acceleration in the decay of the countries politics.

3. Enact a form of proportional representation so that people have a real democratic choice and not the farce of the 2 party dictatorship.

4. Don't know exactly how you would do this, but stamp out the blatant voter suppression. That is what many Republican states are doing and it has nothing to do with addressing voter fraud.

But no one will do this, because they're either too invested in their tribe to want to push for this, or they're the party themselves that don't want to lose any power.

So, the above can be packed into a bong and smoked, because that's as far as it'll ever go.

Agreed on all points, though I have better things to put in my bong. :)
 
New York's race is getting tighter than anyone thought it could. Maybe an upset?
 
New York's race is getting tighter than anyone thought it could. Maybe an upset?

First, just how badly did you expect the Republican to lose???

Define 'tight'....

Last poll I saw has the split 49 to 36 in favor of the democrat... :peace
 
First, just how badly did you expect the Republican to lose???

Define 'tight'....

Last poll I saw has the split 49 to 36 in favor of the democrat... :peace

That would be a tremendous upset. A single digit (%) win for Cuomo would be a very tight race. He does have some corruption swirling around him, from what I remember. That and the fact that he is a moron are the only hopes that Molinaro has in a State like NY.
 
Things that will fix the American political system.

1. Stop Gerrymandering. Blatantly undemocratic (no matter who does it), needs to be gone yesterday.

I agree, but the SCOTUS has already left it to the states, and both sides like to gerrymander in ways to maximize party wins.

2. Money in politics HAS to be severely curtailed, Citizens United legalized corruption in essence and it is ridiculous that people think Money = Speech, that is at least partially responsible for the acceleration in the decay of the countries politics.

That won't stop as long as the Government is so involved in the fortunes of private business. On the plus side, recent elections are showing that the idea of buying an election may be passe in the era of social media. I think the bigger worry is not money in politics, but access in politics. I think Facebook, Twitter and Google's propensity to filter in favor of one party is more damaging than money.

3. Enact a form of proportional representation so that people have a real democratic choice and not the farce of the 2 party dictatorship.

It's called the House of Representatives.

4. Don't know exactly how you would do this, but stamp out the blatant voter suppression. That is what many Republican states are doing and it has nothing to do with addressing voter fraud.

As long as you insist that it is a one party problem it will remain a problem.

But no one will do this, because they're either too invested in their tribe to want to push for this, or they're the party themselves that don't want to lose any power.

Well, the irony here is that in your otherwise well considered arguments you remained mostly within your tribe.
 
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-likely-to-make-big-gains-in-governors-races/


This is important because Democratic governors can block Republican legislatures gerrymandering efforts after the 2020 census.

Well, that can ready be read any number of ways. Sure, the most populated states have Democrat governors... so the most violence will be under Democrat Governors, the most auto accidents, the most rapes, the most murders, the most poverty.. etc. etc.

That isn't to blame governors for this, but to point out that meaningless statistics are meaningless.

The only REAL takeaway from this is that states fairly well represent the politics of their constituents. The Federal government by design weighs both the population as a whole and the states individually. That latter part of the equation plays a major role only in close presidential elections.
 
I agree, but the SCOTUS has already left it to the states, and both sides like to gerrymander in ways to maximize party wins.



That won't stop as long as the Government is so involved in the fortunes of private business. On the plus side, recent elections are showing that the idea of buying an election may be passe in the era of social media. I think the bigger worry is not money in politics, but access in politics. I think Facebook, Twitter and Google's propensity to filter in favor of one party is more damaging than money.



It's called the House of Representatives.



As long as you insist that it is a one party problem it will remain a problem.

Sorry, but objective reality dictates that in this case it's only one side who constantly engages in and ecounrages voter suppression, and that's republicans.

You can pretend that reality doesn't exist, but there it is, all the same.
 
But is Democrat gerrymandering unacceptable?
No and it is nothing like Republican efforts to put their thumb on the electoral scale.

In North Carolina, after a Democrat won the governorship, Republicans used the incumbent’s final days to pass legislation stripping the governor’s office of much of its power.

In Georgia, Republicans tried to use transparently phony concerns about access for disabled voters to close most of the polling places in a mainly black district.

In West Virginia, Republican legislators exploited complaints about excessive spending to impeach the entire State Supreme Court and replace it with party loyalists.

There is nothing equivalent on the Democratic side.

What all of them reflect is the reality that the modern GOP feels no allegiance to democratic ideals; it will do whatever it thinks it can get away with to entrench its power.
 
Sorry, but objective reality dictates that in this case it's only one side who constantly engages in and ecounrages voter suppression, and that's republicans.

Well, that's false. You are simply suffering from a myopia that only allows you to recall when Republicans do it and disregard, downplay or forget when Democrats do it.

You can pretend that reality doesn't exist, but there it is, all the same.

Claiming your recollection is reality isn't a very strong argument.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-suppress-the-vote/

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/opinions/democrats-need-reform-new-york-primary-weaver/index.html

"Voter Suppression" is simply a placeholder excuse trotted out by Democrats every year as a potential fallback excuse for under performing, same for Republicans.

The Democrats have all the money and ground game necessary to register people to vote and acquire state IDs ... but they never seem to spend time on the latter.
 
No and it is nothing like Republican efforts to put their thumb on the electoral scale.

In North Carolina, after a Democrat won the governorship, Republicans used the incumbent’s final days to pass legislation stripping the governor’s office of much of its power.

In Georgia, Republicans tried to use transparently phony concerns about access for disabled voters to close most of the polling places in a mainly black district.

In West Virginia, Republican legislators exploited complaints about excessive spending to impeach the entire State Supreme Court and replace it with party loyalists.

There is nothing equivalent on the Democratic side.

What all of them reflect is the reality that the modern GOP feels no allegiance to democratic ideals; it will do whatever it thinks it can get away with to entrench its power.

None of that is Gerrymandering. Actually, the original Gerrymander was done back when the Democrats and Republicans were united as a single party.
 
Well, that can ready be read any number of ways. Sure, the most populated states have Democrat governors... so the most violence will be under Democrat Governors, the most auto accidents, the most rapes, the most murders, the most poverty.. etc. etc.

That isn't to blame governors for this, but to point out that meaningless statistics are meaningless.

The only REAL takeaway from this is that states fairly well represent the politics of their constituents. The Federal government by design weighs both the population as a whole and the states individually. That latter part of the equation plays a major role only in close presidential elections.

First, the narrative that large population states have the worst crimes is false. The highest violent crime rate is in these states:

#41 South Carolina
#42 Delaware
#43 Missouri
#44 Alabama
#45 Arkansas
#46 Louisiana
#47 Tennessee
#48 Nevada
#49 New Mexico
#50 Alaska (worst)

Second, a system that allows consistent minority rule is antithetical to democracy. Worse, is when that minority knows they are the minority and fudge the rules to cement their power. The Brennan Center estimated that it would take an 11% gain by Democrats to merely win a majority in the House.
 
Well, that's false. You are simply suffering from a myopia that only allows you to recall when Republicans do it and disregard, downplay or forget when Democrats do it.



Claiming your recollection is reality isn't a very strong argument.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-suppress-the-vote/

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/opinions/democrats-need-reform-new-york-primary-weaver/index.html

"Voter Suppression" is simply a placeholder excuse trotted out by Democrats every year as a potential fallback excuse for under performing, same for Republicans.

The Democrats have all the money and ground game necessary to register people to vote and acquire state IDs ... but they never seem to spend time on the latter.

LOL! That you have to pretend that those links actually show voter suppression is quite telling.

Not allowing for open primaries is not voter suppression. Not allowing independents to vote in party primaries is not voter suppression. Not consolidating all elections at one time and allowing municipalties to choose their elections dates is not voter suppression.

You can choose to deny the reality of active, coordinated republican attempts to suppress voting and voters, and ignore their own public statments about it, but it won't change a thing.

Requiring ID, closing polling places, making onerous requirements right before an election (N. Dakota), launching phony investigations (Kemp), "Use it or lose it" registration laws, massive role purging, etc... that's voter suppression and it's strictly the purview of conservative republicans.
 
First, the narrative that large population states have the worst crimes is false. The highest violent crime rate is in these states:

#41 South Carolina
#42 Delaware
#43 Missouri
#44 Alabama
#45 Arkansas
#46 Louisiana
#47 Tennessee
#48 Nevada
#49 New Mexico
#50 Alaska (worst)

Second, a system that allows consistent minority rule is antithetical to democracy. Worse, is when that minority knows they are the minority and fudge the rules to cement their power. The Brennan Center estimated that it would take an 11% gain by Democrats to merely win a majority in the House.

I said "most", not per capita.

Also, "minority rule" is indeed antithetical to "democracy", so a true democracy is not good for minorities. Our founding fathers knew this, thus we were founded as a Representative Republic.
 
Things that will fix the American political system.

1. Stop Gerrymandering. Blatantly undemocratic (no matter who does it), needs to be gone yesterday.

2. Money in politics HAS to be severely curtailed, Citizens United legalized corruption in essence and it is ridiculous that people think Money = Speech, that is at least partially responsible for the acceleration in the decay of the countries politics.

3. Enact a form of proportional representation so that people have a real democratic choice and not the farce of the 2 party dictatorship.

4. Don't know exactly how you would do this, but stamp out the blatant voter suppression. That is what many Republican states are doing and it has nothing to do with addressing voter fraud.

But no one will do this, because they're either too invested in their tribe to want to push for this, or they're the party themselves that don't want to lose any power.

So, the above can be packed into a bong and smoked, because that's as far as it'll ever go.

This is all too complicated and gives me a headache. Since Amazon continues to grow and their web services are used by nearly everyone, can't we just shop for the next president via Amazon Prime or something like that? A synopsis of their platform can be placed in the "product description" section along with other relevant metadata in their respective fields. Then voters can just select the candidate and be done with it.
 
LOL! That you have to pretend that those links actually show voter suppression is quite telling.

Not allowing for open primaries is not voter suppression. Not allowing independents to vote in party primaries is not voter suppression. Not consolidating all elections at one time and allowing municipalties to choose their elections dates is not voter suppression.

You can choose to deny the reality of active, coordinated republican attempts to suppress voting and voters, and ignore their own public statments about it, but it won't change a thing.

Requiring ID, closing polling places, making onerous requirements right before an election (N. Dakota), launching phony investigations (Kemp), "Use it or lose it" registration laws, massive role purging, etc... that's voter suppression and it's strictly the purview of conservative republicans.

"Not allowing people to vote isn't voter supression!" .... I guess we'll agree to disagree. :roll:
 
This is all too complicated and gives me a headache. Since Amazon continues to grow and their web services are used by nearly everyone, can't we just shop for the next president via Amazon Prime or something like that? A synopsis of their platform can be placed in the "product description" section along with other relevant metadata in their respective fields. Then voters can just select the candidate and be done with it.

Nah, you’re looking at more of a mobile game micro transaction deal here.

“Don’t want your president to be a total ****, that’ll be $11.8 billion”

“Good governances? On special today for $2 Billion”.
 
Nah, you’re looking at more of a mobile game micro transaction deal here.

“Don’t want your president to be a total ****, that’ll be $11.8 billion”

“Good governances? On special today for $2 Billion”.

Are you confident in that approach? Remember, many people are bad at math. Shopping, however, doesn't seem to be a problem.
 
I agree, but the SCOTUS has already left it to the states, and both sides like to gerrymander in ways to maximize party wins.

That won't stop as long as the Government is so involved in the fortunes of private business. On the plus side, recent elections are showing that the idea of buying an election may be passe in the era of social media. I think the bigger worry is not money in politics, but access in politics. I think Facebook, Twitter and Google's propensity to filter in favor of one party is more damaging than money.

It's called the House of Representatives.

As long as you insist that it is a one party problem it will remain a problem.

Well, the irony here is that in your otherwise well considered arguments you remained mostly within your tribe.

Except for one point, it’s all aimed at both parties, show me anywhere, where Democrats engage in the same kind of clear and unrepentant voter suppression republicans do and you’ll change my mind immediately.
 
New York's race is getting tighter than anyone thought it could. Maybe an upset?

I think you are engaged in a bit of a fantasy here. Let me talk you back to reality as you seem to be looking for love in all the wrong places..... fivethirtyeight has Cuomo with a 99+% probability of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/

On the gradient of potential pickups, California is more likely to go 'R" than New York. In the composite, 538 has Cuomo up by 15.
 
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