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538 Launches their Senate Forecast - currently a 50/50 spilt likely

George50

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“Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)”

Here is the announcement article:


And here is the current forecast:



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
That's a bit depressing. I was hoping to see the Dems looking a ittle better, here.
 
“Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)”

Here is the announcement article:


And here is the current forecast:



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
So, you're trying to say that anything could happen.
 
That's a bit depressing. I was hoping to see the Dems looking a ittle better, here.
Nat Silver always hedges his bets. I suspect that it will be 50/50 or 51/49 , depending on the Joni Earnst election (greenfield has been slightly leading the last few polls). I would be thrilled if it got to be a larger margin from 52/48, but that's unlikely.

I wish to thank Martha McSally for making this all possible.
 
Nat Silver always hedges his bets. I suspect that it will be 50/50 or 51/49 , depending on the Joni Earnst election (greenfield has been slightly leading the last few polls). I would be thrilled if it got to be a larger margin from 52/48, but that's unlikely.

I wish to thank Martha McSally for making this all possible.
😊
 
“Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)”
It depends if the Democrats do a “Kavenaugh” on Trump’s SCOTUS pick. When they showed what kind of people they really were last time, It really stung them.
 
That's a bit depressing. I was hoping to see the Dems looking a ittle better, here.

I think this Supreme Court shenanigans the GOP senators are pulling will hurt them mightily and these numbers will be changing. This all exposes so brightly, what a bunch of characterless lying hypocrites they are. This is going to hurt the republicans in the senate.
 
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“Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)”

Here is the announcement article:


And here is the current forecast:



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Whoever is the VP will be busy breaking ties.
 
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