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538 Launches their Senate Forecast - currently a 50/50 spilt likely

George50

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“Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)”

Here is the announcement article:


And here is the current forecast:



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Chomsky

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That's a bit depressing. I was hoping to see the Dems looking a ittle better, here.
 

Moderate Right

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“Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)”

Here is the announcement article:


And here is the current forecast:



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So, you're trying to say that anything could happen.
 

RAMOSS

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That's a bit depressing. I was hoping to see the Dems looking a ittle better, here.
Nat Silver always hedges his bets. I suspect that it will be 50/50 or 51/49 , depending on the Joni Earnst election (greenfield has been slightly leading the last few polls). I would be thrilled if it got to be a larger margin from 52/48, but that's unlikely.

I wish to thank Martha McSally for making this all possible.
 

Chomsky

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Nat Silver always hedges his bets. I suspect that it will be 50/50 or 51/49 , depending on the Joni Earnst election (greenfield has been slightly leading the last few polls). I would be thrilled if it got to be a larger margin from 52/48, but that's unlikely.

I wish to thank Martha McSally for making this all possible.
😊
 

chuckiechan

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“Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)”
It depends if the Democrats do a “Kavenaugh” on Trump’s SCOTUS pick. When they showed what kind of people they really were last time, It really stung them.
 

poweRob

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That's a bit depressing. I was hoping to see the Dems looking a ittle better, here.

I think this Supreme Court shenanigans the GOP senators are pulling will hurt them mightily and these numbers will be changing. This all exposes so brightly, what a bunch of characterless lying hypocrites they are. This is going to hurt the republicans in the senate.
 
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MTAtech

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“Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)”

Here is the announcement article:


And here is the current forecast:



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Whoever is the VP will be busy breaking ties.
 
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