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538 announces Senate forecast

ClaraD said:
Colorado will definitely be a pick up for Democrats.
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As will Arizona and Maine. But Dems will lose a seat in Alabama. So one more seat will make 50. At this point, North Carolina and Iowa are the brightest spots for dem pick ups. While a few other states look better by the day. Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska, Mississippi, and the Ossoff race in Georgia.
 
poweRob said:
As will Arizona and Maine. But Dems will lose a seat in Alabama.
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yes, that is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will lose Alabama....there are some others that Repubs and Dems are neck and neck on...we still have a few weeks....Lindsey is taking a beating here...and I hope he loses...he needs to have his ego put in check.
 
Blue Donkey said:
I wish every Republican Senator who is up for re-election this year could lose.
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I don't want every Republican senator to lose...but there are a few on the list that I will take great pleasure in watching them lose on election night...among them is Cory Gardner....and I hope like you know what Lindsey Graham.
 
ClaraD said:
yes, that is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will lose Alabama....there are some others that Repubs and Dems are neck and neck on...we still have a few weeks....Lindsey is taking a beating here...and I hope he loses...he needs to have his ego put in check.
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His ****ing arrogance is off the charts. He speaks so matter-of-factly and then just pivots on a dime and acts like his seat is bulletproof no matter what he does.
 
poweRob said:
His ****ing arrogance is off the charts. He speaks so matter-of-factly and then just pivots on a dime and acts like his seat is bulletproof no matter what he does.
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there was a local newspaper article here yesterday or the day before, that I reveled in ...it said that Lindsey for the first time in his career is unnerved ...it referred to the protesters, the close polls and the unfavorable comments coming out...he is about to have a nervous breakdown....and I am betting that it will turn into a nuclear meltdown if he loses on Nov 3...that will be epic...one I will toast too.... I don't care if you are R or D....26 years is too long to hold office.
 
Puigb said:
Socially? The GOP has become very far right.

Fiscally? Well, that's another story...
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They will start worrying about the deficit come Jan 21st 2021 if Trump loses.
 
RAMOSS said:
They will start worrying about the deficit come Jan 21st 2021 if Trump loses.
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The Tea Party are dusting off their muskets as we speak.
 
Puigb said:
Socially? The GOP has become very far right.

Fiscally? Well, that's another story...
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Yeah..
extremes.jpg
I don't think it's really the republicans, who have shifted.
 
Dayton3 said:
How has the Republican Party "swung to the right"? Pretty sure that's simply a myth the Democrats and their allies in the media are driving.
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Then I suggest you go listen to some Ronald Reagan speeches. If he were alive today with his views, he would be condemned as a liberal and drummed out of the GOP. Yes, the republican party has swung way to the right.
 
Dayton3 said:
How? For at least the last 40 years (1980) the Republican Party has been against the nationwide right to an elective abortion. Against illegal immigration. Against societal acceptance of deviant sexuality.
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F00A4C51-C46A-4B09-9173-2C9ECFD72D2D.jpeg
 
ClaraD said:
I don't want every Republican senator to lose...but there are a few on the list that I will take great pleasure in watching them lose on election night...among them is Cory Gardner....and I hope like you know what Lindsey Graham.
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Is Corey Gardner really bad or just a member of the wrong party?
 
ClaraD said:
I never slandered Romney. I didn't slander McCain either, in fact my vote didn't go for McCain, it went for George W Bush...hmmm
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No body cares what *you* said.
The current democrat presidential nominee was literally saying Romney was going to lock blacks people in chains.
 
joko104 said:
If it is 50/50, Mitt Romney will mean it actually is 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.
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He votes his conscience, consistent with morality and obvious facts, so the Rs deem him a traitor to their party. Nice. I have no love at all for Romney, or religion, but he acts consistently with someone who feels he owes an obligation to a higher power to respect his principles. Most politicians (of both parties) do not. Give the man credit.
 
Dayton3 said:
How has the Republican Party "swung to the right"? Pretty sure that's simply a myth the Democrats and their allies in the media are driving.
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There are lots of things going both ways on this, so don't take me as presenting a full balanced picture. But if you want to know what factors would support saying the R party has moved right, there is lots of support. They used to take environmental effects seriously (see: Nixon); now, they simply dismiss all of them. They used to agree with reasonable gun control (see: prior NRA positions); now they just oppose any regulation of guns whatsoever. They used to support helping many immigrants become citizens (see: Reagan's views); now it's just anti-immigrant rabble-rousing. They used to oppose deficits (see: David Stockman; also: Bush Sr. raising taxes to pay for spending); now it's just tax cuts no matter what. And on and on.
 
George50 said:
Mitt Romney is one of the few Republicans left. The rest are right wing nut Trumpers.

The Republican Party has gone off the rails to the radical right. A centrist can’t even get through a primary today. Actual centrist Republicans like Mitt Romney have become outcasts. Just a few years ago Republicans were sane enough to nominate Mitt to be President. All those MAGA hats must give people a lobotomy.
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I'm guessing you were already saying this four or five years ago.
Anyway, I sure was, only now, in the last couple of years, it's gone critical mass.
 
skeptic llc said:
There are lots of things going both ways on this, so don't take me as presenting a full balanced picture. But if you want to know what factors would support saying the R party has moved right, there is lots of support. They used to take environmental effects seriously (see: Nixon); now, they simply dismiss all of them. They used to agree with reasonable gun control (see: prior NRA positions); now they just oppose any regulation of guns whatsoever. They used to support helping many immigrants become citizens (see: Reagan's views); now it's just anti-immigrant rabble-rousing. They used to oppose deficits (see: David Stockman; also: Bush Sr. raising taxes to pay for spending); now it's just tax cuts no matter what. And on and on.
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Well

1) Nixon was an outlier. Never a big Republican Party stalwart when it came to domestic policy. Mainly a die hard anti communist who dreamed of making a name for himself as a peacemaker because of his mommy issues.

2) Don't know about what constitutes "reasonable gun control".

3) Reagan was willing to grant partial amnesty for illegal immigrant in exchange for the Democrats agreeing to border restrictions which they failed to live up to.

4) Deficits are far from a "left/right" issue.
 
Dayton3 said:
Well

1) Nixon was an outlier. Never a big Republican Party stalwart when it came to domestic policy. Mainly a die hard anti communist who dreamed of making a name for himself as a peacemaker because of his mommy issues.

[He was a Republican president. No point to trying to re-write the past and say only people who mesh with your views count; this was an R who won his party's nomination, held high office, and was less extreme on many issues. That is evidence of a swing to the right, which was the question.]

2) Don't know about what constitutes "reasonable gun control". [Check old NRA positions, when they didn't oppose any gun regulation ever.]

3) Reagan was willing to grant partial amnesty for illegal immigrant in exchange for the Democrats agreeing to border restrictions which they failed to live up to. [Great! Are Rs still offering that deal, or have they swung to the right?]

4) Deficits are far from a "left/right" issue. [Respectfully disagree, *historically speaking*. Rs used to stand for fiscal responsibility, which I loved about them. Now they are willing to shred fiscal responsibility as long as it enriches the wealthiest of our society (which it does).]
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ClaraD said:
yeah it is definately looking that way...and apparently North Carolina...there is the 3 they needed, but they will likely lose Alabama, so they need one more.
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Plus: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina
Minus: Alabama

Plus: VP-Harris

Potential additional pickups: Iowa, Georgia and Montana plus South Carolina (wishful thinking)
 
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