OP.
@HikerGuy83. I appreciate the effort, but the article is three weeks old reporting May data. Newsworthy, okay, but it's been reported. Not really germane to a general political discussion, imo. What is there really to discuss? Inflation is up a couple ticks. Hasn't peaked yet. Really sucks. Here's Judy with the weather.
As to priorities, and to
@Perotista, here's a poll from yesterday.
A new poll finds a growing percentage of Americans calling out abortion or women’s rights as priorities for the government in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v.
apnews.com
The new poll, which included interviews conducted before and after the Supreme Court’s ruling, finds prioritization of the issues grew sharply following the decision...
...According to the poll, the percentage of women prioritizing abortion or women’s rights was already higher in interviews conducted before the ruling than six months ago, 21% vs. 9% in December; it swelled to 37% in the days after. Mentions grew sharply among men, too, but the growth was concentrated in the wake of the ruling, from 6% in interviews conducted before to 21% after.
Republicans shouldn't yet be counting their chickens. Anti-abortion voters have always prioritized the issue, many as one-issue voters. Pro-choice voters are energized more than ever, since the decision.
I’m not looking at abortion polls. What I’m concentrating on is the polls on who folks plan on voting for in November. I listed the pre-overturning numbers, 23 June for all to compare with the post-overturning numbers, today, 2 July. I’m election focused, I don’t care what people think of the ruling, I’m paying strict attention to who they plan on voting for. One can be pro-choice, oppose the ruling, but if one still votes GOP in November, I’d classify that as soft support or should I say soft opposition to the ruling. An example of soft opposition is someone who says, “I’d rather abortion be legal, but it doesn’t make my top 5 list of issues that I use to decide who to vote for in the midterms.” Until the numbers start to shift toward the democrats, I’d say a lot of those you point out are soft opposers. Here’s the numbers once again. You can have 90% of all Americans opposing the SCOTUS ruling overturning ROE. But if they’re not voting Democratic in November, that's soft opposition. If they’re not changing who they plan on voting for, the overturning of ROE isn’t all that important to them. The hard-core opposition comes from Democrats who’ll be voting democratic. Hard core pro-choicers are in my opinion already Democratic voters.
23 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.3-41.5, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.5 Republican
2 July 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.3-43.3, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.8 Republican
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/
The President’s overall job performance numbers.
23 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 39.6% approve, 55.8% disapprove
2 July 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 38.4% approve, 56.9% disapprove
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
Most important to the midterms is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats and the senate’s pure tossup states beginning 23 June 2022 to see the effect of the overturning of ROE.
23 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.
2 July – House 40 Democratic seats, 14 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.