24 May: Georgia + 11 other primaries to watch in Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota and Texas (LIVE Thread)

[Tender Branson]

Five states hold primary elections today, but it’s Georgia, with its busy slate of federal and state-level nomination contests, that is most on our minds. (You can read our preview of the other four states’ primaries here.) In total, 10 Georgia primaries have grabbed our attention, and in nearly all of them, the key question is once again whether the candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump, mostly in connection to his false claim that his narrow loss in Georgia’s 2020 presidential vote was fraudulent, will prevail. Trump has become involved in almost two-thirds of the GOP primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general, making Georgia his most endorsement-heavy state that’s voting today.

Yet Trump’s sway in Georgia may be limited. He’s endorsed seven non-incumbent Republican candidates across the six offices listed above, and while the five House incumbents he’s backed are likely to win, it’s unclear how many of the others will prove victorious outside of the Senate primary. This isn’t to say Trump’s influence is waning — remember that some of the GOP contenders he didn’t endorse are still pro-Trump — but it’s possible Georgia might be Trump’s most loss-filled state yet, which may discourage him from trying to throw his weight around in future primaries.

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Races to watch: U.S. Senate, 2nd Congressional District, 6th Congressional District, 7th Congressional District, 10th Congressional District, 14th Congressional District, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

Georgia’s Primaries May Be Trump’s Biggest Test Yet

What to watch for in the Georgia primaries.

fivethirtyeight.com

...

Tuesday brings the next big batch of primaries, as voters head to the polls in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia — plus we get a little bonus electoral action thanks to several runoffs in Texas and a special election in Minnesota. And thanks to former President Donald Trump’s attempt to dislodge multiple incumbents who refused to overturn the 2020 election, Georgia is the election on everyone’s mind this week, but there are even more races of note in the other four states — 11, to be exact. Here’s the lowdown on each of them.

11 Primaries To Watch In Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota And Texas

Tuesday brings the next big batch of primaries, as voters head to the polls in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia — plus we get a little bonus electoral action thank…

fivethirtyeight.com

Post your predictions here, plus election day updates and results.

 

[Tender Branson]

The final Trafalgar poll out for Georgia shows Trump-endorsed Perdue down 14 points against incumbent Governor Kemp:

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GA-GOP-Primary-Poll-Report-0524.pdf

In Alabama, Trafalgar has Katie Britt ahead by 9 in the US Senate Republican primary:

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/TRF-AL-GOP-0523-Poll-Report.pdf

It is a crowded race there and Alabama has runoffs if nobody reaches 50%, so she probably has to get through a runoff with Mo Brooks or so later.

In Georgia, it would be shocking if Trump-endorsed Perdue forces Governor Kemp into a runoff after all.

 

[Tender Branson]

In the Georgia US Senate primaries, nothing to see:

Both Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) have nothing to worry, Warnock will get 90%+ in his primary, Walker 60% or 70%.

In the AL Governor race, incumbent Governor Kay Ivey (R) has some primary competition - but should barely avoid a runoff. The Democrats are unknown, so November will see an easy R victory.

In Arkansas, both the R Senate and R Governor primaries are easy wins for Sen. Boozeman and Sarah Huckabee-Sanders for Governor.

In Minnesota, there's a primary for a special election for US House in a Republican district.

 

[Chomsky]

I suppose I'll just drop my OP from my own thread in 'General Discussion', here. Not to siphon-off posters to my thread, but because this post well encapsulates my thoughts on this thread's OP!

Trump heads for big rebuke in Tuesday’s elections

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has been leading in primary polls against Trump-endorsed David Perdue.

www.politico.com

--

With the Summer of the George Floyd demonstrations, followed by the recent Senatorial run-off Trump rebuff, I've taken a sharp interest in Georgia!

Despite all its woes throughout history and now, I've often had an an affinity for the South, even as I'm cognizant and averse to all of its - well - woes! Maybe call it a misplaced romanticism? I don't know.

But with the George Floyd & Rayshard Brooks protests in Atlanta, I saw protesters that for the most part were calm and lawful. And crazy as it sounds, most of the protestors were dressed - in my opinion - reasonably 'clean-cut', for lack of better words. And they seemed to present themselves on-camera in a sensible & reasonable manner. In short, those I saw interviewed in the streets didn't seem too different than those I might want as neighbors. This was in stark contrast to many of the other concurrent protests taking place in many other cities across the nation. It actually caught my attention, crazy as it sounds.

Then, Georgia flipped Blue in the soon-after Presidential election. That really caught my attention! And then soon after, both Senatorial seats flipped Blue! Wow! The flips weren't waves, but rather they were all close calls indicating a nearly evenly divided electorate.

For some crazy reason, I find this all appealing. Not in partisan terms, as in "Yea! Yea! Yea, for my side!". But rather, it appeals in terms of a Deep South state, previously fully entrenched in all we associate with the Deep South, now seemingly becoming a more moderate state, but not to the point of it being a 'bleeding heart liberal' state like some others. To be able to walk down the street or road and experience both sides of the equation, sounds pretty darn interesting. It also would be interesting to see what appears to be the emergence of more moderate Liberalism, if indeed that's what I am seeing. That, would be highly interesting. Most interesting, might be seeing how this all co-exists!

So anyway, my eyes will be on tonight's Georgia results, as a rebuke of Trump again will only further my interest in the place.

I don't know what's going-on in Georgia, but I think I've really got get my arse down there to see for my self!

Thanks for reading!

 

[Tender Branson]

Pictures of people voting in Georgia:

 

[Chomsky]

Five states hold primary elections today, but it’s Georgia, with its busy slate of federal and state-level nomination contests, that is most on our minds. (You can read our preview of the other four states’ primaries here.) In total, 10 Georgia primaries have grabbed our attention, and in nearly all of them, the key question is once again whether the candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump, mostly in connection to his false claim that his narrow loss in Georgia’s 2020 presidential vote was fraudulent, will prevail. Trump has become involved in almost two-thirds of the GOP primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general, making Georgia his most endorsement-heavy state that’s voting today.

Yet Trump’s sway in Georgia may be limited. He’s endorsed seven non-incumbent Republican candidates across the six offices listed above, and while the five House incumbents he’s backed are likely to win, it’s unclear how many of the others will prove victorious outside of the Senate primary. This isn’t to say Trump’s influence is waning — remember that some of the GOP contenders he didn’t endorse are still pro-Trump — but it’s possible Georgia might be Trump’s most loss-filled state yet, which may discourage him from trying to throw his weight around in future primaries.

---

Races to watch: U.S. Senate, 2nd Congressional District, 6th Congressional District, 7th Congressional District, 10th Congressional District, 14th Congressional District, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

Georgia’s Primaries May Be Trump’s Biggest Test Yet

What to watch for in the Georgia primaries.

fivethirtyeight.com

...

Tuesday brings the next big batch of primaries, as voters head to the polls in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia — plus we get a little bonus electoral action thanks to several runoffs in Texas and a special election in Minnesota. And thanks to former President Donald Trump’s attempt to dislodge multiple incumbents who refused to overturn the 2020 election, Georgia is the election on everyone’s mind this week, but there are even more races of note in the other four states — 11, to be exact. Here’s the lowdown on each of them.

11 Primaries To Watch In Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota And Texas

Tuesday brings the next big batch of primaries, as voters head to the polls in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia — plus we get a little bonus electoral action thank…

fivethirtyeight.com

Post your predictions here, plus election day updates and results.

I'm predicting Kemp takes the primary, and quite likely takes the general, but I could be wrong in the general.

I believe Georgia, in majority terms, may be done with Trump, but not done with the Republican Party or Conservatism.

But my main facet of interest is in what type of Liberalism has beaten Georgian Conservatism in its home. Because, I find it fascinating!

 

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks pretty good in Georgia and Alabama, especially on the Republican sides, because that's where the action is.

The Democratic primaries are not competitive, in a non-Democratic year.

So, no surprise that R turnout is much higher ...

 

[Callen]

Pictures of people voting in Georgia:

Interesting the number of masks....

 

[Chomsky]

Pictures of people voting in Georgia:

I just can't explain it, but Georgians so often look 'clean-cut' to me!

My city undoubtedly has quite an edge, in comparison.

 

[Tender Branson]

I'm predicting Kemp takes the primary, and quite likely takes the general, but I could be wrong in the general.

You are not wrong:

Kemp will beat Stacey Abrams (D) by 10 or so in November.

It won't be close.

Just recently, Abrams said that Georgia is "the worst state to live in".

Republicans will use this gaffe in ads nonstop.

 

[Chomsky]

Interesting the number of masks....

Hm, true.

Might be age demographics. Older folk are more prevalent in using masks where I'm at, too.

 

[Chomsky]

You are not wrong:

Kemp will beat Stacey Abrams (D) by 10 or so in November.

It won't be close.

Just recently, Abrams said that Georgia is "the worst state to live in".

Republicans will use this gaffe in ads nonstop.

Thanks.

I won't go as far as to proclaim a 10pt spread. In fact, I don't feel fully confident in even proclaiming a Kemp win. But my gut says put my money on him, if I have to.

 

[Chomsky]

Turnout looks pretty good in Georgia and Alabama, especially on the Republican sides, because that's where the action is.

The Democratic primaries are not competitive, in a non-Democratic year.

So, no surprise that R turnout is much higher ...

Only thing is - and I say this as of yet not having followed the day in the media - I can't say who the large turn-out benefits?

Do you have any insight into this?

 

[Tender Branson]

Only thing is - and I say this as of yet not having followed the day in the media - I can't say who the large turn-out benefits?

Do you have any insight into this?

A large turnout can mean 3 different things in the Republican primary:

# the pro-Trump crowd turns out for Perdue & Co. - meaning Kemp and Perdue are close, not 10-20% apart.

# the crowd who has enough of Trump turns out, meaning Gov. Kemp gets 60%+

# both camps turn out, which means overall R enthusiasm is high - a terrible sign for Democrats and their chances in November.

 

[Callen]

Might be age demographics. Older folk are more prevalent in using masks where I'm at, too.

The two in the first pic are not old. I am noticing a resurgence of mask wearing here. I still wear mine in enclosed public spaces...but yeah I'm old!

 

[Callen]

A large turnout can mean 3 different things in the Republican primary:

# the pro-Trump crowd turns out for Perdue & Co. - meaning Kemp and Perdue are close, not 10-20% apart.

# the crowd who has enough of Trump turns out, meaning Gov. Kemp gets 60%+

# both camps turn out, which means overall R enthusiasm is high - a terrible sign for Democrats and their chances in November.

There is another thing it can mean. Voting in GA primaries is not tied to party affiliation. Anyone can request either ballot. Given Abrams and Warnock are shoe-ins it could be Dems voting in the GOP primary for who they see as the weaker candidates. They are already reporting a large number of cross over voters. A large turnout in the GOP primary may be driven by Dems.

 

[Chomsky]

A large turnout can mean 3 different things in the Republican primary:

# the pro-Trump crowd turns out for Perdue & Co. - meaning Kemp and Perdue are close, not 10-20% apart.

# the crowd who has enough of Trump turns out, meaning Gov. Kemp gets 60%+

# both camps turn out, which means overall R enthusiasm is high - a terrible sign for Democrats and their chances in November.

Let's not be so definitive!

 

[Tender Branson]

There is another thing it can mean. Voting in GA primaries is not tied to party affiliation. Anyone can request either ballot. Given Abrams and Warnock are shoe-ins it could be Dems voting in the GOP primary for who they see as the weaker candidates. They are already rep[orting a large number of cross over voters. A large turnout in the GOP primary may be driven by Dems.

That is usually not the case. In open primaries, no more than 5-10% of the voters are from the other party.

So, in other words, 90%+ of voters in the R primary are actual Republicans. And Democrats voting in such primaries are often registered Democrats who are very conservative and only Ds in name only.

Party cross-over to meddle in the opposition primaries is therefore very, very rare.

 

[Chomsky]

The two in the first pic are not old. I am noticing a resurgence of mask wearing here. I still wear mine in enclosed public spaces...but yeah I'm old!

I disagree.

Every mask-wearer in the pics appears to be 50 or older, except for the Asian women. The Asian women is wearing a mask because Asian!

Remember, I stated 'older', not 'old'.

 

[Chomsky]

That is usually not the case. In open primaries, no more than 5-10% of the voters are from the other party.

So, in other words, 90%+ of voters in the R primary are actual Republicans. And Democrats voting in such primaries are often registered Democrats who are very conservative and only Ds in name only.

Party cross-over to meddle in the opposition primaries is therefore very, very rare.

I suspect you are right, in this.

But you wouldn't know it by the arguments being made in the thread I started!

 

[Callen]

That is usually not the case. In open primaries, no more than 5-10% of the voters are from the other party.

So, in other words, 90%+ of voters in the R primary are actual Republicans. And Democrats voting in such primaries are often registered Democrats who are very conservative and only Ds in name only.

Party cross-over to meddle in the opposition primaries is therefore very, very rare.

I agree it isn't the usual pattern but the GA primary isn't a usual primary. There is literally no reason to bring Dem voters to the primary polls in terms of the top of the ticket yet there are record turnouts on both sides. I just offer it as another scenario.

ETA: One does not declare any party affiliation when they register to vote in GA.

 

[yankintx]

That is usually not the case. In open primaries, no more than 5-10% of the voters are from the other party.

So, in other words, 90%+ of voters in the R primary are actual Republicans. And Democrats voting in such primaries are often registered Democrats who are very conservative and only Ds in name only.

Party cross-over to meddle in the opposition primaries is therefore very, very rare.

Its more common than you think. I have voted in open primaries, often just to cause chaos.

 

[Chomsky]

Interesting though, as a follow-up to recent posts:

Can we determine party affiliation turnout, by mask wearing?

Can mask wearing give us further insight into Trump support at the polls?

--

Alright, just messin' around.

It did occur to me these are the kind of questions we sometimes see on 538, though. Election days have this effect on me. I think I may need to calm down my inner-geek!

 

[Callen]

The only thing we know about the GA primary is how many people chose a Dem ballot or chose a GOP ballot. Interesting to me is that historically Republicans don't vote early in the numbers Dems do.......yet look at those early voting numbers. By far more choose GOP ballots than chose Dem ballots. It will be interesting to see what voter turnout is today.

 

[Chomsky]

The only thing we know about the GA primary is how many people chose a Dem ballot or chose a GOP ballot. Interesting to me is that historically Republicans don't vote early in the numbers Dems do.......yet look at those early voting numbers. By far more choose GOP ballots than chose Dem ballots. It will be interesting to see what voter turnout is today.

Part of that is Abram's running unopposed.