2022 U.S. Senate race in Washington state tightens: Sen. Patty Murray (D) holds steady as Tiffany Smiley (R) gains ground

[Tender Branson]

The 2022 contest for United States Senate in Washington State is tightening a bit, as Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley gains ground for the first time while Democratic incumbent Patty Murray holds steady, the Northwest Progressive Institute’s latest poll of the Washington State electorate indicates.

50% of 700 likely 2022 voters surveyed yesterday and today by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for NPI said they would vote for Murray if the election were being held today, while 41% said they would vote for Smiley. 9% were not sure.

41% is Smiley’s best showing so far this cycle in our polling, as well as her best showing so far in all of the public polling we know of. In two surveys conducted for NPI last year, in May and November of 2021, Smiley got 37% both times.

Murray remains ahead by a spread larger than the margin of error, has a majority of support from this poll’s respondents, and is still favored to win this November.

But our data suggests that Smiley is becoming more competitive. Her base of voters has grown and the percentage of voters who aren’t sure has shrunk.

The spread between the two candidates was sixteen points last May, thirteen points in November, and it’s nine points now.

2022 U.S. Senate race tightens: Patty Murray holds steady as Tiffany Smiley gains ground

50% of 700 likely 2022 voters surveyed in mid-February 2022 by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for NPI said they would vote for Murray if the election were being held today, while 41% said they would vote for Smiley. 9% were not sure.

www.nwprogressive.org

Worryingly tightening.

Sen. Murray’s biggest problem is that she’s in the US Senate very long already and even though WA voters are left-leaning, it could be a really close race this year because of D fatigue and a good R climate.

 

[Tender Branson]

This is roughly for Dems what Florida is for the Republicans.

Both states have semi-popular incumbents with Murray and Rubio, but also tough but not-yet-well-known challengers who are gaining ground as more voters get to know them (Smiley, Demings).

 

[Common Sense 1]

Washington is a democratic state.
Murray should easily win!

 

[Tender Branson]

Washington is a democratic state.
Murray should easily win!

So was New Jersey last year, a state Biden won by 16, but which the D governor only won by 3 points.

WA voted Biden by about 20 points, so we’ll see if Smiley can make any further inroads the next months …

 

[Tender Branson]

Even if Murray only wins by 9, instead of the usual 15-20 points, it would be a horrible swing away from the Dems to the Reps that we have already seen in the Virginia and New Jersey elections last year.

It would spell massive trouble for Dems in the close Senate races this year, such as Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada. Even a 5% swing away in those would result in R victories there.

 

[Tender Branson]

Washington has a non-partisan „jungle primary“ in August.

It means any candidate who files until May will run in this primary, regardless of party affiliation.

The top 2 will move on to the general election in November.

Because only Murray and Smiley have filed so far, this primary will already give us a certain clue where this race is heading (even though turnout will be much higher in November).

 

[Gatsby]

So was New Jersey last year, a state Biden won by 16, but which the D governor only won by 3 points.

People are much more willing to cross party lines to elect a governor than a senator, because electing a senator of the opposing party will inherently empower that party's leadership at the federal level, even if the candidate herself doesn't tow the party line on some particular issue.

There are many US states with governors of the "wrong" party, given their natural partisan tilt. There are only a few US states with senators from the "wrong" party.

WA voted Biden by about 20 points, so we’ll see if Smiley can make any further inroads the next months …

I would be very surprised if the Senate race in Washington is anything short of a Democratic landslide.

 

[TheParser]

Great news!

More and more liberals are finally starting to question whether they may have been mistaken when it comes to certain policies.

Some of the disgraceful violence in Seattle, for example, may have been responsible for this introspection.

But -- as most liberals have said -- the Republicans should NOT celebrate yet. Liberalism is firmly entrenched in Washington, and it will take a bit longer before most voters realize that it's time for a change.

 

[Tender Branson]

Great news!

More and more liberals are finally starting to question whether they may have been mistaken when it comes to certain policies.

Some of the disgraceful violence in Seattle, for example, may have been responsible for this introspection.

But -- as most liberals have said -- the Republicans should NOT celebrate yet. Liberalism is firmly entrenched in Washington, and it will take a bit longer before most voters realize that it's time for a change.

You got something wrong there:

Homicides in major American cities ticked up in 2021, with a 5% increase from 2020 and a 44% increase over 2019, according to a new analysis of crime trends released Tuesday by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ).

The study drew on crime data from 22 cities nationwide — including Atlanta, Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago, Denver, Memphis, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia — and found an additional 218 murders last year, compared to 2020. And while the overall increase in the homicide rate slowed, murder rates in St. Petersburg, Florida, (108%) and Austin (86%) skyrocketed, while Washington, D.C., (16%) also recorded a notable increase.

Six of the 22 cities saw their murder rates drop, however, with sizeable dips in Seattle (25%) and Omaha (24%).

Homicides in major American cities increased in 2021, new study finds

"In 2021, we saw a record fraction of homicides committed with a firearm," the author of the study said.

www.cbsnews.com

Murders decreased by a quarter last year in Seattle, while it went up in other cities.

 

[TheParser]

Murders decreased by a quarter last year in Seattle, while it went up in other cities.

Thanks.

Besides murders, there are many other kinds of violent crime in this country.

And those crimes have been occurring in Seattle since 2020 (the first year of the horrible COVID tragedy),

Some people in Washington are fed up with many bleeding heart policies of the Democratic Party.

But probably not enough -- yet!

 

[Peacenik]

Washington is a democratic state.
Murray should easily win!

The problem being that Biden was hired as a fall guy scapegoat. Our favorite whipping boy. He is polling low, so it's dragging Democrats down. Credit to the 'liberal media,' Sens Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema.

 

[Common Sense 1]

Even if Murray only wins by 9, instead of the usual 15-20 points, it would be a horrible swing away from the Dems to the Reps that we have already seen in the Virginia and New Jersey elections last year.

It would spell massive trouble for Dems in the close Senate races this year, such as Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada. Even a 5% swing away in those would result in R victories there.

We know 2022 elections are going to be a disaster for the Democrats. But there is good reason for that. What a disaster the democrats have been over the last year.

30 democrats will retired from congress this year.

 

[Common Sense 1]

The problem being that Biden was hired as a fall guy scapegoat. Our favorite whipping boy. He is polling low, so it's dragging Democrats down. Credit to the 'liberal media,' Sens Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema.

The only reason Biden is president is the liberal press! The Biden administration is just a hot mess.

 

[Peacenik]

The only reason Biden is president is the liberal press! The Biden administration is just a hot mess.

'Liberal press!' Ha Ha hee hee hee! Don't make me laugh. Been hearing that ever since the Powell Memorandum instructed conservatives to make the false claim so that big money corporate values could be more easily installed into the minds of right wingers.

President Biden was elected because he is not Trump, and he was of acceptable enough positions and mutual respect. The election was Trump's to lose, which he did handily by totally screwing up the pandemic response. Besides, America needed a leader that was all about America rather than himself.

 

[The AntiDonald]

The only reason Biden is president is the liberal press! The Biden administration is just a hot mess.

And the only reason that Trump was president was Fox news and Vladimir Putin. So back at you.

 

[Roadvirus]

The 2022 contest for United States Senate in Washington State is tightening a bit, as Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley gains ground for the first time while Democratic incumbent Patty Murray holds steady, the Northwest Progressive Institute’s latest poll of the Washington State electorate indicates.

50% of 700 likely 2022 voters surveyed yesterday and today by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for NPI said they would vote for Murray if the election were being held today, while 41% said they would vote for Smiley. 9% were not sure.

41% is Smiley’s best showing so far this cycle in our polling, as well as her best showing so far in all of the public polling we know of. In two surveys conducted for NPI last year, in May and November of 2021, Smiley got 37% both times.

Murray remains ahead by a spread larger than the margin of error, has a majority of support from this poll’s respondents, and is still favored to win this November.

But our data suggests that Smiley is becoming more competitive. Her base of voters has grown and the percentage of voters who aren’t sure has shrunk.

The spread between the two candidates was sixteen points last May, thirteen points in November, and it’s nine points now.

2022 U.S. Senate race tightens: Patty Murray holds steady as Tiffany Smiley gains ground

50% of 700 likely 2022 voters surveyed in mid-February 2022 by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for NPI said they would vote for Murray if the election were being held today, while 41% said they would vote for Smiley. 9% were not sure.

www.nwprogressive.org

Worryingly tightening.

Sen. Murray’s biggest problem is that she’s in the US Senate very long already and even though WA voters are left-leaning, it could be a really close race this year because of D fatigue and a good R climate.

Murray

The fracking Osama Bin Laden admirer.