2019 Is 2nd Hottest Year On Record, Hottest Ocean Temps On Record - NOAA / NASA / UAH / RSS Edition

[Visbek]

Surprise! Or, not. NOAA has also confirmed that 2019 is the 2nd hottest year on record, and that the 2010s was the hottest decade on record. 2014 through 2019 are six of the hottest years on record. As a reminder, NOAA tracks both land and ocean temperatures, with a baseline of 1901-2000. 2019 clocked in at 0.95C. Ocean temperatures hit a record.

UAH and RSS, which measure the lowest 8km of the atmosphere (but not the surface or oceans) will put 2019 as either 2nd or 3rd hottest since 1979(when satellite measurements started).

As Scientific American writes: The near-record global warmth in 2019 is all the more remarkable since it occurred during the minimum of the weakest solar cycle in 100+ years, and during a year without a strong El Nino (though a weak El Nino was present in the first half of 2019, ending in July). Record-warm global temperatures typically occur during strong El Nino events, and when the solar cycle is near its maximum. The near-record warmth of 2019 is thus a testament to how greatly human-caused global warming is impacting the planet.


Yes, everyone ought to know this means the instrumental temperature record period (since 1880). Yes, it matters. Yes, we see the effects. Yes, the deniers should shut up (even though we know they won't).

NOAA:
Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

SciAm:
Earth Had Its Second Warmest Year in Recorded History in 2019 - Scientific American Blog Network

NYT:
2019 Was the Second-Hottest Year Ever, Closing Out the Warmest Decade - The New York Times

 

[Phys251]

Surprise! Or, not. NOAA has also confirmed that 2019 is the 2nd hottest year on record, and that the 2010s was the hottest decade on record. 2014 through 2019 are six of the hottest years on record. As a reminder, NOAA tracks both land and ocean temperatures, with a baseline of 1901-2000. 2019 clocked in at 0.95C. Ocean temperatures hit a record.

UAH and RSS, which measure the lowest 8km of the atmosphere (but not the surface or oceans) will put 2019 as either 2nd or 3rd hottest since 1979(when satellite measurements started).

As Scientific American writes: The near-record global warmth in 2019 is all the more remarkable since it occurred during the minimum of the weakest solar cycle in 100+ years, and during a year without a strong El Nino (though a weak El Nino was present in the first half of 2019, ending in July). Record-warm global temperatures typically occur during strong El Nino events, and when the solar cycle is near its maximum. The near-record warmth of 2019 is thus a testament to how greatly human-caused global warming is impacting the planet.


Yes, everyone ought to know this means the instrumental temperature record period (since 1880). Yes, it matters. Yes, we see the effects. Yes, the deniers should shut up (even though we know they won't).

NOAA:
Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

SciAm:
Earth Had Its Second Warmest Year in Recorded History in 2019 - Scientific American Blog Network

NYT:
2019 Was the Second-Hottest Year Ever, Closing Out the Warmest Decade - The New York Times

BuT nAtUrAl cYcLeS :roll:

 

[HumblePi]

I don't know about anyone else, but speaking as someone that lives in the cold Northeast, we've had several days of temperatures in the 60's. I planted nearly 200 tulip bulbs last Sept.and they're beginning to come up through the dirt. Our normal temperatures in January should be in the 30's (if we're lucky) and frequently below zero.

This is not normal

 

[Jack Hays]

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[h=1]While NOAA/NASA claims 2019 as the “second warmest year ever”, other data shows 2019 cooler than 2005 for USA.[/h][FONT=&quot]Today, at the big 100 year anniversary shindig of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) there was a press release session that featured NOAA and NASA GISS talking about how their climate data says that the world in 2019 was the second warmest ever. Here is their slideshow presentation, released today: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/20200115.pdf In my opinion, the…
Continue reading →
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[Jack Hays]

[h=2]New 80-Year Deep-Ocean Temperature Dataset Compared to a 1D Climate Model[/h]January 15th, 2020The increasing global ocean heat content (OHC) is often pointed to as the most quantitative way to monitor long-term changes in the global energy balance, which is believed to have been altered by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The challenge is that long-term temperature changes in the ocean below the top hundred meters or so become exceedingly small and difficult to measure. The newer network of Argo floats since the early 2000s has improved global coverage dramatically.
A new Cheng et al. (2020) paper describing record warm ocean temperatures in 2019 has been discussed by Willis Eschenbach who correctly reminds us that such “record setting” changes in the 0-2000 m ocean heat content (reported in Zettajoules, which is 10^^21 Joules) amount to exceedingly small temperature changes. I calculate from their data that 2019 was only 0.004 deg. C warmer than 2018. . . .

 

[Jack Hays]

1D Model of Global SST Shows 40% of Warming Since 1979 Due to Early Volcanic Cooling

January 14th, 2020In 2017, Christy & McNider published a study where they estimated and removed the volcanic effects from our UAH lower tropospheric (LT) temperature record, finding that 38% of the post-1979 warming trend was due to volcanic cooling early in the record. . . .


Fig. 1. 1D model simulation of global (60N-60S) average sea surface temperature departures from assumed energy equilibrium (in 1765), with and without the RCP6 volcanic radiative forcings included.The results show that 41% of the ocean warming in the model was simply due to the two major volcanoes early in the record. This is in good agreement with the 38% estimate from the Christy & McNider study. . . .

 

[Jack Hays]

[h=2]Weak El Nino Conditions Help Explain Recent Global Warmth[/h]January 13th, 2020The continuing global-average warmth over the last year has caused a few people to ask for my opinion regarding potential explanations. So, I updated the 1D energy budget model I described a couple years ago here with the most recent Multivariate ENSO Index (MEIv2) data. The model is initialized in the year 1765, has two ocean layers, and is forced with the RCP6 radiative forcing scenario and the history of El Nino and La Nina activity since the late 1800s.
The result shows that the global-average (60N-60S) ocean sea surface temperature (SST) data in recent months are well explained as a reflection of continuing weak El Nino conditions, on top of a long-term warming trend.
Fig. 1. 1D model of global ocean temperatures compared to observations. The model is forced with the RCP6 radiative forcing scenario (increasing CO2, volcanoes, anthropogenic aerosols, etc.) and the observed history of El Nino and La Nina since the late 1800s. The observations are monthly running 3-month averages and are offset with a single bias to match the model temperatures, which are departures from assumed energy equilibrium in 1765. . . .

 

[Jack Hays]

UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2019: +0.56 deg. C

January 3rd, 20202019 was the third warmest year (+0.44 deg. C) in the 41 year satellite record, after 2016 (+0.52 deg. C) and 1998 (+0.48 deg. C).
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2019 was +0.56 deg. C, statistically unchanged from the November value of +0.55 deg. C.
The yearly rankings over the 41-year satellite-based temperature record shows 2019 as the third warmest, behind 2016 and 1998.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land). . . .

 

[Jack Hays]

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[h=1]The Ocean Warms By A Whole Little[/h][FONT=&quot]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [see update at the end] How much is a “Whole Little”? Well, it’s like a whole lot, only much, much smaller. There’s a new paper out. As usual, it has a whole bunch of authors, fourteen to be precise. My rule of thumb is that “The quality of research varies…
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1 day ago January 14, 2020 in Climate News, Ocean Temperatures.

 

[Dans La Lune]

The world is on fire. Everyone grab a rake.

 

[Jack Hays]

New 80-Year Deep-Ocean Temperature Dataset Compared to a 1D Climate Model

January 15th, 2020The increasing global ocean heat content (OHC) is often pointed to as the most quantitative way to monitor long-term changes in the global energy balance, which is believed to have been altered by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The challenge is that long-term temperature changes in the ocean below the top hundred meters or so become exceedingly small and difficult to measure. The newer network of Argo floats since the early 2000s has improved global coverage dramatically.
A new Cheng et al. (2020) paper describing record warm ocean temperatures in 2019 has been discussed by Willis Eschenbach who correctly reminds us that such “record setting” changes in the 0-2000 m ocean heat content (reported in Zettajoules, which is 10^^21 Joules) amount to exceedingly small temperature changes. I calculate from their data that 2019 was only 0.004 deg. C warmer than 2018. . . .

My conclusion is that the observed trends in both surface and deep-layer temperature in the global oceans correspond to low climate sensitivity, only about 50% of what IPCC climate models produce. This is the same conclusion as Lewis & Curry made using similar energy budget considerations, but applied to two different averaging periods about 100 years apart rather than (as I have done) in a time-dependent forcing-feedback model.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Surprise! Or, not. NOAA has also confirmed that 2019 is the 2nd hottest year on record, and that the 2010s was the hottest decade on record. 2014 through 2019 are six of the hottest years on record. As a reminder, NOAA tracks both land and ocean temperatures, with a baseline of 1901-2000. 2019 clocked in at 0.95C. Ocean temperatures hit a record.

UAH and RSS, which measure the lowest 8km of the atmosphere (but not the surface or oceans) will put 2019 as either 2nd or 3rd hottest since 1979(when satellite measurements started).

As Scientific American writes: The near-record global warmth in 2019 is all the more remarkable since it occurred during the minimum of the weakest solar cycle in 100+ years, and during a year without a strong El Nino (though a weak El Nino was present in the first half of 2019, ending in July). Record-warm global temperatures typically occur during strong El Nino events, and when the solar cycle is near its maximum. The near-record warmth of 2019 is thus a testament to how greatly human-caused global warming is impacting the planet.


Yes, everyone ought to know this means the instrumental temperature record period (since 1880). Yes, it matters. Yes, we see the effects. Yes, the deniers should shut up (even though we know they won't).

NOAA:
Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

SciAm:
Earth Had Its Second Warmest Year in Recorded History in 2019 - Scientific American Blog Network

NYT:
2019 Was the Second-Hottest Year Ever, Closing Out the Warmest Decade - The New York Times

Why would it be a surprise?

There are several reasons to see continued higher and higher temperatures, some of which, you and others on your side completely ignore.

 

[Jack Hays]

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[h=1]The Megacities Are Cooking[/h][FONT=&quot]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the phenomenon known as the “Urban Heat Island” effect, or UHI. Cities tend to trap heat due to the amount of black pavement and concrete sidewalks, the narrow canyons between buildings that slow down the wind, and the sides of the buildings reflecting sunlight downwards.…
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[Sunsettommy]

[FONT="][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/16/the-cities-are-cooking/"]

[/URL][/FONT]
[h=1]The Megacities Are Cooking[/h][FONT="][FONT=inherit]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the phenomenon known as the “Urban Heat Island” effect, or UHI. Cities tend to trap heat due to the amount of black pavement and concrete sidewalks, the narrow canyons between buildings that slow down the wind, and the sides of the buildings reflecting sunlight downwards.…[/FONT]
[FONT=inherit][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/16/the-cities-are-cooking/"]Continue reading →[/URL][/FONT]
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I see it all the time in my region, it is ALWAYS cooler when I leave the cities, up to 7 degrees cooler in just 12 miles travel out of Pasco Washington, when I do some stargazing.

UHI is real and under counted all the time.

 

[Lord of Planar]

I see it all the time in my region, it is ALWAYS cooler when I leave the cities, up to 7 degrees cooler in just 12 miles travel out of Pasco Washington, when I do some stargazing.

UHI is real and under counted all the time.

And...

Affecting meteorological stations showing warmer and warmer over the years as populations, densities, etc. increase.

 

[Sunsettommy]

And...

Affecting meteorological stations showing warmer and warmer over the years as populations, densities, etc. increase.

The "official" temperature station is at the Tri-Cities Airport, another one used by KEPR news in Pasco has their temperature staion on the Southwest corner of the building.

:lol:

The Valid one is never used for the region, the Hanford weather station is properly sited and always shows a cooler temperature.

 

[Lord of Planar]

The "official" temperature station is at the Tri-Cities Airport, another one used by KEPR news in Pasco has their temperature staion on the Southwest corner of the building.

:lol:

The Valid one is never used for the region, the Hanford weather station is properly sited and always shows a cooler temperature.

No wonder cites keep having record highs, huh...

 

[Deuce]

[FONT="][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/15/while-noaa-nasa-claims-2019-as-the-second-warmest-year-ever-other-data-shows-2019-cooler-than-2005-for-usa/"]

[/URL][/FONT]
[h=1]While NOAA/NASA claims 2019 as the “second warmest year ever”, other data shows 2019 cooler than 2005 for USA.[/h][FONT="][FONT=inherit]Today, at the big 100 year anniversary shindig of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) there was a press release session that featured NOAA and NASA GISS talking about how their climate data says that the world in 2019 was the second warmest ever. Here is their slideshow presentation, released today: [url]https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/20200115.pdf[/url] In my opinion, the…[/FONT]
[FONT=inherit][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/15/while-noaa-nasa-claims-2019-as-the-second-warmest-year-ever-other-data-shows-2019-cooler-than-2005-for-usa/"]Continue reading →[/URL][/FONT]
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I like that the headline here is implying some kind of discrepancy, and is hoping that the reader is too stupid to understand the difference between a global temperature average and one specific to the US.

 

[Jack Hays]

I like that the headline here is implying some kind of discrepancy, and is hoping that the reader is too stupid to understand the difference between a global temperature average and one specific to the US.

Nope. Just a data point.

 

[Deuce]

Nope. Just a data point.

They're pushing a narrative with deceptive phrasing. It's undeniable. They're attempting to imply that the "other data" opposes the idea that 2019 was the second hottest year on record. The "other data" does not.

2019 was the second hottest year on record. It's not a "claim," it's fact, and the "other data" mentioned is apples to oranges. Irrelevant.

 

[Jack Hays]

They're pushing a narrative with deceptive phrasing. It's undeniable. They're attempting to imply that the "other data" opposes the idea that 2019 was the second hottest year on record. The "other data" does not.

2019 was the second hottest year on record. It's not a "claim," it's fact, and the "other data" mentioned is apples to oranges. Irrelevant.

Only deceptive to the weak-minded. Congratulations.

 

[Deuce]

Only deceptive to the weak-minded. Congratulations.

Correct, the audience this is aimed at is decidedly weak-minded. I'm glad we are on the same page.

 

[Bullseye]

Dang, only ONLY Second! We're going to try harder this year.

 

[Jack Hays]

Correct, the audience this is aimed at is decidedly weak-minded. I'm glad we are on the same page.

Glad to see you can honestly admit your shortcoming.

 

[Bergslagstroll]

Surprise! Or, not. NOAA has also confirmed that 2019 is the 2nd hottest year on record, and that the 2010s was the hottest decade on record. 2014 through 2019 are six of the hottest years on record. As a reminder, NOAA tracks both land and ocean temperatures, with a baseline of 1901-2000. 2019 clocked in at 0.95C. Ocean temperatures hit a record.

UAH and RSS, which measure the lowest 8km of the atmosphere (but not the surface or oceans) will put 2019 as either 2nd or 3rd hottest since 1979(when satellite measurements started).

As Scientific American writes: The near-record global warmth in 2019 is all the more remarkable since it occurred during the minimum of the weakest solar cycle in 100+ years, and during a year without a strong El Nino (though a weak El Nino was present in the first half of 2019, ending in July). Record-warm global temperatures typically occur during strong El Nino events, and when the solar cycle is near its maximum. The near-record warmth of 2019 is thus a testament to how greatly human-caused global warming is impacting the planet.


Yes, everyone ought to know this means the instrumental temperature record period (since 1880). Yes, it matters. Yes, we see the effects. Yes, the deniers should shut up (even though we know they won't).

NOAA:
Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

SciAm:
Earth Had Its Second Warmest Year in Recorded History in 2019 - Scientific American Blog Network

NYT:
2019 Was the Second-Hottest Year Ever, Closing Out the Warmest Decade - The New York Times

There the threat from climate change continue to increase.

"For 10,000 years, human civilisation has grown and thrived because of the Earth’s remarkable climate stability and rich biological diversity. Astonishingly, every year since the Industrial Revolution, land-based and ocean ecosystems have absorbed close to half of all our emissions from fossil-fuel burning. That’s because the climate, and the natural ecosystems which regulate it and all life on earth, are inextricably linked. In fact, species diversity and ecosystems integrity play a fundamental role in regulating the climate, water cycles, carbon sequestration and food production. Without nature’s ability to absorb and store our GHG emissions, we would have already exceeded 2°C of warming, with potentially disastrous consequences decades ago.

The simple fact is, we don’t know how to reconstruct the cryosphere, the hydrological cycle, the rainforests, coral reefs and other life-support systems on Earth. Once the emergency fully manifests, it will simply be too late to reverse the breakdown. Collapse will cease to be something we can control. Collapse will no longer be a mere hypothetical; it will be a near certainty. Put bluntly, this is the greatest existential risk facing modern human civilisation."

Climate change is causing havoc already: how can we stop it getting worse? | World Economic Forum