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2015 Was Hottest Year in Recorded History, Scientists Say

donsutherland1

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The New York Times reported:

Scientists reported Wednesday that 2015 was the hottest year in recorded history by far, breaking a record set only the year before — a burst of heat that has continued into the new year and is roiling weather patterns all over the world.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/science/earth/2015-hottest-year-global-warming.html

The just reported GISS Anomalies:

December: +1.12°C (old record: +1.06°C, October 2015)
January-December: +0.87°C (old record: +0.74°C, 2014)


2015 had five months that were ranked among the 10 months with the greatest warm anomalies, including the 3 highest.





So far, the Berkeley, GISS, and RATPAC datasets have all shown that 2015 was, comfortably, the warmest year on record. The two remaining major datasets (NCDC and HadCrut) are very likely to do the same given their January-November data.
 

Threegoofs

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Funny.. thats EXACTLY what the climate models published over thirty years ago predicted.

And I see dozens of threads talking about how the climate models are totally wrong.
 

MrT

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The New York Times reported:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/science/earth/2015-hottest-year-global-warming.html

The just reported GISS Anomalies:

December: +1.12°C (old record: +1.06°C, October 2015)
January-December: +0.87°C (old record: +0.74°C, 2014)
So we are already at +0.8 degrees Celsius of warming for the entire year with the most recent months being significantly above +1 degree Celsius of warming?

And the goal is to try and keep us below +2 degrees Celsius?

Well...****.
 

iguanaman

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So we are already at +0.8 degrees Celsius of warming for the entire year with the most recent months being significantly above +1 degree Celsius of warming?

And the goal is to try and keep us below +2 degrees Celsius?

Well...****.
Part of the 2015 warming is certainly from the very strong El Nino so it is not as dire as it sounds. It is unlikely that 2016 will be as warm.
 

MrT

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Part of the 2015 warming is certainly from the very strong El Nino so it is not as dire as it sounds. It is unlikely that 2016 will be as warm.
A valid point, and I'm glad you said something because I thought I had read that El Nino was likely to last (if not strengthen) into 2016, but this article appears to be reporting that temperatures have already peaked and thus, El Nino may have already peaked as well.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/14/el-ninos-likely-effects-on-the-weather-us-economy-this-year.html
 

SouthernDemocrat

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You won't hear from any of the science deniers on here in this thread until the various crackpot sites they visit gives them their talking points on this one.
 

Deuce

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You won't hear from any of the science deniers on here in this thread until the various crackpot sites they visit gives them their talking points on this one.
You'd think that stuff would be up already. Anybody paying even cursory attention to the monthly temperature reports knew 2015 was going to break the record ages ago.
 

Jack Hays

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Jack Hays

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Adjustments/Corrections / NOAA ERSST.v4 Pauses Buster
[h=1]The Oddities in NOAA’s New “Pause-Buster” Sea Surface Temperature Product – An Overview of Past Posts[/h] Guest Post by Bob Tisdale NOAA revised their global surface temperature product in June 2015 to show more global warming during the post-1998 period. Those data manipulations supposedly ended the slowdown in global warming over that period. The changes to NOAA’s global ocean surface temperature product were the primary cause of the NOAA’s hiatus-disappearing act.…
 

JackA

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Adjustments/Corrections / NOAA ERSST.v4 Pauses Buster
[h=1]The Oddities in NOAA’s New “Pause-Buster” Sea Surface Temperature Product – An Overview of Past Posts[/h] Guest Post by Bob Tisdale NOAA revised their global surface temperature product in June 2015 to show more global warming during the post-1998 period. Those data manipulations supposedly ended the slowdown in global warming over that period. The changes to NOAA’s global ocean surface temperature product were the primary cause of the NOAA’s hiatus-disappearing act.…

This applies how to NOAA's announcement today?
 

Jack Hays

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JackA

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From the link in my #11:

And just in case you missed it, because GISS and NOAA both use NOAA’s ERSST.v4 “pause buster” sea surface temperature data, today I also published The Oddities in NOAA’s New “Pause-Buster” Sea Surface Temperature Product – An Overview of Past Posts.
Thanks. The link, using a University of Alabama graph courtesy of Christy and Spenser I assume, points out that 2015 was not the warmest for the lower troposphere, merely the third warmest. What the graph also shows for the lower troposphere is that except for the freak El Niño year of 1998 every year save one after the year 2001 was warmer than every year before 2001. It seems to me that is the significance of the graph.
 

Jack Hays

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Thanks. The link, using a University of Alabama graph courtesy of Christy and Spenser I assume, points out that 2015 was not the warmest for the lower troposphere, merely the third warmest. What the graph also shows for the lower troposphere is that except for the freak El Niño year of 1998 every year save one after the year 2001 was warmer than every year before 2001. It seems to me that is the significance of the graph.
Since the thread topic is the claim that 2015 was the hottest year ever, I'll just stick to debunking that claim.
 

JackA

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Since the thread topic is the claim that 2015 was the hottest year ever, I'll just stick to debunking that claim.
So you are saying the lower troposphere is the whole story.
 

Nilly

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2015-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-again/?ex_cid=538twitter

538 comes to the same conclusion, quoting both corrected and uncorrected data from a number of sources in agreement See page 6: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201601.pdf

Part of the 2015 warming is certainly from the very strong El Nino so it is not as dire as it sounds. It is unlikely that 2016 will be as warm.
You're right in that El Nino is temporary but it's likely that the effects on temperature are going to continue into 2016. We might have an even hotter 2016, although after that it should settle back down (hopefully).
 

JackA

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No. I'm just saying the "hottest year" claim is not supported.
Neither is it "debunked". Rather it is evidence that 2015 was exceptionally warm, one of the warmest years ever, leaving it to additional evidence to determine just how high the year's ranking will be.
 
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flogger

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Neither is it "debunked". Rather it is evidence that 2015 was exceptionally warm, one of the warmest years ever, leaving it to additional evidence to determine just how high the year's ranking will be.
Given the tiny sliver of time that has ever been recorded whether it is or isn't is entirely academic and far too short a timescale to be making determinations about anything frankly
 

Lord of Planar

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The New York Times reported:



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/science/earth/2015-hottest-year-global-warming.html

The just reported GISS Anomalies:

December: +1.12°C (old record: +1.06°C, October 2015)
January-December: +0.87°C (old record: +0.74°C, 2014)


2015 had five months that were ranked among the 10 months with the greatest warm anomalies, including the 3 highest.





So far, the Berkeley, GISS, and RATPAC datasets have all shown that 2015 was, comfortably, the warmest year on record. The two remaining major datasets (NCDC and HadCrut) are very likely to do the same given their January-November data.

The only problem is, with all the past data adjustments they have done to date, who can trust such things? Maybe 2015 is the warmest it's been in the last 250 years or so. Whoop-t-do... Mankind probably has contributed, but there is also natural changes since the maunder Minima, and much of it will be natural, if not most.
 

Lord of Planar

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Funny.. thats EXACTLY what the climate models published over thirty years ago predicted.

And I see dozens of threads talking about how the climate models are totally wrong.
30 years ago, they also know the aerosols would be clearing out of the skies.

It's a no-brainier that temperatures would increase since the late 70's/early 80's.
 

ludin

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weather is not climate according to the people here.
so there is nothing to see.

this is just another weather event. have a nice day.
 
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