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2014 Election (the Senate and House)

2014 Predictions for the Senate and the House (multiple selections):


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Porchev

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What do think will happen in 2014? 33 Senate seats will be voted on in 2014, 20 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans.
Current Senate Breakdown:
54 Democrats (2 Independents -Sanders and King)
46 Republicans
House Breakdown:
233 Republicans
200 Democrats
2 Seats Undecided
---I think the Republicans will be voted in as the majority party in the Senate and retain the majority in the House of Representatives.
Here is article on how they could potentially do that in the Senate: 2014 Senate Elections: Here is the Republican Roadmap to Victory
 

iacardsfan

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I don't see any way that the Republicans get the majority.

Unless Governor McDonnell runs (which I don't think he will, I think he is gearing up for a run at the WH) then Virginia is a lock for the Dems. South Dakota is going to the Dems I am positive, and I think Arkansas will go to the Dems. Leaving the Republicans far short of their needed number.
 

ToastyOats

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What do think will happen in 2014? 33 Senate seats will be voted on in 2014, 20 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans.
Current Senate Breakdown:
54 Democrats (2 Independents -Sanders and King)
46 Republicans
House Breakdown:
233 Republicans
200 Democrats
2 Seats Undecided
---I think the Republicans will be voted in as the majority party in the Senate and retain the majority in the House of Representatives.
Here is article on how they could potentially do that in the Senate: 2014 Senate Elections: Here is the Republican Roadmap to Victory
Well Republicans certainly have a road map, a pathway to a majority in the Senate. They also had one in 2012, and they kind of got lost along the way and ended up on the corner of Akin and Murdoch amongst other little bumps in the road. The GOP lost races in Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota of all places, and honestly besides the push in the Senate with the immigration bill, I don't see much of what Republicans have been doing to improve their brand in order to make themselves more palatable to voters. Barring some unforeseen calamity, the economy will be better in 2014 and the deficit will be less than it is today, and that almost always helps the party in power. It's probably not going to be that much better in a year, but enough to where Democrats can point to it and say, "It's... something!"

Right now, I'd say the Democrats would keep the Senate, and pick up a few seats in the House but not get a majority. If the immigration bill dies in the House, then we might see something worse in store for Republicans in the next election.

Just because they have a map, doesn't mean they have a car that can make the journey, and I don't see it yet.
 

Phys251

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Poll doesn't make sense.
 

Porchev

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Well Republicans certainly have a road map, a pathway to a majority in the Senate. They also had one in 2012, and they kind of got lost along the way and ended up on the corner of Akin and Murdoch amongst other little bumps in the road. The GOP lost races in Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota of all places, and honestly besides the push in the Senate with the immigration bill, I don't see much of what Republicans have been doing to improve their brand in order to make themselves more palatable to voters. Barring some unforeseen calamity, the economy will be better in 2014 and the deficit will be less than it is today, and that almost always helps the party in power. It's probably not going to be that much better in a year, but enough to where Democrats can point to it and say, "It's... something!"

Right now, I'd say the Democrats would keep the Senate, and pick up a few seats in the House but not get a majority. If the immigration bill dies in the House, then we might see something worse in store for Republicans in the next election.

Just because they have a map, doesn't mean they have a car that can make the journey, and I don't see it yet.
Too many people are told that the Republican Party doesn't care about the poor, minorities, women, having clean air and water, etc. but that is simply not true. It is an uphill battle for the Republicans to fight against such negativity. So in my opinion the Republicans are always the underdog and it is never easy, however, I think it will look more like 2010 than 2012. All the recent scandals will be a factor and Obama-care is becoming less and less popular as time goes on and more people learn details of it.

About Akin and Murdoch, they absolutely don't need people like that, and as it says at that link, "They don’t need any more Christine O’Donnells and Sharron Angles or Todd Akins and Richard Mourdocks, especially in states where Republicans shouldn’t be losing elections."
 

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What do think will happen in 2014? 33 Senate seats will be voted on in 2014, 20 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans.
Current Senate Breakdown:
54 Democrats (2 Independents -Sanders and King)
46 Republicans
House Breakdown:
233 Republicans
200 Democrats
2 Seats Undecided
---I think the Republicans will be voted in as the majority party in the Senate and retain the majority in the House of Representatives.
Here is article on how they could potentially do that in the Senate: 2014 Senate Elections: Here is the Republican Roadmap to Victory
As it stands right now I think the Republicans will not take over the Senate. Short of an Act of God they will remain control in the house.

They need six seats to take the Senate.

South Dakota and West Virginia should be easy takeovers so long as Rounds and Capito when their primaries. I suppose if Nick Rahall were to run in West Virginia he would have a very outside shot at victory if everything went his and the Democrats way.

In Alaska, it's probably a tossup if its Treadwell vs Begich, but Begich would be a favorite if Joe Miller gets the nomination again.

Hagan is probably a very small favorite in North Carolina, but that could easily be taken in a moderate Republican year.

Louisiana and Minnesota are probably tossups right now. A good Republican candidate could beat Landrieu or Pryor.

Assuming Schweitzer runs, Montana probably leans toward the Democrats as it seems like Racicot who would be the GOP's best candidate is leaning against running.

The GOP had a shot at taking Harkin or Levin's seats, but the Democrats have coalesced around strong candidates there, all strong Republicans have declined to run, and both states have a Democratic tilt anyway.

Republicans have an outside shot of taking down Merkley, Shaheen, or Mark Udall. Democrats have an outside shot at Georgia and Kentucky.

All in all, I think the GOP falls just short.
 

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I don't see any way that the Republicans get the majority.

Unless Governor McDonnell runs (which I don't think he will, I think he is gearing up for a run at the WH) then Virginia is a lock for the Dems. South Dakota is going to the Dems I am positive, and I think Arkansas will go to the Dems. Leaving the Republicans far short of their needed number.
Why do you think South Dakota is going to the Dems? I think they screwed themselves there by picking Weiland and forcing Herseth Sandlin out of the primary.
 

iacardsfan

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Why do you think South Dakota is going to the Dems? I think they screwed themselves there by picking Weiland and forcing Herseth Sandlin out of the primary.
I just see them becoming more liberal as a state. I could be wrong, but in all reality, it doesn't matter even if one of those doesn't happen they don't take majority.
 

Porchev

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As it stands right now I think the Republicans will not take over the Senate. Short of an Act of God they will remain control in the house.

They need six seats to take the Senate.

South Dakota and West Virginia should be easy takeovers so long as Rounds and Capito when their primaries. I suppose if Nick Rahall were to run in West Virginia he would have a very outside shot at victory if everything went his and the Democrats way.

In Alaska, it's probably a tossup if its Treadwell vs Begich, but Begich would be a favorite if Joe Miller gets the nomination again.

Hagan is probably a very small favorite in North Carolina, but that could easily be taken in a moderate Republican year.

Louisiana and Minnesota are probably tossups right now. A good Republican candidate could beat Landrieu or Pryor.

Assuming Schweitzer runs, Montana probably leans toward the Democrats as it seems like Racicot who would be the GOP's best candidate is leaning against running.

The GOP had a shot at taking Harkin or Levin's seats, but the Democrats have coalesced around strong candidates there, all strong Republicans have declined to run, and both states have a Democratic tilt anyway.

Republicans have an outside shot of taking down Merkley, Shaheen, or Mark Udall. Democrats have an outside shot at Georgia and Kentucky.

All in all, I think the GOP falls just short.
About Alaska, like him or not, I believe the numbers more or less show that Joe Miller would be a Senator now if Murkowski would have accepted the results of the primary. So I would not count him out yet. Treadmill or Miller would have a good chance of winning.

Montana: you may be right. Although Schweitzer might make an attempt at running for President in 2016, no matter what he does in 2014, and honestly if we are going to have another President from the Democratic Party, he would be a moderate down to earth Democrat and that would be a move to the center from what we have now.
 

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About Alaska, like him or not, I believe the numbers more or less show that Joe Miller would be a Senator now if Murkowski would have accepted the results of the primary. So I would not count him out yet. Treadmill or Miller would have a good chance of winning.
True. But 2010 was a very Republican year and there's no guarantee 2014 will be as good. McAdams was also a much worse candidate than Begich, who has double digit approval right now in Alaska. Joe Miller's also seen his favorability decline to something like -40 and Republican leaning and Democratic leaning polling has had Miller down 23 and 28 to Begich right now, so I'd rather not chance it and just have Treadwell win the primary.

Montana: you may be right. Although Schweitzer might make an attempt at running for President in 2016, no matter what he does in 2014, and honestly if we are going to have another President from the Democratic Party, he would be a moderate down to earth Democrat and that would be a move to the center from what we have now.
Without a doubt a step up. If I had to have a Democrat president Schweitzer would be near the top of my list.
 

Porchev

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True. But 2010 was a very Republican year and there's no guarantee 2014 will be as good. McAdams was also a much worse candidate than Begich, who has double digit approval right now in Alaska. Joe Miller's also seen his favorability decline to something like -40 and Republican leaning and Democratic leaning polling has had Miller down 23 and 28 to Begich right now, so I'd rather not chance it and just have Treadwell win the primary.

Without a doubt a step up. If I had to have a Democrat president Schweitzer would be near the top of my list.
That is too bad about Joe Miller's favorability numbers, I like when outsider types breakthrough and act with no fear once they get in (like Texas' Ted Cruz). Of course Treadwell would be a safe bet. And he would most likely get more help from the other Senator of Alaska around election time.

About the outside shot in Georgia you mentioned, there are enough good Republicans around to win that seat being vacated by Saxby Chambliss. I don't think it will be Karen Handel though, she has too much baggage now with some lies during her attempt to become Governor, and she had a few controversies since then. What I thought would have been interesting is if Newt Gingrich ran. He has baggage too of course, but I think he would be able to pull it off.
 

Paschendale

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Democrats need to not get complacent and get out and vote. Far too many Democratic voters stay home. And maybe with a little less gerrymandering, the house would more closely resemble the actual positions of the American people.
 

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Poll doesn't make sense.
I don't understand how there can be an option "republicans become the majority" and "republicans become the minority" in the same poll. Options should have been republicans control congress, republicans control house democratss control senate, democrats control house republicans control senate, democrats control congress.
 

Porchev

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I don't understand how there can be an option "republicans become the majority" and "republicans become the minority" in the same poll. Options should have been republicans control congress, republicans control house democratss control senate, democrats control house republicans control senate, democrats control congress.
True, it could be written a few different ways for sure and perhaps something clearer. Maybe next time. However given these options, it is true that the results of the 2014 election could change the majorities and minorities of Congress (Congress is made up of both the House of Representatives and the Senate).
 
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