2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the Past

[Heavy Duty]

October 27, 2010
2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the PastGOP Election Day advantage aided by surge in independents who lean Republicanby Lydia SaadPRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year's congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

The current and historical likely voter data reviewed here assume an approximately 40% turnout rate among national adults for each election, close to the typical turnout rate recorded in recent midterm years. (Gallup has also calculated the 2010 congressional vote using an assumption of higher turnout.)

Specifically, 55% of likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 14-24, 2010, polling are Republicans and independents who lean Republican. This is higher than the Republican showing in the past four midterm elections, although not too dissimilar to the 51% found in 2002. The corollary of this is that the 40% of likely voters now identifying as Democratic is the lowest such percentage of the past several midterms.

Notably, this year's high Republican representation among likely voters stems mainly from a substantial increase in Republican-leaning independents in the likely voter pool -- now at 16% -- reflecting the broader shift toward the Republican Party among independents evident since 2009.

2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the Past

Looks to be a landslide for the republicans.

The democrats should have listened to the people when Obama was elected. American people were looking for a change and hope for the future. The only thing the democrats did was lie saying they were going to do one thing (change) and did the complete opposite (same as always).

Now the republicans have the chance to get it right and become the party they claim to be.

But they better do what they claim or both the democrats and the republicans will get the boot in 2012. This country is primed and ready for a third party to come into power.