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2010 election to be a referendum on Obama

cpwill

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Voters will go to the polls this November with control of Congress at stake. Yet most voters say when they pull that lever, they will be sending a message to the White House, according to a Fox News poll.

The poll, released Friday, finds that 41 percent of voters will cast their ballots to register opposition to President Obama's policies. A third (33 percent) will vote to express their support. The policies of the administration will not be a factor for 20 percent of voters.

Most Republicans — 72 percent — describe their midterm vote as expressing opposition to the Obama administration. That's a bit higher than the 64 percent of Democrats who say their vote will express support. One in 10 Democrats will vote to express opposition to the president (11 percent).

Independents are nearly 20 percentage points more likely to say their vote will express opposition (41 percent) rather than support (23 percent) for Obama policies. Thirty-three percent of independents say the administration won't influence their vote.

If the election were held today, 41 percent of voters would back the Republican candidate in their congressional district and 37 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate....

Among voters who are "extremely" interested, 54 percent say they would back the Republican candidate in their district. Half as many (27 percent) say they would vote for the Democrat if the election were today.

Voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement would vote for the Republican candidate by a 68-11 percent margin.

By 50-36 percent, more voters think Democratic control of Congress and the White House for the last year and a half has been bad for the country....

By double-digit margins, Republicans are seen as the party that would do a better job on terrorism (+16 points), the size of government
(+16 points), the federal deficit (+15 points) and immigration (+13 points). They also hold the edge, though by slimmer margins, on handling Afghanistan (+9 points), taxes (+ 8 points), and the economy (+5 points).

Voters favor Democrats as the party that would do a better job on energy by 9 points and by 3 points on job creation.

The issue of health care is essentially a tie: 43 percent say Republicans would do a better job and 42 percent Democrats....

When asked specifically about the Tea Party movement, nearly half of voters (46 percent) think it is good for the country, while 29 percent say it's bad for the country...

The Tea Party has more positive political capital than labor unions in the upcoming elections.

Nearly equal numbers of voters would be more likely (42 percent) than less likely (38 percent) to vote for a candidate affiliated with the Tea Party.

A union endorsement has a negative effect: 38 percent of voters would be more likely to vote for that candidate, and nearly half — 47 percent — less likely.

Independents are more likely to back a Tea Party candidate by a 5 percentage point margin, and less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the unions by 21 points.
 

danarhea

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Voters will go to the polls this November with control of Congress at stake. Yet most voters say when they pull that lever, they will be sending a message to the White House, according to a Fox News poll.

The poll, released Friday, finds that 41 percent of voters will cast their ballots to register opposition to President Obama's policies. A third (33 percent) will vote to express their support. The policies of the administration will not be a factor for 20 percent of voters.

Most Republicans — 72 percent — describe their midterm vote as expressing opposition to the Obama administration. That's a bit higher than the 64 percent of Democrats who say their vote will express support. One in 10 Democrats will vote to express opposition to the president (11 percent).

Independents are nearly 20 percentage points more likely to say their vote will express opposition (41 percent) rather than support (23 percent) for Obama policies. Thirty-three percent of independents say the administration won't influence their vote.

If the election were held today, 41 percent of voters would back the Republican candidate in their congressional district and 37 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate....

Among voters who are "extremely" interested, 54 percent say they would back the Republican candidate in their district. Half as many (27 percent) say they would vote for the Democrat if the election were today.

Voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement would vote for the Republican candidate by a 68-11 percent margin.

By 50-36 percent, more voters think Democratic control of Congress and the White House for the last year and a half has been bad for the country....

By double-digit margins, Republicans are seen as the party that would do a better job on terrorism (+16 points), the size of government
(+16 points), the federal deficit (+15 points) and immigration (+13 points). They also hold the edge, though by slimmer margins, on handling Afghanistan (+9 points), taxes (+ 8 points), and the economy (+5 points).

Voters favor Democrats as the party that would do a better job on energy by 9 points and by 3 points on job creation.

The issue of health care is essentially a tie: 43 percent say Republicans would do a better job and 42 percent Democrats....

When asked specifically about the Tea Party movement, nearly half of voters (46 percent) think it is good for the country, while 29 percent say it's bad for the country...

The Tea Party has more positive political capital than labor unions in the upcoming elections.

Nearly equal numbers of voters would be more likely (42 percent) than less likely (38 percent) to vote for a candidate affiliated with the Tea Party.

A union endorsement has a negative effect: 38 percent of voters would be more likely to vote for that candidate, and nearly half — 47 percent — less likely.

Independents are more likely to back a Tea Party candidate by a 5 percentage point margin, and less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the unions by 21 points.
I respectfully disagree with you here. Although Obama's numbers are way down, Republicans score just 26% in polling, and this election cycle will be more over local issues than anything else. Democrats will lose seats, but neither house is going to change over.

However, in 2012, I would fully agree with you. I don't think America can stomach another 4 years of Obama, and barring the nomination of Palin or other crazy, I think the GOP will have a lock on the presidency that year.
 

cpwill

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I respectfully disagree with you here. Although Obama's numbers are way down, Republicans score just 26% in polling, and this election cycle will be more over local issues than anything else.
given that 63% of Independents say that their vote will be a reflection of their support or opposition to this current administration, how do you figure this?

part of the growth of the information age and mass-media (as well as bigger federal government and a series of crises); all local elections are becoming increasingly nationalized.

Democrats will lose seats, but neither house is going to change over.
well we will see; frankly i think we'll take the house and not the Senate; hopefully picking that up in 2012 with the White House.

However, in 2012, I would fully agree with you. I don't think America can stomach another 4 years of Obama, and barring the nomination of Palin or other crazy, I think the GOP will have a lock on the presidency that year.
Obama is currently being defeated by Romney and Pawlenty and tying Palin in the polls. and how is Palin crazy?
 

danarhea

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given that 63% of Independents say that their vote will be a reflection of their support or opposition to this current administration, how do you figure this?

part of the growth of the information age and mass-media (as well as bigger federal government and a series of crises); all local elections are becoming increasingly nationalized.



well we will see; frankly i think we'll take the house and not the Senate; hopefully picking that up in 2012 with the White House.



Obama is currently being defeated by Romney and Pawlenty and tying Palin in the polls. and how is Palin crazy?
Romney? Another Massechusetts liberal in conservative clothing, but he can win independents.

Pawlenty? Good pick. I'd vote for him. He can win independents too.

Palin? Bat **** crazy lunatic, and an automatic loss for the GOP. Since most independents are not extremists, they will flock to Obama in droves.

My prediction is that the GOP knows this too, and Palin doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting the nomination.

Jindall? Looks like a deer in the headlights when he speaks. He may have good ideas, but he doesn't stand a chance either. If he was nominated, Obama would tear him apart during the debates. Scratch him too.

Tom Campbell (California)? I'd keep my eye on him. Conservative dark horse candidate, who might have an outside chance.

Scott Brown? Moderate who would pull independents in, and has charisma, with no skeletons in the closet. I'd keep my eye on him too.

Huckabee? Retread with no chance. He blew it when he said he would change the constitution for Jesus.

Ron Paul? He'll run again, but once again loses due to lack of charisma, and whiney voice. I will be voting for him in the primary again, though. IMHO, he is the best man for the job, although he won't get it.
 
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Redress

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Dan, in july of 2006, it was pretty well expected that Hillary Clinton was the next president. I have a suspicion that 2012 will follow a similar pattern in that the expected candidates are going to wash out and some one totally unexpected will win at least the republican nomination. This will be especially true if the economy is(god forbid) still in a bad way, in which case any established politician will have negative baggage.

I also think that from a pure observer standpoint, the republican nomination process is going to be fascinating and brutal, with an all out war between the more moderate, Reagan republicans vs the more extreme(I use the word advisedly, not meaning they are extremist, but much further to the right) side of the party. That war has already started to an extent, with part of the party pushing the party in a conservative direction, and part wanting to remain moderate. The Tea Party has really shaken things up.
 

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Like a soccer player in the World Cup the Republicans will see an empty net with the goalie down and then shoot the ball like a rocket blasting it well over 30 yards of the goal bar. They will do the typical choke in the clutch by nominating someone like Palin.

Don't feel sad though the Dems did it at the end of Bush's first disaterous term by brining in John (Reporting for Duty) Kerry....
 

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Like a soccer player in the World Cup the Republicans will see an empty net with the goalie down and then shoot the ball like a rocket blasting it well over 30 yards of the goal bar. They will do the typical choke in the clutch by nominating someone like Palin.

Don't feel sad though the Dems did it at the end of Bush's first disaterous term by brining in John (Reporting for Duty) Kerry....
It is a tribute to the GOP's ability to control the message that John Kerry, a man who actually spent time in combat overseas, had his military service turned into a joke, while George W. Bush became the warrior president by hiding out in the ANG. Liberal media, indeed.
 

obvious Child

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Wait, seriously? What the hell was the reasoning for that?
Because Obama was actually meeting our signed requirements under the NPT. She attacked his restrictions on nukes as well as his desire to eliminate them. Never mind that as a key signatory country to the NPT, we are legally obligated to reduce and eliminate our weapons. Our refusal to eliminate and restrict has always been a big problem with non-nuclear states. If the US refuses to uphold its end of the deal, why should they uphold their's?

More likely Palin has no bloody idea what the hell she's talking about. After all, in the same week she said Steele was doing a good job. Really.
 

Deuce

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Because Obama was actually meeting our signed requirements under the NPT. She attacked his restrictions on nukes as well as his desire to eliminate them. Never mind that as a key signatory country to the NPT, we are legally obligated to reduce and eliminate our weapons. Our refusal to eliminate and restrict has always been a big problem with non-nuclear states. If the US refuses to uphold its end of the deal, why should they uphold their's?

More likely Palin has no bloody idea what the hell she's talking about. After all, in the same week she said Steele was doing a good job. Really.
America is going to be less safe because Obama is reducing our ability to destroy the planet 3 times over down to 2 times over!
 

cpwill

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It is a tribute to the GOP's ability to control the message that John Kerry, a man who actually spent time in combat overseas, had his military service turned into a joke, while George W. Bush became the warrior president by hiding out in the ANG. Liberal media, indeed.
the republicans didnt' turn it into a joke. John Kerry did that.
 

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America is going to be less safe because Obama is reducing our ability to destroy the planet 3 times over down to 2 times over!
Damnit. Only double overkill. Not triple! Obama's a stupid monkey for reducing our capacity to turn the world into ash just twice rather then three times! The terrorists will surely win now!!!!
 

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and how is Palin crazy?
Dan wants a good Moderate Republican that can reach across the isle and work with Democrats to craft bi-partisan goodness.

That and the cool people say Palin is crazy, so Dan wants to be cool too.
 
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