Summary
Combine a weak El Nino episode that may decay in late winter, thus shutting down or diminishing the vaunted southern branch moisture feed, and recurrent strong NAO-styled blocking in locations stretching from Nunavut AR to Iceland (which should suppress the polar or Arctic jet streams in latitude), and the stage is set for a colder than normal, fairly snowy winter season across the Midwest and Northeast.
With occasional +PNA positive height anomalies in place over the West and a subtropical high likely to be centered near or just east of the Bahamas, then it becomes evident that temperatures will stay moderate or warm across the Intermountain Region and along the immediate Gulf Coast, including Florida. Precipitation may be sparse in these same vicinities, owing to the strength of the anticyclones. However, with the pulsations of the El Nino energizing the lower latitude jet stream, precipitation can expected to be well above normal from parts of Texas into the upper St. Lawrence Valley. Where moisture intersects the incoming cold air, such as in the Ohio Valley, Appalachia, and the Northeast, snowfall can be expected to run above average. In some cases, icing may be an issue with the very warm mT fetch overrunning the cold dome (in a manner similar to 1993-94).
