From the U.S. perspective, the eviction of U.S. forces during the early 1990s remains a painful memory. The perception of the Philippines as an unreliable and ungrateful ally engenders caution about providing a robust U.S. security commitment. Moreover, former President Rodrigo Duterte’s open hostility toward the alliance and appeasement of China damaged relations.
From the Philippine perspective, it fears abandonment in the face of Chinese hostility on the one hand and entrapment in a major war on the other. The lack of U.S. resolve to stand by its ally during the Scarborough Shoal standoff of 2012 is one often-cited example of abandonment. Furthermore, Philippine officials remain cautious in public statements regarding the operational use of their bases out of fear the country may be dragged into a major war.
Nevertheless, relations between the two countries have improved since the election of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who understands well the threat China poses to Philippine sovereignty and the importance of the U.S.-Philippine alliance to balance that threat. The United States should continue to seize this opportunity to build a stronger relationship by scaling up its security cooperation through larger joint exercises, modernizing the AFP, and constructing base infrastructure on the nine bases provided under the EDCA. Most important, both allies must demonstrate to each other, and to the entire region, that they are reliable partners. For the United States, this means accepting greater risk and possible confrontation on behalf of the Philippines to challenge violations of territorial sovereignty and international law. For the Philippines, this means U.S. forces must have the operational flexibility to use Philippine bases for the broader purpose of regional security rather than just territorial defense.
Revitalizing the U.S.-Philippine alliance must be accomplished not by words, but by actions. It is one thing to say the U.S.-Philippine alliance is “ironclad.” It is another thing to prove it.