- Joined
- Jun 11, 2009
- Messages
- 19,657
- Reaction score
- 8,454
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Libertarian
Before the chorus of "too early to tell" or "anything could happen between now and then" starts, let me say you are wrong. Whether the election were today or in November of next year, the outcome is already decided because this is not like any other election in US history. Here is why.
1. Trump has made his party stronger by shrinking it. That should be counterintuitive but the party is now defined by a loyalty test and it is extremely homogeneous. Rural, white, non college educated, and identify strongly with Christian values. It is an extremely united voting bloc and Trump's never wavering poll numbers around 42% despite what he does shows the power of a united group. The Dems by contrast are so diverse that appeasing one part of their coalition immediately turns off another part. Support for the eventual Dem nominee will be tepid at best.
2. FOX has perfected the art of serving as state media. As a network it has demonstrated extraordinary skill in creating a better echo chamber than the liberal media. In many ways it tells the President and GOP how to respond and is almost a thinking tank in its own right. And loyalty to Trump has been shown to be directly proportional to watching FOX.
3. Conspiracy theories and disinformation now rule. Facts are irrelevant. The right has learned when the truth is inconvenient, they can just create an entirely different narrative. If GOP politicians do not fall in line, they can be threatened with a campaign of disinformation that will destroy their reelection prospects. Anything that any Joe Schmo on the internet can dream up as a conspiracy can be weaponized into an alternative truth. While the Dems engage in constant infighting the GOP will be praising Trump constantly, if for no other reason than for the sake of their own political futures.
4. Trump's rallies are effective. They have all the pageantry of a WWF fight and the excitement of a monster truck show. They energize voters, connect people, and reinforce the MAGA cultural identity. The Dems have none of that and are now in the Stone Age of campaigning.
5. Trump has garnered all the credit for the economy. While we already had record long growth, low unemployment, and stability under Obama, Trump has convinced people that he is solely responsible for our current economy. Dems have ceded this argument and the most important issue to right wing voters is the economy.
1. Trump has made his party stronger by shrinking it. That should be counterintuitive but the party is now defined by a loyalty test and it is extremely homogeneous. Rural, white, non college educated, and identify strongly with Christian values. It is an extremely united voting bloc and Trump's never wavering poll numbers around 42% despite what he does shows the power of a united group. The Dems by contrast are so diverse that appeasing one part of their coalition immediately turns off another part. Support for the eventual Dem nominee will be tepid at best.
2. FOX has perfected the art of serving as state media. As a network it has demonstrated extraordinary skill in creating a better echo chamber than the liberal media. In many ways it tells the President and GOP how to respond and is almost a thinking tank in its own right. And loyalty to Trump has been shown to be directly proportional to watching FOX.
3. Conspiracy theories and disinformation now rule. Facts are irrelevant. The right has learned when the truth is inconvenient, they can just create an entirely different narrative. If GOP politicians do not fall in line, they can be threatened with a campaign of disinformation that will destroy their reelection prospects. Anything that any Joe Schmo on the internet can dream up as a conspiracy can be weaponized into an alternative truth. While the Dems engage in constant infighting the GOP will be praising Trump constantly, if for no other reason than for the sake of their own political futures.
4. Trump's rallies are effective. They have all the pageantry of a WWF fight and the excitement of a monster truck show. They energize voters, connect people, and reinforce the MAGA cultural identity. The Dems have none of that and are now in the Stone Age of campaigning.
5. Trump has garnered all the credit for the economy. While we already had record long growth, low unemployment, and stability under Obama, Trump has convinced people that he is solely responsible for our current economy. Dems have ceded this argument and the most important issue to right wing voters is the economy.
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