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10 Reasons Trump will win in 2020

CriticalThought

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Before the chorus of "too early to tell" or "anything could happen between now and then" starts, let me say you are wrong. Whether the election were today or in November of next year, the outcome is already decided because this is not like any other election in US history. Here is why.

1. Trump has made his party stronger by shrinking it. That should be counterintuitive but the party is now defined by a loyalty test and it is extremely homogeneous. Rural, white, non college educated, and identify strongly with Christian values. It is an extremely united voting bloc and Trump's never wavering poll numbers around 42% despite what he does shows the power of a united group. The Dems by contrast are so diverse that appeasing one part of their coalition immediately turns off another part. Support for the eventual Dem nominee will be tepid at best.

2. FOX has perfected the art of serving as state media. As a network it has demonstrated extraordinary skill in creating a better echo chamber than the liberal media. In many ways it tells the President and GOP how to respond and is almost a thinking tank in its own right. And loyalty to Trump has been shown to be directly proportional to watching FOX.

3. Conspiracy theories and disinformation now rule. Facts are irrelevant. The right has learned when the truth is inconvenient, they can just create an entirely different narrative. If GOP politicians do not fall in line, they can be threatened with a campaign of disinformation that will destroy their reelection prospects. Anything that any Joe Schmo on the internet can dream up as a conspiracy can be weaponized into an alternative truth. While the Dems engage in constant infighting the GOP will be praising Trump constantly, if for no other reason than for the sake of their own political futures.

4. Trump's rallies are effective. They have all the pageantry of a WWF fight and the excitement of a monster truck show. They energize voters, connect people, and reinforce the MAGA cultural identity. The Dems have none of that and are now in the Stone Age of campaigning.

5. Trump has garnered all the credit for the economy. While we already had record long growth, low unemployment, and stability under Obama, Trump has convinced people that he is solely responsible for our current economy. Dems have ceded this argument and the most important issue to right wing voters is the economy.
 
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6. Hatred for Trump will not motivate voters as much as love for Trump. Recent polling show his supporters view him as not just a great president, but as one of the best presidents in history. By contrast liberals have no love for their own candidates and little interest in coming together behind a single candidate.

7. Trump has better messaging. Medicare for All and student loan forgiveness are easy prey and Trump has already demonstrated how he can set moderate liberals against progressives at a whim by poking at these kinds of proposals. Best of all, he could literally do whatever he wants and the liberals will always be worse. That has been his best message. He is a flawed human being who has done and continues to do bad things, but compared to the atrocities that the Clintons and Obamas committed on the country and its people, Trump is a saint. That is why he could stand on 5th Avenue and shoot someone and lose no support if you hadn't figured it out yet.

8. The deep state is real. I don't mean the made up version that Trump has touted, but the nonpartisan career civil servants who refused to pledge undying fealty to Trump. Normally this would be a good thing and they would be the backbone of our institutions who fight corruption at all levels of the federal government regardless of who is president, but Trump has done a remarkable job of making them public enemy number one. None of his supporters have blinked at this and some even make death threats towards these individuals when they take a stand on principle. The term "Never Trumper" is now synonymous with anyone who does not support Trump 100 percent. It means that not just support for Trump is mandatory, but disdain for those who don't is required. Dems still think average Americans care about corruption and value civil service.

9. Trump has created a personality cult, but that is what Americans do. If you look at how we idolize celebrities, past leaders, and prominent historical figures you would see Trump has tapped into a desire Americans have to make and worship myths. Many even believe he is where he is now because God wants him there. Do any Dems feel that Biden, Warren, Sanders, or Buttigieg are divinely chosen?

10. Liberal arrogance. This is the main reason Trump will win. Progressives at their core feel a drive to root out the ignorance and social injustices of the world. Great! Problem is that looks an awful lot like attacking the rural, white, non college educated, and Christian identifying people of the country. That looks an awful lot like elitism. And in the culture war, the left has dominated. Same sex marriage is a good example of how quickly that form of public opinion can move things across the country. But with that success comes Trump. Where did he shine? As a reality TV star. He knows how this works intimately and he uses it to great effect. He swayed the GOP opinion on Russia so far that they are now pushing disinformation in favor of that nation when 4 years ago they saw them as our biggest geopolitical threat. Trump cannot lose in this arena because any liberal attack is seen as further proof that Trump is the Everyman hero come to save us from the tyrannical left who wish to impose their world view. He will demonize the eventual Dem nominee so well that their own mother will not want to show up to vote for them.

So yeah, Trump has it in the bag. You heard it here first.
 
#10 is a big problem for dems.
 
6. Hatred for Trump will not motivate voters as much as love for Trump. Recent polling show his supporters view him as not just a great president, but as one of the best presidents in history. By contrast liberals have no love for their own candidates and little interest in coming together behind a single candidate.

7. Trump has better messaging. Medicare for All and student loan forgiveness are easy prey and Trump has already demonstrated how he can set moderate liberals against progressives at a whim by poking at these kinds of proposals. Best of all, he could literally do whatever he wants and the liberals will always be worse. That has been his best message. He is a flawed human being who has done and continues to do bad things, but compared to the atrocities that the Clintons and Obamas committed on the country and its people, Trump is a saint. That is why he could stand on 5th Avenue and shoot someone and lose no support if you hadn't figured it out yet.

8. The deep state is real. I don't mean the made up version that Trump has touted, but the nonpartisan career civil servants who refused to pledge undying fealty to Trump. Normally this would be a good thing and they would be the backbone of our institutions who fight corruption at all levels of the federal government regardless of who is president, but Trump has done a remarkable job of making them public enemy number one. None of his supporters have blinked at this and some even make death threats towards these individuals when they take a stand on principle. The term "Never Trumper" is now synonymous with anyone who does not support Trump 100 percent. It means that not just support for Trump is mandatory, but disdain for those who don't is required. Dems still think average Americans care about corruption and value civil service.

9. Trump has created a personality cult, but that is what Americans do. If you look at how we idolize celebrities, past leaders, and prominent historical figures you would see Trump has tapped into a desire Americans have to make and worship myths. Many even believe he is where he is now because God wants him there. Do any Dems feel that Biden, Warren, Sanders, or Buttigieg are divinely chosen?

10. Liberal arrogance. This is the main reason Trump will win. Progressives at their core feel a drive to root out the ignorance and social injustices of the world. Great! Problem is that looks an awful lot like attacking the rural, white, non college educated, and Christian identifying people of the country. That looks an awful lot like elitism. And in the culture war, the left has dominated. Same sex marriage is a good example of how quickly that form of public opinion can move things across the country. But with that success comes Trump. Where did he shine? As a reality TV star. He knows how this works intimately and he uses it to great effect. He swayed the GOP opinion on Russia so far that they are now pushing disinformation in favor of that nation when 4 years ago they saw them as our biggest geopolitical threat. Trump cannot lose in this arena because any liberal attack is seen as further proof that Trump is the Everyman hero come to save us from the tyrannical left who wish to impose their world view. He will demonize the eventual Dem nominee so well that their own mother will not want to show up to vote for them.

So yeah, Trump has it in the bag. You heard it here first.

If Trump were somewhat of a "conservative adhesive", it would seem like he would have been factor to a united and aggrieved conservative base delivering the House to the GOP in 2018, especially in the wake of their golden boy taking heavy fire from witch hunting Democrats, if Trump had really consolidated the base so well.
 
#10 is a big problem for dems.

If we get Joe Biden, yeah, Biden is the most vulnerable. Especially cause he can't even land a counter-punch. If we get someone else with less hubris and whose "establishment card" is not old as the hills, then we have a fighting chance. Better yet if Dems nominate someone who has traded their establishment card for a pitchfork, look out 'cause we have demographics on our side. We just need an inspiring candidate.
 
Before the chorus of "too early to tell" or "anything could happen between now and then" starts, let me say you are wrong. Whether the election were today or in November of next year, the outcome is already decided because this is not like any other election in US history. Here is why.

1. Trump has made his party stronger by shrinking it. That should be counterintuitive but the party is now defined by a loyalty test and it is extremely homogeneous. Rural, white, non college educated, and identify strongly with Christian values. It is an extremely united voting bloc and Trump's never wavering poll numbers around 42% despite what he does shows the power of a united group. The Dems by contrast are so diverse that appeasing one part of their coalition immediately turns off another part. Support for the eventual Dem nominee will be tepid at best.

2. FOX has perfected the art of serving as state media. As a network it has demonstrated extraordinary skill in creating a better echo chamber than the liberal media. In many ways it tells the President and GOP how to respond and is almost a thinking tank in its own right. And loyalty to Trump has been shown to be directly proportional to watching FOX.

3. Conspiracy theories and disinformation now rule. Facts are irrelevant. The right has learned when the truth is inconvenient, they can just create an entirely different narrative. If GOP politicians do not fall in line, they can be threatened with a campaign of disinformation that will destroy their reelection prospects. Anything that any Joe Schmo on the internet can dream up as a conspiracy can be weaponized into an alternative truth. While the Dems engage in constant infighting the GOP will be praising Trump constantly, if for no other reason than for the sake of their own political futures.

4. Trump's rallies are effective. They have all the pageantry of a WWF fight and the excitement of a monster truck show. They energize voters, connect people, and reinforce the MAGA cultural identity. The Dems have none of that and are now in the Stone Age of campaigning.

5. Trump has garnered all the credit for the economy. While we already had record long growth, low unemployment, and stability under Obama, Trump has convinced people that he is solely responsible for our current economy. Dems have ceded this argument and the most important issue to right wing voters is the economy.

I think this a pretty darn good post describing Trump's electoral strengths. But it also neglects Trump's upside down disapproval rating of 54%, nor does it account for Trump's 50% impeach & remove numbers.

But that being said, Trump is an incumbent with a good economy - so he has to be considered the presumptive winner. In addition, he is looking reasonably good in his battle-ground states. But then again, there's his massive disapproval rating. So I really don't know where the election will go, but it does seem there has been a slight shift back to Dem since 2016. And Trump can't bear slight Dem shifts in his swing-states like MI, WI, PA.
 
If we get Joe Biden, yeah, Biden is the most vulnerable. Especially cause he can't even land a counter-punch. If we get someone else with less hubris and whose "establishment card" is not old as the hills, then we have a fighting chance. Better yet if Dems nominate someone who has traded their establishment card for a pitchfork, look out 'cause we have demographics on our side. We just need an inspiring candidate.

You can start with one who doesn't call Americans who disagree with them deplorables or other such non-sense.
 
#10 is a big problem for dems.
Yeah, but trust me - MAGA's not playing well with much of the country either. Think of it - 50% of the country wants Trump impeached & removed. Those are remarkable numbers.
 
You can start with one who doesn't call Americans who disagree with them deplorables or other such non-sense.

She was referring to the racists and Nazis in the Trump base. Do you fall under that category? Then she didn't call you deplorable.
 
She was referring to the racists and Nazis in the Trump base. Do you fall under that category? Then she didn't call you deplorable.

And there is your side's arrogance again....Good Luck.
 
Yeah, but trust me - MAGA's not playing well with much of the country either. Think of it - 50% of the country wants Trump impeached & removed. Those are remarkable numbers.

Makes no difference to me. I plan on voting for the Green Party.
 
And there is your side's arrogance again....Good Luck.

This is a debate site. We are allowed to post claims and draw conclusions from them. I don't go around arguing with people 24/7 about politics in my real life, that's why I signed up here. It's not arrogant to clarify the deplorable comment, it's just factual.
 
Makes no difference to me. I plan on voting for the Green Party.
Well, we weren't talking about you - though I welcome your candor. We were taking about the body politic.
 
This is a debate site. We are allowed to post claims and draw conclusions from them. I don't go around arguing with people 24/7 about politics in my real life, that's why I signed up here. It's not arrogant to clarify the deplorable comment, it's just factual.
Why not? :2razz:
 
This is a debate site. We are allowed to post claims and draw conclusions from them. I don't go around arguing with people 24/7 about politics in my real life, that's why I signed up here. It's not arrogant to clarify the deplorable comment, it's just factual.

No it is arrogant to think you get to define how other people perceived what they heard your candidate say.
 
Why not? :2razz:

haha, because I grow weary of it and people have not shown an ability to argue calmly without getting upset.
 
No it is arrogant to think you get to define how other people perceived what they heard your candidate say.

Well, if you aren't a Nazi or a racist she wasn't referring to you.
 
No it is arrogant to think you get to define how other people perceived what they heard your candidate say.

I plan on using this quote the next time a Trump supporter tries to convince me Trump was just joking when he said some incredibly offensive thing.
 
Well, we weren't talking about you - though I welcome your candor. We were taking about the body politic.

I know republicans to this day who will not say they voted for Trump. They always say some variation of they voted against Hillary/the democrats.
 
If Trump were somewhat of a "conservative adhesive", it would seem like he would have been factor to a united and aggrieved conservative base delivering the House to the GOP in 2018, especially in the wake of their golden boy taking heavy fire from witch hunting Democrats, if Trump had really consolidated the base so well.

Food for thought. I could argue that when the GOP picked up the House in 2010 it did not spell doom for Obama in 2012, but I see the flaw in my logic as I am typing it. Obama had much higher approval ratings.
 
I plan on using this quote the next time a Trump supporter tries to convince me Trump was just joking when he said some incredibly offensive thing.

Feel free. It will become the most quoted post at DP in no time.
 
I plan on using this quote the next time a Trump supporter tries to convince me Trump was just joking when he said some incredibly offensive thing.

Right? Didn't Trump tell AOC to go back to where she came from assuming she was born somewhere else? How ****ing arrogant is that?


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haha, because I grow weary of it and people have not shown an ability to argue calmly without getting upset.
That is getting me pissed, too. The inability to debate in real life without taking it personal. I've got a Trumper neighbor that is that way - he takes any Trump debate as serious attacks of some sort. This is compounded by his insisting on using fake facts, getting insulted if you don't accept them. He won't discuss politics or much of anything else with me anymore, while we still politely say 'Hi' and 'Bye'. But what can I do, when he approaches me and talks nonsense? Simply nod my head? If he can't handle truth, it's not my problem.

He needs to find someone who will believe his delusions, and I'm not the guy. I can accept him as my neighbor, even if he doesn't know what he's talking about; it's no big deal to me. But he can't seem to accept that I don't think like him. No idea why.
 
No it is arrogant to think you get to define how other people perceived what they heard your candidate say.
I disagree with your specific position here, but I do admit that's a killer statement.
 
Yeah, but trust me - MAGA's not playing well with much of the country either. Think of it - 50% of the country wants Trump impeached & removed. Those are remarkable numbers.

Remarkable especially because support for impeachment AND removal was NINETEEN percent for Nixon at this stage.
We haven't even BEGUN the actual IMPEACHMENT, just the INQUIRY, and it's already fifty percent.
 
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