1 in 500 US residents has died of COVID.

[Rickeroo]

PEW, as might be expected, is towing the party line - the only opinion on COVID that the cultural left allows. None the less, sane and rational voices frequently break through the truth blockades and the memory hole censorship of the monolithic social media... so far at least.

And if you were exposed to such knowledge you wouldn't have needed to rely on PEW's unsupported inferences drawn from statistical compilations.

1) The (non Covid adjusted) life expectancy for U.S. in 2020 was 78.93 years, a 0.08% increase from 2019. (3)

2) From March 1, 2020 to March 1, 2021 there were about 500,000 Covid related or associated deaths (2). According to the methods provided by a demography study (1) the effect on a national life expectancy reduction would be about 1.5 years.

3) This small reduction would equal to US life expectancy in 2005, in other words, it would be indistinguishable in the lives of most persons.

4) By any pandemic or epidemic measure, COVID is not the society wide grim reaper made out by the panic mongers.

Here is a chart, I updated with current information, from the cited study (which had assumed a million deaths a year for COVID). It includes the 500,000 deaths from March 1, 2020 to March 1, 2021. That should be instructive to you is that while the effect on reduced life expectancy is only 1/4 of that of the Spanish Flu of 1918, the ACTUAL effect on remaining life years lost was 1/8th of that flu. Why? Because unlike COVID the Spanish Flu killed the very young, working age adults, and the old...on average people with far more years to live.

View attachment 67354079


Here is the bottom line.

COVID is heavily concentrated among the very old and sick. More than half, according to Neil Ferguson, would have died within weeks or months in any case. Such is unpreventable as it is a function of underlying conditions of age, heart disease, etc. In contrast. children and young adults are of tiny risk.

In other words, in “life-years lost” (multiplying the number of deaths by the life expectancy of each person who has died) is very small compared to a major epidemic like the 1918 flu.

The lockdowns, crashing the economy, and hyper inflation are all a result of over-reaction to an old persons disease. Now we are paying a heavy price as savings are devalued and shortages continue to vex the population (producers price index jumped to 8.3% inflation rate in last measurement).

Christ people, we are speaking of retreating slightly to the longevity of 2005, not 1805, or 1405.

1) https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035
2) https://covidtracking.com/data/national/deaths
3)https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy

Agreed. Average age of Covid death in Scotland was 79 for men and 84 for women. What they hide from you is average age of death, say in 2019.

Since many, many years of life were lost, we are left to guess as to what age people would have lived to were it not for Covid. Perhaps 112 years for men and 122 years for women.

Sarcasm aside - even liberals know Covid is a joke. They are sending people to schools, grocery stores and other venues with merely a cloth mask on. It's pretty much just posturing.

 

[snakestretcher]

But then .... it's ONLY Harvard.

Obesity is contagious

Public health officials have been working hard to account for the dramatic rise in U.S. obesity rates. Many obvious factors, such as poor diet and a ...

news.harvard.edu

"...it spreads through social networks..." according to your link. That isn't what contagion is. Try harder.

 

[snakestretcher]

We're 18 months into this - obesity rates should be at an all time low now. Just the opposite.
Just keep taking the blue pull Nemo.

Why would the pandemic result in less obesity; or do you think fat people stop eating while a virus is raging?

 

[Slartibartfast]

Why would the pandemic result in less obesity; or do you think fat people stop eating while a virus is raging?

If it wasn't for door dash, she would probably be right, but not for the reason she is currently posting.

 

[NWRatCon]

It seems to me obtusity is a more prevalent comorbidity than obesity in the current spate of COVID deaths (and denialism).

 

[NWRatCon]

"...it spreads through social networks..." according to your link. That isn't what contagion is. Try harder.

No, no, no, no, no. Stop trying. The inanity..., it burns!

 

[gboisjo]

Sure, screenwriter. Let us prevent morbid obesity through early school fitness and diet programs. Let us prevent deaths from communicable diseases such as COVID-19 through either vaccine mandates or mandatory testing and quarantines. Whatever saves the most lives in the short term and in the long run without infringing upon the freedoms of others, I am for.

But I would add: The issue at present is that those who refuse the vaccine are not simply putting themselves at risk. A communicable disease endangers both the unvaccinated carrier and those he spreads it to. I do not know of anyone who died because someone else was morbidly obese, and the obesity alone was the cause of death (and the obese person did not, say, fall on top of the other person killing them). I do not know of any Constitutional provision either written in or read into our Constitution via our jurisprudence that confers on any citizen the Constitutional right to be a free-moving plague carrier.

A breath of fresh air from a conservative.

 

[gboisjo]

I swear, these people think that ignorance is a virtue.

Sure, look at the teacher.

 

[bongsaway]

One in five hundred, in other words a nothingburger and the folks on the right will tell you so.

 

[gboisjo]

The lockdowns, crashing the economy, and hyper inflation are all a result of over-reaction to an old persons disease. Now we are paying a heavy price as savings are devalued and shortages continue to vex the population (producers price index jumped to 8.3% inflation rate in last measurement).

Total right wing, anti scientific slop as in bullshit.

 

[gboisjo]

Here is the bottom line.

Bottom line, yea right as our country approaches a million dead, all ages. Yours is a whacked out far right perspective that science disagrees with.

Covid is a dangerous no matter who gets it.

Now, lets talk about conspiracy theories or fat people, your choice.

 

[gboisjo]

Sarcasm aside - even liberals know Covid is a joke

Wow, just when I think I've heard it all, I read this shit ..I mean what planet do you live on. My cousin who wasn't fat and had no other illnesses died
from covid, he suffocated to death, he was 47 years old.

 

[beefheart]

In AZ it is more like 1 in 370.

 

[screenwriter]

Why would the pandemic result in less obesity; or do you think fat people stop eating while a virus is raging?

Because we have known for a very LONG time that obesity rates and Covid fatality rates are joined at the hip. 73% off all who die from Covid are obese - 78% needing hospitalization are obese. Common sense says ..... "Hmmmm, if I'm really scared of dying of Covid then I should lose weight and get into shape".

We already know vaccinations are less effective in obese people.

If not, they you REALLY aren't afraid of dying of Covid.

So how should a pandemic result in less obesity? Same reason a pandemic results in people wearing mask ..... and social distancing .... and taking vaccinations. Right? Isn't it ALL about saving lives? Yes? No?

And guess what? It would also result in a major reduction in the strain on healthcare. Obesity sequalae accounts for the majority of the top 10 causes of death in the United States. If those people weren't clogging up the healthcare systems with their heart disease, liver, lung, stroke, diabetes, cancers, orthopedic issues, etc. then we could handle all the Covid cases and take care of the other medical issues. It's the other side of the coin - the one where the head is that holds the brain.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

-- I edited your post in my response in order to comply with this forum's 5,000 character limit --

COVID is heavily concentrated among the very old and sick. More than half, according to Neil Ferguson, would have died within weeks or months in any case. Such is unpreventable as it is a function of underlying conditions of age, heart disease, etc. In contrast. children and young adults are of tiny risk.

In other words, in “life-years lost” (multiplying the number of deaths by the life expectancy of each person who has died) is very small compared to a major epidemic like the 1918 flu.

The lockdowns, crashing the economy, and hyper inflation are all a result of over-reaction to an old persons disease. Now we are paying a heavy price as savings are devalued and shortages continue to vex the population (producers price index jumped to 8.3% inflation rate in last measurement).

1. I do not disagree that the Spanish Flu was -- on the whole -- more damaging to American society than Covid-19 in terms of total life years lost.

2. The only thing you did to address the key point made by the Pew Research article -- that individuals who manage to live a long time are usually healthy enough to live even longer -- was to reference a throw-away comment made by Neil Ferguson at a meeting with the UK parliament.

3. And it wasn't just the Pew Research pushing back against this idea that old people dying of Covid-19 were just going to die sooner.

a) Please read this article by the Economist which references a Scottish study that made the same point as Pew Research:

Would most covid-19 victims have died soon, without the virus?

A new study suggests not

www.economist.com

Source of the data in the economist article: "Covid-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study", by P Hanlon, F Chadwick, A Shah et al., 2020; Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Italy); SAIL Databank (Wales); Public Health Scotland

b) Please read this blog article by Henry Tapper. He's appears to be some kind of investment advisor in the UK. He makes a very good point. He says look at the actuary tables. And he references data that shows that even old people with chronic illnesses aren't dying within days, or weeks, or months. Another point he makes is that someone who is 75 and has diabetes is expected to live 5 more years ordinarily. 5 years is a long time. This isn't a case of people who are just about to keel over and die only dying a few days sooner.

https://henrytapper.com/2020/04/07/...-dog-yet-let-no-one-be-abandoned-to-covid-19/

4. I haven't read any of these studies referenced in the articlesI posted, and I am just scanning the articles, but it seems the point being made is a very good one. And when you say that these old people dying of Covid-19 would be dying soon anyway, it appears as though, based on the data referenced by Pew Research, by the Economist, and in the actual actuary tables (actual data dealing with people who've died and their expected years of life remaining), you're simply wrong.

5. Your criticisms about the lockdown, quarantine, social-distancing, and damage to the economy are real and accurate, but what you don't understand is that not doing anything about Covid-19 also imposes a cost, and many studies indicate that the costs associated with not doing anything at all about the pandemic far exceed the costs associated with lockdowns and quarantines. And what I am suggesting right now, is not more quarantines, what I am suggesting to you is that people need to get vaccinated. That's the problem we face right now. Trump supporters and Republicans -- due to their political allegiance and the political propaganda they consume -- are choosing not to get vaccinated. And there is virtually no cost, at an individual level, for people to get vaccinated.

6. I think it's important to look at the Covid-19 unemotionally and rationally. However, I also think there is room for empathy, especially when it comes to informally discussing the matter with other people on this forum. I want you to know that I just found out a few hours ago that another one of my family members died of Covid-19. I find your comments about "culling the herd" to not only be factually wrong, as demonstrated above, but also callous to the point of psychopathy. I encourage you to respond to my post for the benefit of the other participants of this forum, and for your own self-edification, but I want you to know I will never respond to any of your posts again. I find your comments repugnant. I simply cannot engage in any lengthy conversation with you and also abide by the rules of this forum. Have a nice life.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Agreed. Average age of Covid death in Scotland was 79 for men and 84 for women. What they hide from you is average age of death, say in 2019.

you keep preaching that some lives are worth more than other lives (older, etc).


who taught you this vile stuff? have you ever attended church?

 

[Luce]

Agreed. Average age of Covid death in Scotland was 79 for men and 84 for women. What they hide from you is average age of death, say in 2019.

Since many, many years of life were lost, we are left to guess as to what age people would have lived to were it not for Covid. Perhaps 112 years for men and 122 years for women.

Sarcasm aside - even liberals know Covid is a joke. They are sending people to schools, grocery stores and other venues with merely a cloth mask on. It's pretty much just posturing.

At what age do you determine that a person's life is worthless?

 

[screenwriter]

At what age do you determine that a person's life is worthless?

Hmmm .... there are those who say "conception" but, I'm not among those.

 

[screenwriter]

you keep preaching that some lives are worth more than other lives (older, etc).


who taught you this vile stuff? have you ever attended church?

Who taught this vile stuff? It's what has been taught to children since the 1973 - only the "wanted" have the right to live.
You can't teach generations of children that only the "wanted" have the right to live and then pretend to be surprised when they take it to the next level. You know kids and how they love to push that envelope.

 

[Luce]

Hmmm .... there are those who say "conception" but, I'm not among those.

He was clearly talking about people 75 or older.

 

[maxparrish]

-- I edited your post in my response in order to comply with this forum's 5,000 character limit --



1. I do not disagree that the Spanish Flu was -- on the whole -- more damaging to American society than Covid-19 in terms of total life years lost.
(snipped for word limit brevity)...

As the article, written in May of 2020, is behind a paywall I couldn't read it.

No matter, I get the gist. So on a case by case basis one can show that IF a person survived to 75, and IF they had diabetes, they can expect five more years (on average). On the other hand that doesn't address what a 75 year olds expectation of even getting COVID is or what is the likelihood of it causing death. When those factors are accounted for, projections change (i.e. someone over 65 can still expect to live 'a long time').

For example: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.12.20148387v3.full-text

Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 years to 77.48 years, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-year reduction in life expectancy at age 65.

In other words, COVID has not (in the aggregate) seriously reduced life expectancy for those at age 65 ON AVERAGE.

Also, while one can quibble over whether or not if the majority of COVID cases would have died anyway in the near term, it is extremely clear that at least close to half would have. Last I checked 43% of US Covid deaths have occurred at long-term skilled care facilities. And we know the following BEFORE Covid:

75 Must-Know Statistics About Long-Term Care

Sobering data on usage, cost, insurance products, and the toll on unpaid caregivers.

www.morningstar.com

0.88 years: Average duration of nursing-home stay for men.

1.44 years: Average duration of nursing-home stay for women.

22%: Probability of needing more than one year in a nursing home, men.

36%: Probability of needing more than one year in a nursing home, women.

2%: Probability of needing more than five years in a nursing home, men.

7%: Probability of needing more than five years in a nursing home, women.

In other words, 80 percent of the men and 65% of the women won't even be alive at the end of one year (without COVID). So yes...many (at least 1/3rd) of the folks who have died would have died anyway within a year - most being oldsters.

As you don't cite the studies that you say show a greater economic (or even lost life) cost to any other alternative than the one pursued, I can't comment. What I can say is, however, is that your personal experience is undermining a rational view; one person's loss, sad as it is, is not a basis of demanding unproven policy and massive costs for 330,000,000 people.

Culling the herd is simply natural selection against those approaching life's inevitable end. We don't tell old people to go sit on ice flows near the end (as did the Inuit), but don't need to turn society into an economic wreck to mitigate what is inevitable either.

If you can't handle that - so be it.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Who taught this vile stuff? It's what has been taught to children since the 1973 - only the "wanted" have the right to live.
You can't teach generations of children that only the "wanted" have the right to live and then pretend to be surprised when they take it to the next level. You know kids and how they love to push that envelope.

you're the one who believes that some lives are worth more than others.

fix yourself first.

 

[screenwriter]

He was clearly talking about people 75 or older.

And? A human life cycle is a human life cycle. "Not wanted" on one end of the cycle is really no different than "not wanted" on the other. I've heard the term "boomer remover" used in reference to Covid. Want to pretend those people care about people 75 or older?

 

[Luce]

And? A human life cycle is a human life cycle. "Not wanted" on one end of the cycle is really no different than "not wanted" on the other. I've heard the term "boomer remover" used in reference to Covid. Want to pretend those people care about people 75 or older?

So you're okay with killing granny.

 

[screenwriter]

you're the one who believes that some lives are worth more than others.

fix yourself first.

Really? Based on? Shall I insert that obnoxious little popcorn emoji here?